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Facing huge river bet on super wet board
JD
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November 23, 2014 - 6:51 pm
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This is on Bovada cash game.  Villian's stats are something like 5/12 over 30 hands, could've been card dead but probably on the tighter side.

 

The questions I have are what do you think about flop sizing, the turn check (I figured I had most of his range drawing slim, and another diamond could be either a false bluffing card or false value card for him, and I couldn't get 3 streets and be good anyway), and most importantly what do you do about the 1.5x river bet????

 

Bovada $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em – 6 players – 

Hero (BTN): $132.95
SB: BB = $91.00
BB: BB = $97.85
UTG: BB = $124.8
UTG+1: BB = $17.85
CO: BB = $207.86

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is BTN with Adiamond Aspade
2 fold, CO raises to $3.00, Hero raises $9.00, 2 fold, CO calls $6.00

Flop: ($19.50)  5diamond8spade6diamond (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $9.75, CO $9.75

Turn: ($39.00) 4diamond  (2 players)
CO checks, Hero Checks

River: ($39.00) 3club

CO bets $60.25, Hero???

Kalculater
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November 23, 2014 - 8:44 pm
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Flop sizing: too small. I prefer ~2/3 pot here, maybe even little more due to the connectedness of the board.

 

Turn check: I think this is absolutely fine. We have decent equity with nut flush diamond draw that we dont want to get c/r off. Our hand is essentially a bluff catcher.

 

River: I prefer a fold, we don't beat much at this point (2prs, sets, straight). Villain rep's a straight or flush and we have nut flush blockers so I dont think we are beating much of his range here. Do you have any reads that he is going to spaz out here with a low set or complete air?

 

When villains tend to overbet jam or make ridiculous sizings more often that not they have it in my experience

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November 23, 2014 - 10:14 pm
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Flop sizing is fine. I think 1/2 potting your entire range is a fine strategy in position in a 3-bet pot. I imagine folding is exploitable since you block most of his nutted hands, but against a presumed nit it's a good idea nonetheless. It's pretty hard for him to show up with air after calling flop, and while your check is a good reason for him to turn some pairs into bluffs, I doubt he's good enough to do that.

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November 23, 2014 - 10:33 pm
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He basically doubled his buy in within those 30 hands, and I'm ashamed to say I wasn't paying attention so I have no idea how that went down. The only read I had was he was on the tighter side, so I don't think he would flat a 3b OOP with a lot of hands that really smash this flop; 56, 67, 78, 89. So a lot of his calling range with worse range are over pairs, which would call 1/2 or 2/3 just the same. I've been studying balance lately, and at the time I thought I would like to be able to make this bet with AK, and be able to bluff certain turn cards which would be easier with 1/2 flop bet instead of 2/3. I think I was just leveling myself, there's no reason to have your whole range perfectly balanced at anonymous Bovada tables.

 

Edit: I started typing my reply before Andrews post posted.

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November 24, 2014 - 12:00 am
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If you think alot of his range are overpairs which are going to call 50% or 66% pot, wouldnt you want to charge them more?

 

I think he is going to have sets here a decent amount (flop/turn). As Andrew pointed out, being an unknown probably isnt good enough to turn even those into bluffs on this river and I think if he were betting those for value he would bet smaller to keep your calling range wider.

 

How have you been studying balancing your range?

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November 24, 2014 - 12:02 am
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Foucault said:

Flop sizing is fine. I think 1/2 potting your entire range is a fine strategy in position in a 3-bet pot. I imagine folding is exploitable since you block most of his nutted hands, but against a presumed nit it's a good idea nonetheless. It's pretty hard for him to show up with air after calling flop, and while your check is a good reason for him to turn some pairs into bluffs, I doubt he's good enough to do that.

Why is 50% pot betting a fine strategy for all flops in a 3bet pot? Is this because we take the lead as the agressor from our 3bet and we have more manouverability on turns and rivers?

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November 24, 2014 - 12:16 pm
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Kalculater said:

Foucault said:

Flop sizing is fine. I think 1/2 potting your entire range is a fine strategy in position in a 3-bet pot. I imagine folding is exploitable since you block most of his nutted hands, but against a presumed nit it's a good idea nonetheless. It's pretty hard for him to show up with air after calling flop, and while your check is a good reason for him to turn some pairs into bluffs, I doubt he's good enough to do that.

Why is 50% pot betting a fine strategy for all flops in a 3bet pot? Is this because we take the lead as the agressor from our 3bet and we have more manouverability on turns and rivers?

Yeah, with a low SPR and a considerable range advantage (your 3b range should be a lot stronger than his call 3b range), it doesn't require a large bet to put a lot of pressure on him as he will still have to play OOP to you on two more streets, so he can't just be like “oh sweet 3:1 odds I callz!”

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November 25, 2014 - 3:26 am
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In my experience with Bovada river overbets are rarely a bluff, however they are also almost always exactly that nuts.  Not nutted hands, the true nuts (or at the very least a full house on an otherwise really wet board).  One particularly painful hand comes to mind where I there was 2 possible straight flush combos and I had the ace high flush, and I knew I was beat but couldn't lay it down (I'm not given this villian credit for 7diamond8diamond; even if he did flat OOP, which I don't think he would do, he would c/r the flop a lot with it).  If he had a 7 that is not the size would make it to get value out of AA or KK.  On Bovada they almost always quickly mash the pot button.  I'm not saying I would fold to the smaller pot size bet, I'm just saying I wouldn't feel as good about it.  So discounting a 7 a little bit, and the fact that he doesn't have the True Nuts, I decided AdiamondAx was the only single pair that I'm getting to the river and calling with.  

 

Results:  I spend about 90% of my time bank typing in the chat about how much of a sicko he was, then made the call.  He turns over TspadeTheart.  I was chatting with him and another player at the table and they were like “I/he could easily have a set or 2P” and I told them “there's no way sets or 2P make that bet on that board”.  That bet reps the nuts which he can't have.  I told them I'm not sure it was a good call are not, and I'm still unsure.

 

I don't have a lot of 100nl hand, but I do oodles of 50nl hands.  I think I'll do some poker tracker reports and see if I can confirm whether my intuition about river pot size bets (nutted hands) and overbets (true nuts) are correct and see if they still hold up in 3b pots.  I won't be able to get to them this week as I have family in town.

Foucault

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November 25, 2014 - 11:23 am
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FWIW 9d7d would be the True Nuts.

It’s important to distinguish between two things. The larger the bet, the more polarized a Villain’s range should be. In other words, a straight probably shouldn’t be shoving 1.5x pot here. So in that sense, the large bet thing isn’t a tell or some Bovada-specific tendency (I’m always skeptical when people claim that everyone on a certain site plays the same way) but rather fundamentally sound poker.

It’s not that a large bet necessarily restricts people to the True Nuts, though. It just means they wont’ have thinner value bets. They could/should still have some bluffs in their range. So it’s important to distinguish between two different claims: “they always have the nuts” vs “they have polarized ranges but not thin value hands”.

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