March 11, 2015
2-5 NL Live (500 max buyin)
BB villain: asian in his mid 20s…played with him only 2-3 pots so no particular read. stack = 260
utg1, utg2 limps,
Hero (stacksize=600) raises to 25 with KK from CO (My normal raise size is 15 in this game and add 5 for each limper),
villain from BB calls, utg1 calls and utg2 folds. (95 pot).
flop: Kc7c5h
villain checks, utg1 checks, I bet 40…I bet small to get called by 7x, medium pocket pairs as well as draws…villain calls from BB and utg1 folds…(175 pot)
turn: 8c
villain checks, I check.
river: 2d
villain bets 200 leaving behind 35….
i tanked for 1 min and asked him question why are you betting so much but did not get any reaction…when i asked him would you so if i fold then he smiled and conformatbaly answer that he would show one card…i said why only one…i smiled again…i interpreted this as he was comfortable enough and felt that this big bet is value from either flush or straight…since it went check check on the turn, villain might have felt that he needed to overbet the pot for value…and I folded….
It was very difficult to fold top set…any thoughts would be appreciated…
Ivellis said:
Starting with the flop, I would bet bigger here, more like 75% pot. You can get called by all sorts of worse hands, and your best time to get a good sized bet called and start building a pot is here on the flop. Your ideal target is a lower set, though you probably won't have trouble getting it in no matter what you do here against a set. You can get called by any king, smaller pairs, flush/straight draws or even random high cards that call you because they think you're c-betting with a draw or air.
Betting a certain sizing isnt about the current hand we have now, its about how we play our range. You should not be betting different sizes depending on different holdings on this one static board.
Ivellis said:
I think it's a mistake to check back the turn. I think you will lose a lot of value if play scared of draws in spots like these. It's not excessively coordinated like a 4 straight or 4 flush board, and most of the time you are really ahead here. I would bet at least half the pot here again, and hope to get called by some of the previous hands and things like draws that have become pair+draw combos.
I agree. Betting the turn is necessary. We have the top of our range for non-made flushes and we can easily get value from worse hands including bare Acx hands, 2pairs, straight draws, medium PPs with a club etc. If we are raised on the turn i think we can possibly look at a fold depending on the sizing and how the villain has been playing.
For the river, the real question is whether or not he's going to bluff or thin value bet with a worse holding than top set some % of the time. From a BE standpoint we need to be making this call quite a bit unless we know he never bluffs or value bets worse.
What does your range look like on this river taking this exact line? Start from preflop and give opening range, then what you cbet and check the turn. We can then see how much of our range we need to call this river.
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