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Live: Exposed card changing pre-flop decision?
MovieFX
Vancouver, BC, Canada
Balla
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July 4, 2016 - 1:04 pm
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Hi,

Was in an interesting spot and I’m curious to hear what you all think.

$1/$2 NLHE

Dealt to me in MP: KspadeQclub

Seat to my right limps.

I raise to $10

Folds to SB who 3-bets to $30  (FWIW, he covers me and I have around $250 I think)

Seat to my right folds, exposing the Aspade

I decided to ignore this information and fold rather than get in to a potentially reverse-implied-odds situation. However, I tanked a little bit longer thinking maybe I should call, having seen blockers to all 3 top cards and 1 nut flush draw. It also shifts my spade to a nut flush draw should 3 spade come out on the flop or turn.

1. Does this information change things significantly? 

2. How do you play KQ facing a 3-bet? I tend to think of KQ and AJ about the same and tend to fold facing aggression preflop (readless). Too tight?

 

Cheers,

The Riceman
London UK
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July 28, 2016 - 7:34 am
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I have absolutely no idea how it changes anything!

I only write this because I saw no-one had replied…I try to answer unanswered posts, out of politeness. (I am British, so I cannot help myself…or should that be instead – we are British, so we cannot help ourselves…this is in fact an interesting linguistic quandary – the “singular” Royal “We”, is not served well by the reflexive pronoun “ourselves”; perhaps the sentence should read instead…”We are British so we cannot help oneself”.

Somehow, this seems more appropriate. I am not so pompous to know that “ourselves” is a reflexive pronoun…I Googled it!

I could imagine someone like Nate Meyvis would need to come on and explain how many combinations are possible. Maybe you are able to work this out yourself FX, for sure it is light years away from my capabilities, although I have studied combinatorics and factorials in a book which was slated in book reviews, but which I loved…Pat Dittmar’s Practical Poker Math. He breaks down the odds of every Hold’em situation and how they arise. I worked my way through every single calculation, although arguably a lot of the situations are similar. I read it in order to build my theoretical understanding.

Highly Riceman recommended!

Personally, here, I am calling IP with k q and take a flop. I’m certainly not folding! I don’t play cash, but I expect people still attack weakness. Is SB a reg? If so, and if he knows you are a reg also, he may be attacking you because he knows you will be attacking the limper light often. 

That is the best I can offer here, and you probably knew all this anyway, gl FX!

MovieFX
Vancouver, BC, Canada
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July 28, 2016 - 7:49 pm
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lol.

Interesting point about attacking opens in cash. I didn’t really consider that. I’m not sure people do that much in cash games. I’m pretty TAG though so it isn’t like I open a ton. I also doubt the live hand sample size is big enough for anyone to think they have spotted an exploitable tendency in this raise-and-fold-to-3-bet situation. 3-bets are actually pretty rare in this game for it to come up often enough and if I am folding 60% of the time I’d have to get 3-bet a bunch before they would know even this %. I’d call with KQs here even though I folded KQo, for example. I’m still wondering if seeing the A blocker should have swayed me to the other side of the fence to call.

AGVocalist
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August 1, 2016 - 8:41 pm
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Do you have any history with the SB? His he capable of squeezing? Anyway, I ran some calculations. There is $44 dollars in the pot and you need to put in $20 to call. If his perceived range is 12% (again, if he is squeezing it could be way higher)  then he is only a slight favorite preflop. Now, lets remove the As. Against a range of 12% that removes 18 possible hands. Based on this knowledge and fact that the pot is giving you 2.2 to 1 to call AND you have position, calling is a no-brainer. I hope I figured this correctly. 

amiodarone
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August 24, 2016 - 11:25 am
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So did everyone at the table see the exposed card or just you?  If everyone saw it, were you able to get a live read on the SB?  

If everyone saw the exposed card, and you don’t have a read on the SB, I think a fold might be right from a range standpoint.  You look awfully capped if you’re calling a 3-bet in that spot.  

theginger45

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September 7, 2016 - 9:24 am
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Don’t think it really changes anything here. Calling preflop in position is marginal, probably not great with an offsuit hand. KQs is a call all day, but KQo is pretty weak.

Since SB’s 3-betting range is probably very tight to begin with, the exposed As doesn’t actually make their range much weaker, it just weights it away from AA/AK and towards other hands. The interesting part is that your hand also blocks AK, AQ, KK and QQ, so it’s sort of tough to really put villain on much of a range.

However, we obviously can’t assume that just because we have blockers and one Ace is dead it’s impossible for villain to have strong hands. In order to actually start thinking about changing our play here, we need to actually have reason to think villain can be 3-betting wider or 3-bet bluffing some frequency, but the problem is that most of villain’s wider 3-bets in that spot (AJ/AT) and most of their most likely 3-bet bluffs (Ax suited) are also blocked by the As, so we’re pretty much right back where we started.

I think the only thing losing the As really does is make it slightly more likely the SB has hands like 99-JJ, but it doesn’t really make life much easier for you here. The fact that the Ks becomes the nut flush draw in the event that 3 spades come out is almost a total non-factor, since 3 spades will come out very rarely – in fact, the reality that there’s one fewer spade in the deck probably makes it less of a good spot, not more.

Generally I think it’s over-complicating things a little to try to make decisions based on things like exposed cards when we haven’t yet established a clear expectation of what villain’s range actually is. I think “what is the SB’s likely 3-betting range here?” is a much more useful question to ask than “how does the exposed As affect the hand?”

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