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Great bluff spot. What size would you use?
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Carlos
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January 31, 2016 - 10:33 am
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This is a question I initially started as an email to Andrew Brokos, but I recall him saying that he likes to answer these publicly so that everyone can benefit so I’ll post it here and link him to it.

This is my regular 1/2 game.

Effective stacks are $300

Laggy BTN opens from 10. I 3bet QhTh from the SB to 30. Laggy player in the BB calls as does BTN.

Pot 90. Flop Kd8c6h 

I decide not to c-bet because BB’s flat seems strong given that he knows I play tight. It would take multiple barrels to get a fold post and I don’t have a good double barreling hand. It checks around.

Pot 90. Turn 9d

Since no one bet as I would usually expect them to do on the flop with top pair or better, I decide that I will bet with my double gutter. I expect that I can barrel on a lot of rivers to get folds/value from the majority of their calling ranges. I bet 55 and only BB called. He didn’t take much time.

Pot 200. River Ad

Since BB called turn without much thought, I knew he did not have a very strong hand. This seemed like a hand he would never fold or raise. These include…

Straight draws that missed like QT, JT, QJ,

One pair like 9x, maybe some Kx,

Weak two pair 98s

Flush draws that got there QJdd, QTdd, JTdd, T8dd, 87dd, 75dd, 54dd

I figured the river was a great bluff card for me. He didn’t have many Ax combos in his range given that the river card was the Ad. He didn’t have many flush combos in his range given that the Ad,Kd,9d were all on board, he called a 3-bet OOP from a tight player without closing the action, and he might have raised the turn with some combo flush draws. I felt like he would only call a river bet with a flush and A9.

 

My questions are.

1. What do you think of my line so far?

2. What size would you choose for this river bluff?

Foucault

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January 31, 2016 - 11:09 am
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I don’t hate this line, but I’d bet the flop. With weaker players you really need more of a hammer than a scalpel. They look for excuses not to fold, and although I don’t think your flop check has to be weak, it’s easy for them to choose to interpret it that way. I do actually think your hand has some good barreling potential, not against a K obviously but against the many pocket pairs in his cold call range. Your backdoor straight and flush draws are what I’m mostly talking about here.

As played, I like betting something like half pot to rep more thin value hands, though realistically I wouldn’t recommend betting AQ here. But your bluff targets are not ambitious ones. Your hand isn’t great for shoving to rep flushes, though, as you have no blockers.

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Carlos
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January 31, 2016 - 2:30 pm
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My bad. I did not have a backdoor flush draw. The 6 must have been a spade.

 

I like what you said about a hammer over a scalpel. Does this apply more to the size of the bet or the number of streets? In shallow stacked spots like this 3-bet pot or hands where there is a straddle, I am unsure if I should skip an early street to leave more of a hammer for later or if I should bet big on the early streets with less information about how the board will run out.

 

Results:

I felt that my betting range was depolarized and that my bluff targets were not that ambitious as you said. This calls for a smaller sizing in order to A. give me a good price on my bluffs and B. get some of my marginal value hands paid off. In this game, absolute sizing is relevant and 100 seemed big. I wanted to do what I would do with a value bet here so I bet 75. I would play KK, straights, and small flushes the same way against most people, but maybe I should have been thinking more villain specific and unbalanced in this spot. Once I bet, he tanked for maybe 10 seconds while saying I hope you dont have AK and then reluctantly called. I mucked and I believe he had 98. I am surprised he called with that, but what blew my mind the most is that he didnt even seem to notice the flush and straight possibilities which is extremely rare.

 

Against players like this, what do you think about not having a 3-bet bluffing range in this spot at all? Seems like they will just call my value hands anyway, so why not take all my speculative hands post flop, wait til I get there, and then bet expecting calls like this one?

Foucault

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January 31, 2016 - 10:20 pm
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I wouldn’t expect him to fold 98 to that bet anyway so if that’s what he called you with it doesn’t indicate any problem with the bluff (though not realizing there are straights and flushes gets to my point about the hammer vs scalpel). I guess hammer can apply to both the line and the size, but the point is mostly that you don’t want to rely on some sort of representational “this is how I would play X” sort of thinking and more just bet-bet-bet until you reach the threshold where you think he’ll fold your target hand.

If he never folds pre, then three-betting hands like this starts to blur the line between bluff and value, but that’s fine. I mean, you have 46% equity against a top 30% range, so even if the only thing the 3-bet accomplishes is preventing the BB from overcalling, it may be worthwhile. Though that’s less of a concern when the original raise is on the large side, which this would be if the game is 1/2?

florianm1
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February 3, 2016 - 5:30 am
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hmm i def bet flop, bet turn, shove river. 

For exploitative reasons i dont like a small bet as villains in my local cash games are pretty big stations for <0.75PSB. 

Foucault

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February 3, 2016 - 12:23 pm
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A 25% range already seems pretty stationy to me. You realize V is SB, not BB, right? I’d try {TT-22, AQs-A2s, K8s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 96s+, 85s+, 74s+, 63s+, 53s+, 43s, 32s, AQo-ATo, KTo+, QTo+, JTo}. I think the best of those hands should be 3-bets and the worst folds, but strikes me as a reasonable range for a loose passive.

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