“You’ll never execute true GTO strategy against anyone”

Well I think this hardly says it.

 In Will Tipton’s first book, Expert HUNLHE”, he estimates a full strategy solution for HUNL would require at least 5000TB just to store. In Foucault’s Range Construction series (which is based around game theory), which I am battling through presently, (having needed to review each video an average of seven times each in order to digest properly the information!), Andrew’s focus is on an example hand of a HU situation; indeed a frequent reference point in the earlier episodes is a toy “Ace King Queen” HU game. My point being we are still trying to work towards a game theoretical solution to HU play; attempting to “play GTO” at a full table, or in a multi-way pot is a pipe dream or self-delusion.

I understand and agree with florianm that it is easier to exploit those players on which we hold a large sample of hands. 

When a game theory solution to NLHE is exacted, the game will be solved. As far as I know no computer yet in existence has been able to solve the game. Even when it is possible to exact the solution, how is a human going to be able to absorb and utilise the vast amount of information? All we can hope to do as mere mortals is to try and play a balanced game. Good balance is the best we can hope for I think. 

Andrew, 

(Sorry to divert the thread a little)…

I just listened to your last video in the range construction series today at work. You cite a few books at the end there. Tbh I can imagine already that The Mathematics of Poker will be over my head, and I will just get depressed and never finish it (Chapter one page 3 will be as far as I get I expect). I tried to source Poker’s 1% to no avail. 

I was a little surprised you never mentioned Will Tipton’s work. I have a minimal maths background and am able to understand most of it, and it is pretty comprehensive and accessible.

I did hear you praise it on a podcast you did with Carlos Welch.

Is there any reason you feel it is not a good starting point for the study of game theory, or as further reading after working through your series? 

As always, great job with the videos btw. I have really enjoyed them and learned a great deal.

Interesting…

Maybe I shall take a look at MoP. But flamin’ Norah! $40 for Miller’s book?

TC yes it is very hard to quantify a sample size at which we should turn away from our attempt at a GTO strategy in order to exploit a perceived weakness in villain’s strategy; at least, the question is too vague. And the stats converge at different rates. We might, for example see after 50 hands that villain has a VPIP of 60% and PFR of 2%. These stats converge quickly, and pretty soon we might be confident we have noticed a probable exploitable tendency in villain’s strategy. But other stats take far longer to become relevant; 4betting stats, for example, will take a long time to collect as the situations arise far less often. It just depends on how large the flaw in strategy is and where it occurs. 

Personally I am almost exclusively a tournament player, so for me it is not true that I have more hands on cash game players. I understand your point though, as most of my hands are on 180 man MTTsng regs. 

I believe we should attempt to play an unexploitable strategy when either we feel we are up against a superior villain, and also when we have no experience whatsoever vs. a particular player. In other words, we should attempt a GTO strategy as our default, unless we have a particular exploitable villain tendency in mind.

But with regard to stats and HUDs and hand databases in general…

I am not sure where you play online, but alot of regs I have spoken to, (including myself), believe HUDs will soon be prohibited on Stars and Full Tilt, as they have been elsewhere recently. If you play on Stars/Full Tilt I would advise not getting too attached to your database until the smoke clears and we can see where we stand. Stars have made some pretty ambiguous statements recently; in one such announcement they advised of changes to 3rd party software through major changes in Stars’ own software…which got me thinking they might include some kind of HUD within the Pokerstars client, which would be available to all. I cannot imagine that they would make HH’s unavailable.

Hello Matt,

We conversed once before…around an article you wrote “Polarise is an adjective not a verb”…not sure if you remember. FWIW I always find your writing interesting and insightful. 

So you recommend Miller’s book then? I am sure I saw a print copy one time, but thus far I have only sourced it as an e-book.

Perhaps you will give me your weathered and earmarked copy for…shall we say…$5? (Joke).

Although in all seriousness perhaps a resource-sharing scheme might be a good idea for TPE?

The problem I seem to have with math-intensive books is that I get so bogged down trying to decode the thing (I do not possess any real further mathematical education other than high school maths), that I end up forgetting what the over-arching point is in the first place. 

I have some kind of OCD when it comes to math-heavy poker books whereby I become obsessed with understanding every detail, often to the detriment of the theory itself. I will literally spend hours trying to decode a paragraph.

Someone bought me “Practical Poker Math” by Pat Dittmar as a present, but it became some kind of sick Chinese mind-torture as I became deranged working through every problem. I did manage it in the end. The only book which has thus far defeated me is Killer Poker by the Numbers. I make periodic stabs at it, but thus far I believe I am on page 8, utterly defeated. I have had it so long it has become faded by the sun. I’m not sure if it’s the maths or the writing, but I end up fearing permanent brain seizure every time I pick it up.

Funnily enough I don’t struggle too badly with Tipton. He seems to make a heavy subject light somehow.

I totally believe Heads Up poker is a massively under-rated skill. It is where the largest pay jump occurs in a tournament. I am sometimes amazed at the seeming lack of HU experience I see from some pros even. I have had PokerSnowie from day one and always warm up for 20mins or so HU with it.

Also, from what you said above Andrew about multi-player games and GTO solutions I don’t expect one is losing out any by studying HU game theory scenarios? Its beyond the scope of my limited knowledge that one!