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KK after the flop...what would you do?
tjpete96
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July 16, 2014 - 3:22 pm
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Playing live at a $1/$2 NL. Table just opened up and is about 3 hands in. No reads on anyone…I only recognize one other player but I have not played live in a few months. I only bought in for $110 & won the pot prior without showdown. I now have $120. I am in MP with KK. One limper and I raise to $13. Villain with a $200 stack immediately on my left calls and so do both blinds and the EP limper.

We see the flop 5-handed and it is 3-4-5 rainbow. EP checks and I bet $40 into a pot of $65. Leaving me about $70 left. Villian on my left pops another $100 on top putting me all in. Everyone folds to me.

Am I ahead or behind? Call all in my remaining $70 or fold? This is my first post. I do well in tourneys live and on line but suck at cash for both. Just looking to see if I made the right decision.

michae1di11on
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July 16, 2014 - 5:23 pm
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I think if the quick math I did is correct you have to call 70 to win 285 altogether? You only need 24% equity to call here. He will have a set sometimes but he may have JJ or QQ. It's quite high variance to play cash games with less than 100bb for this reason – once you make a hand and bet, your getting a great price to call when someone raises for the rest of your chips. 

 

I don't know much about playing live but on the pot odds  alone, I don't know if you can fold here, surely your correct more than 1 in 4 times.

Foucault

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July 16, 2014 - 9:41 pm
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michae1di11on said:

I think if the quick math I did is correct you have to call 70 to win 285 altogether? You only need 24% equity to call here. He will have a set sometimes but he may have JJ or QQ. It's quite high variance to play cash games with less than 100bb for this reason – once you make a hand and bet, your getting a great price to call when someone raises for the rest of your chips. 

Can't say that I agree with this. I guess technically folding away your equity in the pot is variance-free in that it just results in a line going straight down. But getting to make +EV calls is pretty clearly preferable to folding and losing the pot 100% of the time.

Foucault

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July 16, 2014 - 9:45 pm
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Have you ever used an equity calculator before? You should practice putting your opponent on a range and calculating how much equity you have against that range and how much you need to call. It's not a matter of “Am I ahead or behind”, of course he will play some hands better than KK like this but that doesn't mean you should fold because he will also play plenty of worse hands like this. You have to learn to estimate how you are doing against all of the hands he could play this way, and that requires doing some homework away from the tables. FWIW this is a very clear call.

michae1di11on
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July 17, 2014 - 10:57 am
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Foucault said:

michae1di11on said:

I think if the quick math I did is correct you have to call 70 to win 285 altogether? You only need 24% equity to call here. He will have a set sometimes but he may have JJ or QQ. It's quite high variance to play cash games with less than 100bb for this reason – once you make a hand and bet, your getting a great price to call when someone raises for the rest of your chips. 

Can't say that I agree with this. I guess technically folding away your equity in the pot is variance-free in that it just results in a line going straight down. But getting to make +EV calls is pretty clearly preferable to folding and losing the pot 100% of the time.

Do you not think that buying into cash games with 55bb results in higher variance plays than 100bb? I'm not saying he should fold. I just think if he opens for 55bb and cbets into 5 people, once he gets raised, he'll have over 1/3 of his chips in the pot and it will be difficult to play pots that don't involve getting all in very often. FWIW I didn't say he should fold.

Foucault

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July 17, 2014 - 2:03 pm
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I understand that, you're saying that there are hands that you have to fold when you are deeper but that you can get all in with when you are shallower. That's true, and essentially what's happening there is that you are getting leveraged out of the pot. Although you'd have a +EV call if you could get all in, your hand will play poorly against future betting and consequently you have to fold. You're getting forced off of your equity, it's not a good thing and it definitely does not make you less likely to experience losses because you are deep-stacked.

 

I'm not sure there's a necessary relationship between variance and stack depth, but most likely deeper stacks = more variance because there are more decisions to make, and every one of those decisions has variance attached to it, and the biggest decisions/pots are of course bigger than they are when you have less money on the table.

tjpete96
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July 18, 2014 - 5:33 pm
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Thank you both for your thoughts. I am aware of equity calculators but have not done much with them. Do you recommend any one in particular? Preferably free. I do agree that being short stack didn’t help…unfortunately I was stuck and that was the last of the cash I brought with me. Normally I would buy in at 100 BB.

SIGABA
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July 20, 2014 - 3:14 pm
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Yeah this is a call.  I think a lot of opponents would do this w/ 66-AA, 56, A6.  He could very well have A2 or a set or like 45, but you are beating sooo much of his range you have to call.

 

As far as equity calculators that are free:

PokerStove

PokerStrategy.com – Equilab

 

I like pokerstove the best but they both do the same thing.

tjpete96
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July 23, 2014 - 11:21 pm
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Thanks to all again. By the way, he had 34s and I lost. Was rather tilted that he would call a $12 raise with only the blinds, one limper and 4 left to act.  Oh well.

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