I was at Run it up Reno.  For those of you who haven’t been, this is a must tournament.  I’ll post on that elsewhere.  Onto the hand:

I raise cutoff with J8s and 50BB effective stacks; BB calls.

Flop is AAJr, none of my suit.  Villain checks, and I check back.  PIO bets 78% of its range here, mostly with 1/3 PSB.  FWIW, the hand that it checks back the most is my exact 2 cards.

The turn is an offsuit 7.  Here is where I am surprised at what PIO thinks.  It checks the turn as Villain about 89% of the time.  Very often when the flop checks through, PIO will start betting turn as OOP.  What hands does it bet?  Here is no great surprise, it bets Ax for value, KQ,KT,QT,T9,T8,98 as bluffs, 22-55 for protection, and the occasional 7x as well.   When it does bet, it bets pot (I gave it 1/2p, p).  It might even prefer larger sizing if I gave it the option.  This is a spot where Villain can polarize effectively.

It mostly calls my J8s though it is barely a call.

River was a 6, and Villain bet 1/2 pot again.  I called.  PIO thought this was a mix, but I am not sure real life Villains are double barreling here with their misses.  

What should my river bluff raises look like?  In game, I didn’t consider bluff raising with my actual hand.  PIO turns its smallest pocket pairs, and stuff like 86 and 76 into a bluff.  I guess 76 is the best bluffing candidate, since it blocks 77, and 66.  

I called (not happy with this in retrospect) and Villain showed A2