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should cbet turn?
nkarapet
Grinding Micros
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May 8, 2019 - 9:58 pm
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Ignition Hand No Limit 50, 6 handed

Seat 1: UTG [ME] ($62.44 in chips) , dealt  [Kh Kd]

Seat 4: Dealer ($24.15 in chips)

Seat 5: Small Blind ($6.96 in chips)

Seat 6: Big Blind ($50 in chips)

 

UTG  [ME] : Raises $1.50, Dealer : Calls $1.50, Big Blind : Calls $1

Standard opening, got called by BU and BB. BB range is mostly PP, Broadway, suited Ax, Kx, Q8s+, J8s+, suited connectors/gappers, may be even suited double gappers… BU range is much tighter, PP (maybe even not all pp) 9Ts+, KJs, may be AQo. 

*** FLOP *** [2d Td Qs] ($4.75)

Big Blind : Checks, Hero bets $3.12, Big Blind : Calls $3.12

CBet was pretty big, so I would assume that BB will call pretty not very wide here, will fold some A high without draw, some backdoor draws, but will still call weak pairs and good draws. may be 65%? I would also assume he will slowplay his monsters (is it right?) 

*** TURN *** [2d Td Qs] [9s] ($10.99)

Big Blind : Checks, Hero Checks

Should we CBet turn here?

Well, is 9s actually a good card for us? Monsters in BB range are about 18%, 20% FD, rest are almost drawing dead against KK. If we CBet turn BB will probably fold all this weak hands and if check raised we probably do not like it. by not CBeting we are taking almost 20% risk to lose the pot, but by checking back we may give BB an opportunity to bluff us? So may be checking back is a right move here? We might get BB fold some weak FD like 3d4d, 4d5d, 3d5d or even worse, BB can check raise with these hands, putting us in weird spot. Ax, Kx, Qx, Jx FD will call. FD + pair will call, even FD with gunshoot will call. So, I convienced myself 🙂 checking back is right move here.

*** RIVER *** [2d Td Qs 9s] [6d]($10.99)

Big Blind : Checks, Hero Checks

Checking back river is the best play here I guess, since we have good show down value, but not enough to value bet.

Big Blind : Showdown [Ad Jd Td 6d 2d] (Flush)

 

I know I answered my own question here, hope you do not mind still posting it 🙂

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