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trying to use equity calculator to evaluate play after the fact–am I doing it right?
Yagasmurf
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October 19, 2014 - 11:54 pm
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Question on how to use equity calculation vs EV vs ICM to evaluate a home tourney

I am new to using an equity calculator to evaluate my game once I get home from playing, and I am not sure if I am doing it right. I am sure this will seem elementary to most of you, but what I like about tournamentpokeredge is that people are helpful as opposed to other sites where I would be ridiculed for this question.

Here is an example

Final table of $30 buy-in tourney (19 players now down to 10)
Payouts 50%/25%/15%/10%
Blinds 500/1000/200

Average chips ~12,450

UTG (villain) has me covered
Hero 11,200 chips
Next five people to act have 4-7 BB’s
CO Chip leader
SB average type stack
BB slightly above average stack

First hand after the break and we are just moved to the final table. I have been playing with 3 of the shorter stacks and they are clearly waiting to try to survive and cash

3500 in the pot (blinds and antes)

UTG makes it 3000 to go and I have AdKd

I put him on QQ-99,ATs+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KQo.  I am discounting AA and KK since I have blockers

If I shove and I am called I am risking 11,200 to win 25,900 (including my bet and his call)
( I could also win outright if he folds)
I am also assuming that the CO/SB/BB will fold since UTG can go all in, my bet represents a large portion of their stack, and there is no reason to get crippled with so many short stacks they can bully or wait out. I think the short stacks will wait for a better spot.

Here is where I get confused
My equity calculator (that I just used for the first time) says I have 60% equity against his range.
I. Do I use the 11,200 (my bet)/25,900 (with my bet, the pot, and his call) =43% to evaluate this shove
Does this make the shove mathematically correct since I have 60% equity?

2.  Or do I just use EV and say that 60% I win 25,900 (8820) and 40% I lose 11,200 (-4480) for a +EV of 4340?
Does this make the shove mathematically correct (or am I just saying the same thing twice)?

3.  Does ICM change all of this? 

I not happy about just calling because If I just call with ~25% of my chips and villain C-bets on a flop that I miss, I may have to fold with only 8BB’s left (and 200 chip antes for a Q of 4), Also this is too strong a hand to fold pre-flop. So a shove seems like the best play.  Does anyone believe that people are less likely to want to be crippled on the first hand of the final table after returning from a break?

Just FYI, everyone folded to the villain who tanked/called with AQo and hit a queen on the flop. The result is not important. I am trying to learn to use the equity calculator so I can change villain's ranges and see when I should call/shove/fold. Any constructive criticism or explanations are welcome.

Foucault

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October 20, 2014 - 11:59 am
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Glad to see you learning these valuable tools. To put together an EV calculation, you have to consider all possible outcomes, though sometimes you can eliminate very unlikely ones to make your math easier. So in this case, there are two likely outcomes:

1. Everyone folds.

2. Villain calls with the range you gave him, everyone else folds.

There are two less likely outcomes:

3. Someone behind you cold calls, everyone else including PFR folds.

4. Someone behind you cold calls, PFR calls, everyone else folds.

Then there are really unlikely outcomes:

5. Two people cold call, PFR folds.

etc…

Start by worrying about just 1 and 2.Call F the likelihood that Villain folds (you can get this by comparing his calling range to his opening range).

You need to look at

F * 6500 is what you win when everyone folds, times the likelihood that everyone folds.

(1 – F) * .6 * 25,900 is what you win when the PFR calls, times the likelihood that he calls (which is equal to one minus the chance that he folds).

Add those two terms together and compare them to your current stack to see whether you are better off shoving or folding. In this case, as you are a favorite even when called, shoving would clearly be correct, ignoring ICM and those other possibilities I said we could ignore for now.

The math gets a lot more complicated when you factor in the possibility of a cold call, although it will happen enough to be relevant (maybe 10% of the time). It may be worth just looking at your equity vs a cold calling range to see whether you should adjust your total up or down a bit based on this risk.

ICM is relevant here, but learning to calculate that is an entirely different skill. I'd start just by learning to do basic equity calculations like this one.

Yagasmurf
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October 20, 2014 - 2:54 pm
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Thanks, this helps alot. Looking forward to your 100th podcast !

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