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Tough spot with top pair good kicker and lots of action in front
joesmoe88
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March 11, 2015 - 2:24 am
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So this hand happened last night in a pretty great 2/5 game at Borgata. Readless this would probably be a snap muck but given what I have observed from both opponents, it becomes really close in my opinion.

There are two main villains in the hand:Villain 1 is in the bb and is definitely the spot in the game. He hates to fold the bb and ive seen him call with hands as weak as 52ss. He also has a tendency to lead with most of his value range and flopped draws. He has about 800 behind to start the hand. Villain 2 is a mediocre reg who plays predictably aggressive. Def not afraid to 3bet a reasonable range. He starts the hand with 425. 

So two limpers in EP and I make it 30 with KQ from MP. 4 callers total and we go to a flop of K42ss. Vilain 1 in the bb leads for 125. I flat. Folds to Villain 2 on the button and he shoves for 395 total. BB doesnt take very long but also doesnt snap call which I have seen him do frequently. He actually tries to shove but had already said call. Given the ranges I give each villain it becomes a very close spot. 

I will give results after I get some responses and I will also give you the results of the calculation I did afterwards and the exact ranges I gave them.

Foucault

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March 11, 2015 - 1:09 pm
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Is your Q a spade? I'd feel better about folding if so. I think I'd have to do some math for this one, and since you've already done it, I'll just wait to see your results. I agree that it's close. I think I'm leaning towards calling. Seems like the guy shoving is unlikely to have AA/KK/AK or any two-pair combos, and could jam with KJ or maybe even KTs if BB is loose enough. Do you think he calls with KJo pre? Makes a big difference I think. Is BB donking any Kx?

DTUSC
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March 11, 2015 - 1:11 pm
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I'm not much of a cash game player but I'm working on my ranging and calculations so I'll give it a shot.  Please feel free to correct me. 

Given the action I'm assuming you are expecting a 3-bet pre if someone had AK.  Sounds like V1 could have any two suited cards and pp 99 or lower.  V2 could have broadway cards, suited connectors, or 99 or lower.

Since we took AK out of their range you are essentially playing with TPTK after the flop.  

After the flop bet I would put V1 on straight and/or flush draws, 55-99, 42, Kx, or sets, so I feel your call is okay here

V2 shove limits his range to KT-KQ, As3s-As9s, or sets

V1 shove/call narrows his range to flush draws, 42, Kx, or sets 

I think they are in a good spot to set mine here and would likely lead out if they hit it on the flop since the flush draw is possible.  

You win if both opponents have flush draws or weaker K, and the turn and river are blanks.  You are getting roughly 4:1 ($270 to win $1045) so you only need to win 20% of the time.  Flush hits about 33% of the time, weaker King ends with 2p about 10% of the time, so it looks good so far.  If V2 has nut flush draw then you have to also worry about the A, which hits about 10%.  

If you are ahead at the moment then it seems worst case would be you win just under 50% of the time, but how often are you not ahead?  If it's less than 40% likely that you are ahead of both hands when you make the call (60% likely one has a set or 2p), then it's a fold, more than 40%, it's a call.  Hope this all makes sense and I'm not completely off the rails here.

joesmoe88
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March 11, 2015 - 3:02 pm
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Ok so my Q is not a spade. When I did the calculation afterwards I gave villain 1 every value combo. So every Kx, every two pair combo and 22/44. I also gave him every spade combo. Villain 2 I gave 22/44 and every Axss combo and QJss. I dont think villain 2 is too likely to just shove K10 or KJ. He hasnt been at the table too long so he probably doesnt know how wide villain 1 is. With those ranges, I am actually 50% which is alot higher than I expected to see. In game I tanked for about 4 min and folded. Sucks to get it in drawing dead in this spot and without really knowing the math it seemed very close. 

Results: Villain 1 had 4xss and villain 2 has Axss and the board bricked and villain 1 wins with a pair of 4s.

 

Pretty interesting spot given the wide range of villain 1. One of those spots where your instincts are actually drastically different than the math.

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