I found this hand on 2+2 in the medium stake cash games forum. I'm studying hand histories before bed in my hotel room during the seminole hardrock poker open. i think this hand took place in england. i don't look at 2+2 much anymore, and i sort of don't get what a lot of these guys are saying, so i thought i'd bring it here. I can't figure out a way to hide my post, so I'm going to just post my analysis at the bottom. Please think/post before reading it, as I laid out enough stuff there that I think it'll be difficult not to get an unbiased answer without doing so.

i'm rereading pokers 1%, and this is the second nuts. i can't fathom how this would ever not be in our continuing range. i don't fully grasp how it works in multiway pots, but i think that if 70% of hands should be continuing (grabbing this number from miller), then that number gets taken to nearly 70% should be continued to the 3bet and then the 4bet between the 3 of us since the remaining 5 players to act aren't supposed to continue with very much..so.

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Hero (UTG) £10000
Villain 1 (UTG+2) £3500
Villain 2 (UTG+3) £3000
Villain 3 (CO) £10000
9-Handed table, rest of stack sizes are whatever but assume everyone else has £2k.

Hero has KK raises to £30.
Villain 1 re-raises to £120.
Villain 2 calls £120.
Villain 3 re-raises to £500.
Folds to hero. Hero?

Villain 1 is mediocre pro, 3 betting merged value range with a few bluffs. Will play his hand honestly in this situation I think, but might be inclined to flat some stuff if I flat.
Villain 2 is recreational, not terrible but tilting a bit if I remember correctly. His range is pretty wide here and he 4 bets QQ, AK+.
Villain 3 is a good winning pro but is very LAG preflop. He has already cold 4bet once in a similar situation. I think he flats certain hands here so he is at least somewhat polarised but I'm not really sure.
Hero is viewed as winning pro, villains will have seen me 5bet light pre when deep but not very often. Basically if I continue everyone will assume I have a very strong range, which I obviously do.
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5 people left to act ( after villain 3 with 10k 4bets) with KK+/AKs, .73% (small number going ahead and multiplying by 5 but will be less than that), 3.5% of the 70% of hands should be continuing to the 4bet from the remaining crowd. the 3bettor and hero share the overwhelming majority of the remaining 65% if we follow hero' lead and discount the flatting possibly tilted guy who called 120. i'm not sure exactly, but if we treat the original 3bet like a pot bet and need to continue with 70%, that would mean that we'd do something like 70% x 70% for what we (and then the 3bettor) continue with, and in the 3bettors shoes, he would continue with 70% of his 3bet range (that number is still shared between the table). i'm not ure how much of the continuing ~65% is distributed between hero, the 3bettor, and the caller, but even if it's somehow evenly split among the three of us (i believe this to not be true based on how the tilty decent guy likely plays in this spot capping his range, but i'm not sure), that's talking about continuing with 23% of our opening range.


if our opening range is {22+, AQs, AK}, that's 7.39% of hand. .0739x.23 is still .0172.
since we wouldn't fold out the better part of our range and continue with the worse part of our range, KK would be in the continuing range.

if our opening range is wider and more speculative {22+, AQs+, AK, A2s-A5s, T9s, JTs, QJs, KQs}, that's 9.8%. .098x.23= 2.25% of hands. I don't know why we wouldn't have a bluff in this spot, but we could continue with QQ+, AKs, A2s, JTs and have 2.26% right there

I wanted to go to bed an hour ago, but it's really bothering me how many people said fold in the thread! I'm really bad at reading people through text, so I don't know how much of it was trolling but really I can't figure it out.