July 24, 2018
I open QQ from early position to 2.5x, we are 40 BB effective. Only BB defends. Flop is 442r. Villain checks, I bet 2BB, Villain calls. Turn is A, completing rainbow, we both check. River is a 7, and Villain bets 10BB, a little less than a pot sized bet. I call.
PIO thinks this is a trivial call. The interesting thing about it though is that it is indifferent to calling with KK! What’s going on here? The answer is that Villains check calls on the flop are mostly Ax and Kx suited that have back door draws. We obviously lose to the Ax hands, and when we hold KK we block many of the bluffs. Also importantly, it is much better to call when one of the kings in our hand does NOT block the back door flush (if the flop was SDH we want to call more with the club King).
Villain had KJo, which PIO thinks is a strict fold on the flop. Since Villain did not fold that, he has 13 more combos of KJ than he should, and therefore was overbluffing the river. Villains flop continuing range should contain all pairs, and hands with pairs, good overcards with BDF and gut shots. Some of those should be raising; the 2x hands, and the gut shot plus BDF all get raised for a total raising range of about 10%
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
I think it would be helpful if you shared the parameters you used for the simulation. Starting ranges might be a little unwieldy, but what bet sizes did you allow on each street, what size raises, etc? Among other things, this will probably be a helpful thing for me to give you feedback on 😉
July 24, 2018
Absolutely. I have been using the bet sizes chosen, and sometimes one other bet size on various streets. Usually if there was a bet, I choose that size for that street. If the bet was small, say 1/3 pot, I might choose 2/3 pot and vice versa. I will give some ranges too. Not the whole shebang, more like opener has x%, and BB has y% less certain top hands.
Of course, any input on constructing bet size options is greatly appreciated.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
The trouble you’re going to run into there is that even if your opponent used a particular sizing on the turn or river in this hand, that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t have used other sizes with other hands. Denying him those opportunities further down the game tree is going to influence his ranges on early streets. Like, if he can’t overbet shove river, that’s going to reduce the profitability of certain flop check-raises.
Allowing multiple options on early streets explodes the game tree and can make simulations really cumbersome, but on later streets it’s easier to do. At the very least you should include the “all in” option on the river, for both players. Ideally allow a small and large size on the turn, and small/large/all in on river.
Also ideally, there should be something you’re trying to learn from a particular sim other than just “Did I play this hand OK?” and that should determine the sizes you allow. Like, you were unsure about whether you should have bluffed the turn, then it’s particularly important to include multiple sizes for turn bet so that you can be sure there wasn’t any size where it would have been good.
Make the sizes pretty different from each other. Allowing both a 50% and 60% pot bet isn’t going to do much. You want stuff like 33% and 100%. You’ll get a feel for this over time, but a hint that you’ve chosen good sizings is that there are certain hands with a clear preference for one size or the other, even if some hands split between them. If every hand splits between them, there’s probably an optimal size somewhere in between.
July 24, 2018
Agreed re sizing. Excellent point about limiting bet sizes on flop. Fortunately that is also a good practical solution for dry flops. Wet/dynamic flops will want to have two sizes, I’d think. Also, donk bets on dry flops seem very rare too, so unless the board looks like it, I don’t even allow donks, like on this hand.
I know I should be using some overbets on later streets, but they still seem pretty rare out in the real world.
For sure this tool is more than I just played this one hand ok, but that is a fun place to start. I have been looking how PIO plays the rest of my range on all streets and learning from that, too.
I am working on another hand that I will rerun before I post, with your suggestions in mind.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
The all-in on the river is a convenient way of making sure your opponent has some way of getting all the money in. Of course there are times when it will matter how the money goes in, but less so than you might think. The river overbet will compensate for the fact that your opponent might choose to use a larger bet size than you allowed if you check behind the flop or something. It just ensures that no matter what line you take, he can always apply max pressure eventually. If you don’t allow that, then you can get some weird results like less slowplaying if he has no way of getting all the money in without raising the flop.
If you’re confident that you can predict what sizes your opponents will use, then go for it, but when in doubt, always make it possible for them to apply max pressure on the river.
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