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facing river over bet with top set?
THWG
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December 28, 2017 - 4:12 pm
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Playing a live 2/5 game yesterday I have $1500 in front of me have table covered. Guy to my left has a roll of hundreds loud and shoving 80% of hands for $200 which was min buy in. He has done this 6-7 times already with hands like 86o and J4s. I have KK in the cutoff. I have 2 limpers in front of me I decide to limp behind hoping he would shove again and hopefully would be isolated which has happened a few times already. UTG was a good german player that traveled to Jax just to play poker. The guy folds this hand and 2 others limp behind go to flop 5 handed.

Flop: KclubQspade7heart. UTG leads for $40 I call everyone else folds. He has approx 1100 in front of him. Dont think anything else to do on this board as its rainbow minimal draws and I’m so strong. 

Turn: 4clubHe leads again for $45. Now I want to start building pot I raise to $120. He tank calls I think this was to small in retrospeck Wish would have made it more 150ish but I have position and so strong wanted a call. and get another street on river. Im thinking JT, KQ, AQ, AA, AJ, AT especially club combos of these. Semi bluffing on flop picks up equity on turn.

River: 5club He checks I bet $150 He then tanks shoves all in. Im now hating that I bet but way to strong to just check behind. So I have call approx 940 to win 1300 So I have to be good 44% of the time maybe one of the straight draws would be a bluff especially with AclubAt this size think he has nuts or nothing. Maybe monster under bed but really think he has it and tank fold Thoughts? 

He shows AclubAdiamond

Just dont see people check over shove on river in a live game as a bluff ever. This is the the one capable guy. Still dont know if this was a good fold .

Foucault

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December 29, 2017 - 7:57 pm
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River is a very close spot. I think less important than what you do on the river is what you didn’t on earlier streets, which is build a bigger pot. Although I don’t think betting the river is anything close to a mistake, the fact that you are thinking it might be goes to show just how much weaker your hand is likely to become, relative to where it is on the flop. That’s why you need to build the pot early, rather than slowplaying until the board has gotten scary enough that you don’t really relish the prospect of putting money in anymore.

On flop, Villain bets into four people. Whatever he has, he likes it, and he probably isn’t going to fold to a raise. The fact that you are “so strong” should make you LESS likely to slowplay, not more.

A call isnt’ the only thing you want on the turn. You also want a bigger pot. And to some extent, you have to choose between those things. The larger you raise, the more likely you are to get a fold and also the more likely you are to get a bigger pot. The thing is, there are many hands out there, including JT and club draws, where a fold and a call of a bigger raise are BOTH better for you than when V calls a smaller raise. Also, although the size of your raise has some influence on whether your opponent folds, it isnt’ a strictly linear relationship. Like, a raise of 100% pot doesnt’ get twice as many folds as a raise of 50% pot. To some extent, the mere fact that you raising shows strength regardless of the size, and usually you get proportionally fewer folds the larger you raise.

Your ultimate goal, when you flop the nuts, is to get all of the money into the pot. when you’re deep, you don’t accomplish that by calling and making tiny raises (your turn raise was something like 20% pot).

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