January 16, 2014
This is on Bovada cash game. Villian's stats are something like 5/12 over 30 hands, could've been card dead but probably on the tighter side.
The questions I have are what do you think about flop sizing, the turn check (I figured I had most of his range drawing slim, and another diamond could be either a false bluffing card or false value card for him, and I couldn't get 3 streets and be good anyway), and most importantly what do you do about the 1.5x river bet????
Bovada $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em – 6 players –
Hero (BTN): $132.95
SB: BB = $91.00
BB: BB = $97.85
UTG: BB = $124.8
UTG+1: BB = $17.85
CO: BB = $207.86
Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with A A
2 fold, CO raises to $3.00, Hero raises $9.00, 2 fold, CO calls $6.00
Flop: ($19.50) 586 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $9.75, CO $9.75
Turn: ($39.00) 4 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero Checks
River: ($39.00) 3
CO bets $60.25, Hero???
Flop sizing: too small. I prefer ~2/3 pot here, maybe even little more due to the connectedness of the board.
Turn check: I think this is absolutely fine. We have decent equity with nut flush diamond draw that we dont want to get c/r off. Our hand is essentially a bluff catcher.
River: I prefer a fold, we don't beat much at this point (2prs, sets, straight). Villain rep's a straight or flush and we have nut flush blockers so I dont think we are beating much of his range here. Do you have any reads that he is going to spaz out here with a low set or complete air?
When villains tend to overbet jam or make ridiculous sizings more often that not they have it in my experience
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Flop sizing is fine. I think 1/2 potting your entire range is a fine strategy in position in a 3-bet pot. I imagine folding is exploitable since you block most of his nutted hands, but against a presumed nit it's a good idea nonetheless. It's pretty hard for him to show up with air after calling flop, and while your check is a good reason for him to turn some pairs into bluffs, I doubt he's good enough to do that.
January 16, 2014
He basically doubled his buy in within those 30 hands, and I'm ashamed to say I wasn't paying attention so I have no idea how that went down. The only read I had was he was on the tighter side, so I don't think he would flat a 3b OOP with a lot of hands that really smash this flop; 56, 67, 78, 89. So a lot of his calling range with worse range are over pairs, which would call 1/2 or 2/3 just the same. I've been studying balance lately, and at the time I thought I would like to be able to make this bet with AK, and be able to bluff certain turn cards which would be easier with 1/2 flop bet instead of 2/3. I think I was just leveling myself, there's no reason to have your whole range perfectly balanced at anonymous Bovada tables.
Edit: I started typing my reply before Andrews post posted.
If you think alot of his range are overpairs which are going to call 50% or 66% pot, wouldnt you want to charge them more?
I think he is going to have sets here a decent amount (flop/turn). As Andrew pointed out, being an unknown probably isnt good enough to turn even those into bluffs on this river and I think if he were betting those for value he would bet smaller to keep your calling range wider.
How have you been studying balancing your range?
Foucault said:
Flop sizing is fine. I think 1/2 potting your entire range is a fine strategy in position in a 3-bet pot. I imagine folding is exploitable since you block most of his nutted hands, but against a presumed nit it's a good idea nonetheless. It's pretty hard for him to show up with air after calling flop, and while your check is a good reason for him to turn some pairs into bluffs, I doubt he's good enough to do that.
Why is 50% pot betting a fine strategy for all flops in a 3bet pot? Is this because we take the lead as the agressor from our 3bet and we have more manouverability on turns and rivers?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Kalculater said:
Foucault said:
Flop sizing is fine. I think 1/2 potting your entire range is a fine strategy in position in a 3-bet pot. I imagine folding is exploitable since you block most of his nutted hands, but against a presumed nit it's a good idea nonetheless. It's pretty hard for him to show up with air after calling flop, and while your check is a good reason for him to turn some pairs into bluffs, I doubt he's good enough to do that.
Why is 50% pot betting a fine strategy for all flops in a 3bet pot? Is this because we take the lead as the agressor from our 3bet and we have more manouverability on turns and rivers?
Yeah, with a low SPR and a considerable range advantage (your 3b range should be a lot stronger than his call 3b range), it doesn't require a large bet to put a lot of pressure on him as he will still have to play OOP to you on two more streets, so he can't just be like “oh sweet 3:1 odds I callz!”
January 16, 2014
In my experience with Bovada river overbets are rarely a bluff, however they are also almost always exactly that nuts. Not nutted hands, the true nuts (or at the very least a full house on an otherwise really wet board). One particularly painful hand comes to mind where I there was 2 possible straight flush combos and I had the ace high flush, and I knew I was beat but couldn't lay it down (I'm not given this villian credit for 78; even if he did flat OOP, which I don't think he would do, he would c/r the flop a lot with it). If he had a 7 that is not the size would make it to get value out of AA or KK. On Bovada they almost always quickly mash the pot button. I'm not saying I would fold to the smaller pot size bet, I'm just saying I wouldn't feel as good about it. So discounting a 7 a little bit, and the fact that he doesn't have the True Nuts, I decided AAx was the only single pair that I'm getting to the river and calling with.
Results: I spend about 90% of my time bank typing in the chat about how much of a sicko he was, then made the call. He turns over TT. I was chatting with him and another player at the table and they were like “I/he could easily have a set or 2P” and I told them “there's no way sets or 2P make that bet on that board”. That bet reps the nuts which he can't have. I told them I'm not sure it was a good call are not, and I'm still unsure.
I don't have a lot of 100nl hand, but I do oodles of 50nl hands. I think I'll do some poker tracker reports and see if I can confirm whether my intuition about river pot size bets (nutted hands) and overbets (true nuts) are correct and see if they still hold up in 3b pots. I won't be able to get to them this week as I have family in town.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
FWIW 9d7d would be the True Nuts.
It’s important to distinguish between two things. The larger the bet, the more polarized a Villain’s range should be. In other words, a straight probably shouldn’t be shoving 1.5x pot here. So in that sense, the large bet thing isn’t a tell or some Bovada-specific tendency (I’m always skeptical when people claim that everyone on a certain site plays the same way) but rather fundamentally sound poker.
It’s not that a large bet necessarily restricts people to the True Nuts, though. It just means they wont’ have thinner value bets. They could/should still have some bluffs in their range. So it’s important to distinguish between two different claims: “they always have the nuts” vs “they have polarized ranges but not thin value hands”.
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