So we are in a .25/.50 NLholdem home game. 5 players are left since one busted early, one forgot to come , and one kept texting he was coming later, but never did. Buy ins were $25-$50 (personal choice). A little about the villain in this hand. Late 40's business owner that I have played with several times before. A little looser than TAG preflop, understands position, but rarely bets big with air (I've never seen it), especially post flop. After our first session a few years ago, he remarked that I was aggressive, but has turned up the heat himself a little lately when he has a good part of the flop. Hero and villain are the two big stacks at the table.
Preflop 5 handed:
Hero ($77.75 from a $50 buy in) (KK) Raise $1.75 (this has been one of our standard raises since it takes a red, white, and blue chip usually with some comment from someone other than the bettor about the flag or being proud to be an American)
Villain ($58.25 from a $25 buy in) Call
Dealer Fold
SB call (after saying,” ok I call one time”)
BB fold
POT: $5.75
SB is likely to call with almost anything once he has money in the pot, but will fold to pressure post flop if he misses. Villain's call makes me think he has the following range: 5,5-10,10 (with JJ-AA (maybe even 10's) I think he 3-Bets,which he has done without showdown 2-3 times during the evening, ). AKo-A9o, any suited Ax, suited connectors (maybe down to 5,6 or so—not so sure about this part of the range)
FLOP:
A 10 6 rainbow
SB check
Hero Bet $3.50
Villain call
SB fold
POT: $12.25
I bet here partly as CB, partly to fold out the SB, and also figure if Villain doesn't have an A he might fold. I think he loses the suited connector part of his range (I doubt he would chase a gut-shot here). we also lose 6,6 and 10,10 because he would re-raise with them hoping I have an A. All of his A's are still in play as top pair, or some Ax's giving him 2 pair (A 10 most likely if this is the case). He might float mid pairs, but I doubt it.
TURN: A
Hero $6.25
Villain call
POT: $24.75
I bet here partly as a blocking bet, because if I check and he bets larger, I won't know here I am. If he 3 bets I can fold easily. When he calls I am almost sure he has an A either as 3 A's or a fullhouse and is slow playing it.
RIVER: A
Now I reconsider. Chances are he does not have an A, since there is only one left. If he doesn't have a A, I have the nuts. If he was chasing, he'll fold to any bet, if he has any part of the board I need to get value.
Hero: Bet $8.75
Villain: instantly all in. At first he doesn't even know how much he has, then methodically counts out $38 when I ask how much
My heart sinks. As I think, I remember Nate saying on the thinking poker podcast several times that, in these low limit games, when a guy overbets the pot on the river that, despite the odds against it, he has the nuts (not blaming him, just going over my thought process). I try to reconstruct the hand and can't really establish anything but an Ax hand (especially A broadway; A6, A10). I look at him and he seems so strong. Even as I tank and go over the hand he seems way to comfortable. I fold. He shows Q 10 offsuit for a full house and I show the KK's.
I never considered double broadway hands in his range preflop (If so which ones should I include–see below about Q 10 offsuit). If I did, should I have kept K 10 off & suited and J 10 off in his range after the flop. I think KQ & QJ fold after the flop for sure (he's not a gut shot chaser). If you put these hands in his range is this a fold or call?
As a side, early in the game, the SB had won a hand and showed Q 10 offsuit; making a joke about always winning with it. Since then, several players have also won with Q 10 offsuit, both before and after this hand. (I later won back the money calling an all-in by him with his 2 pair losing to my straight)
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