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PIO 3
3for3
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July 22, 2019 - 11:30 pm
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I open UTG2 with 65ss to 2K at 800BB (with ante).  Effective stacks are 40K.  Good young Asian woman calls BB.

 

Flop is 7s3d2d.  She checks and calls a 30% pot bet. 

Turn is a 6, no new flush draw, we both check.  

River is a 3, no draws complete, we both check.

PIO likes my flop bet.  It considers the turn a mix.  I guess we can get called by worse, and get value for some draws.  It does bet about 2/3 of the time.

The river is what puzzled me at first.  As played, this felt like an easy check back.  PIO  bets 95% of the time.  What is it thinking?  Well, of course it doesn’t think. Let’s try to figure out the rationale here.  There are a fair number of draws that missed; diamonds, AW are the obvious ones.  

We are normally thinking (well, at least I am) that we want to be called by worse when bet, and worse is usually a lesser pair.  Here, PIO is targeting the Ax in Villains range.  Do real life Villains call here with Ax (She actually had ATo with a back door diamond draw).  I think in general they do not, but perhaps their checking range is so weak that we can bet 2d pair for value.

Maniackid11
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July 23, 2019 - 7:11 am
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Absolutely. I would call some of the time here with AT. This type of board should favor the BB range. I would even lead the river with AT to something like 75% pot. Would you call me with your pair of 6s?

I like the flop bet-sizing. I would fire the turn. If she does have two diamonds/over cards, there are a lot of river cards that could change the dynamic of the board, so we want to make our money on the turn. I agree with PIO about betting the river, I just don’t know about sizing. I think this is where exploitative stuff comes into play. Do you think a good, young, Asian chick would call a river bet with AT after you fired the flop and turn? If so, what size bet do you think she would call? She should call you some of the time after you bet 30% flop and checked the turn. I would check/raise you here, Danny! You calling my river check raise with your pair of 6s? club

3for3
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July 23, 2019 - 2:25 pm
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As played, I am 100% calling the river if Villain bets.

What are you doing to a turned check raise?  I think that it is a fold, but it sure isn’t a great spot.

I think there is no chance Villain would call river with AT if I had bet 3 streets.  I do think there is a good chance she will turn a missed draw into a bluff on the river. If I do bet the river, it seems like a slam dunk fold to a check raise, against most of the world.  

Maniackid11
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July 23, 2019 - 2:41 pm
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Good! You should call me 100% of the time on the river as played. My hand would be A3 though not Ace-ten. But only against you 🙂

It depeneds. Is the Villain capable of bluffing? If so, I am not going anywhere to a turned check-raise with the intentions of Hate-calling a river bet. Not all the time, but here, yes.

I don’t know if villain would call all 3 streets with Ace high. So if I was you and bet the turn, I would bet smaller on the river. Just in case she’s curious.

Haha, just dont ever fold to me on the river, and you’ll be fine 🙂 50% of the time

Foucault

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July 24, 2019 - 9:37 pm
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3for3 said
Do real life Villains call here with Ax (She actually had ATo with a back door diamond draw).  I think in general they do not, but perhaps their checking range is so weak that we can bet 2d pair for value.  

Some do, some don’t. Your hand is almost always good, though, so there’s little to lose by betting. And if you don’t bet, you’re getting exploited by all those who do call. If you don’t find the right bluffs here, you’re getting exploited by those who don’t.

I think the problem you’re running into is thinking in terms of the absolute strength of a hand (second pair) instead of in terms of ranges and incentives. Villain should call your small flop bet with loads of unpaired hands. Most of those are still unpaired (Ax, overs and backdoor flush draws, etc) on the river.

Your own range is heavy on unpaired hands as well. You bet lots on the flop (I assume), and you have a lot of incentive to bet pairs on the turn. So when you check back turn, you also have many unpaired hands. That gives Villain incentive to value bet her stronger hands. Any pair can probably be a value bet for her, so while she can and should check some pair or stronger hands on the river, she’s very heavy on unpaired hands. If she folds them all to a bet, then your bluffs would be profitable.

Essentially, both of your ranges are pretty weak because of how little money has gone into the pot so far. Hands don’t have to be high in rank to be worth putting another bet into the pot.

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