July 24, 2018
I am going to replay the hand without PIO comments first, then show what PIO thinks about all of the ranges for various actions.
I open ATcc UTG at 8-16 to 4K. Effective stacks are about 80K. Cutoff calls.
Flop is QsJs8c, giving me back door clubs and a double gut shot. With a board this dynamic, and one that does not necessarily favor my range, I opt to check. Villain bets 4K, and I call.
Turn is 7s, we both check.
River is 8s, putting a 4 flush and pair on board. I bet pot on the river Villain tank called with red 66.
I have myself opening about 14% of hands (Importantly for this, ATo is in my range, but KTo is not). Villain calling about 15% of hands, obviously does not have many combos of the big pairs but I did give him some small percentage of those as well. His range has more of the lower suited connectors and Q9s type of hands.
PIO thinks I should check 63% of hands and bet 37% ( I gave it 2/3 pot sized bet). Intuitively this seems like a very bad board to bet in general, I am sure I would check more than it does. It likes to bet AA and KK most. It does not bet AKss but does bet most AK without a flush draw about 2/3 of the time.
Villain bets about 1/2 of the time. Interestingly, it ‘never’ bets 77 but mostly bets 33.
In response to the bet, we only check raise about 7% of the time, mostly with sets and some ATo, preferably with a spade.
The 7S turn, we check about 86% of the time. Villain bets 1/2 of the time. His bluffs are curious to me, mostly small pocket pairs with no spades. PIO thinks Villain should keep bluffing with his actual hand, 66 no spade for example.
The river is where I thought this was interesting. I obviously have one of the worst hands I can get here with. This, and my KTs without a spade. PIO wants me to bluff all of those hands. I gave it 3 river bet sizes; pot, 1.5 pot, and all in which is about 5x pot. It split almost evenly between the two sizes. It slightly preferred the bigger bet size.
PIO never calls with his actual hand on the river. It prefers calling with 66 with a spade (duh!). The only non spade bluff catches are Qx hands.
Villain actually took a picture(!) of his great bluff catch. He then went over to tell a friend about it. He was talking in chinese, I assume, but kept saying AK. I guess he thought AK was a large part of my range, and thus had odds to call.
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