3for3 said
I would have thought this was a bet range spot, for 1/3 pot, I was far off.  We are only supposed to be betting 1/3 of our range.  We do have 60% equity, but I think the reason we check so much is that it is much easier for Villain to bluff raise a polarized range here; he has all 2xs in his range, I do not. It does bet 35% of the J9ss.  Interestingly it does not bet J9s with a BDFD nearly as much.

Surprising to me as well. Not that this explains it, but I’m surprised to see a 60/40 equity split. LP vs BB ranges are usually more similar. That it is less inclined to bet BDFD suggests that the check-raise concern is indeed what’s driving the check back range. Would be interesting to deny V the option to check-raise or lock a very tight check-raising range and see how that changes your c-bet strategy. Probably better reflects the strategies of people you’re playing against anyway.

3for3 said

The river is the street I was most interested in.  My line of raise preflop; bet flop; check turn is the most overused line in tournament poker.  Most players Cbet too much, then give up on turn when called, too much.  I’d guess I am also in this camp, though I am aware of the problem, and do look to barrel with any excuse once I have bet the flop.  I also realize I need to keep some strong hands in my turn check back range, so that Villain can’t fire any 2 on the river after floating flop (A play I do against Villains who follow the B;X line routinely).

This doesn’t necessarily require having strong hands in your check-back range. It may well be more profitable just to get stubborn with the best of the marginal hands that wouldn’t be appealing turn bets anyway.

3for3 said

Of course, another way to defend this line is with a river bluff raise.  In game, I didn’t consider it, just woodenly followed the ‘bad’ line that so many others take.  So, what hands does PIO raise the river with? The weakest river raise for value is KJ (mixed) and KQ+ most of the time.  

What hands does it bluff with?  It never plays a pure bluff strategy, spreading it’s bluffs all over the place, but with very low frequency. It does bluff raise my exact hand 7% of the time.  I only gave it a 3x bluff raise size.  I am going to rerun the sim and see what happens if I give it 5x.  Ok, no big change, it mostly just uses the 3x sizing.  One thing I am surprised about is that it chooses some its Ax combos to bluff raise, when I thought those would be good enough to bluff catch.  They are not in a GTO sense.  I’d guess there are blocker effects going on there, but I am not sure how to parse that.  

I would take a close look at V’s betting strategy before acting on this. Pio probably plays pretty differently, with both flop defend and river bet ranges, than your typical opponents.

What you’re describing, with loads of different hands all bluffing very low frequencies, suggests that the choice of hand is arbitrary. The frequency matters, but the exact composition of the range doesn’t much matter precisely because there aren’t blocker effects. If a hand had a good blocker effect, we’d see a preference for bluff raising it over other candidates.

In theory, bluffing with, say Js 9s but not Jh 9h would be exploitable by an opponent who was less inclined to call/bluff 3-bet when he had the Js or 9s in his hand. But that’s the sort of thing people can’t actually deduce or build a strategy around, even though Pio’s algorithm does.

I don’t have a good explanation for the Ax, that confuses me as well. I would look at Villain’s calling/folding ranges and see what the Ax hands do or don’t block.