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October 21, 2012
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I will use this thread to post some hands I play in my local cash game. It's a 1/2 game with frequent straddles between $5-20 from various positions. The play is generally loose and it's quite easy to get paid off on a big hand regardless of image. I am by far the tightest and brokest player in the game. I feel like only 2 or 3 of the regulars are capable of exploiting it and I play balanced vs them accordingly.
It's a 9 handed game, but I put the dealer in as “D-Ficticious Hip Hop name” so as to keep the physical arrangement of the players correct in my mind. She sits up top. I spell the names out in the first hand they play and use abbreviations in later hands.
My general strategy is to play with lower variance and just get paid off on my nutted hands or decent hands when they have something marginal and cant fold. I only bluff the 2-3 good players occassionally to keep them honest (B Rabbit is a good friend and we discuss hands regularly. We're probably neutral EV against each other) and I only bluff the stations when they have made it clear they have absolutely nothing and my air is worse than their air. Due to this strategy, most of my questionable hands will be exploitive hero folds.
Tuesday 121013.
Hand 1
D Roc is an unknown player, but seems smart. I have no FE on any hand I put him on and I dont beat much on the river. My biggest mistake is playing with only 1 buy in. This is the first hand of the night.
Hand 2
Figured D Roc's range for raising a UTG limp from UTG+1 was strong. He knows that bet is not gonna thin the field out so he has something he is willing to play OOP in a bloated pot. Any significant 3-bet commits me and I think he may fold dominated aces anyway. I actually have 250 in this hand so a shove may not be the worst idea. I decide to take a low variance approach and call here due to only having one buy in.
On the flop, I figured no one had anything so I wanted to make my hand look like a steal. I planned to stab, check back if called by 1, bet again if called by 2, and then bet the river if checked to on the turn. When he check raises, I put him on AA, KK, and maybe AK. If he is able to turn a hand like AQ or QQ to a bluff like this, more power to him. I think that is a very effective and higher level move. I've never seen anything close to it in this game.
Hand 3
Down to 200. No money on me to reload. SB is active. I dont know what the hell he is doing with this raise. He is the type of player that overbets big hands because he doesnt want to get drawn out on. He could have a set, two pair, an overpair, possibly AT, KT, but it's unlikely to be a draw unless it is QJhh or 87hh. I dont think he plays Axhh this way.
Hand 4
Won a pot so I am back up to an even 400. Eminem is a station. He can be bluffy once he has led and barreled a few streets but I dont know what his donk means and one this big multiway felt strong to me. Honestly, I was probably just happy to be back to even with rent being due the next day.
Hand 5
Im up to 500 which is a 100 profit and the night is coming to an end. Mike the 5'8 has damn near all the chips, but I expect him to be less bluffy this late in the night in order to lock up his big win. I expect him to play AQ+, KK+ this way. Based on that read, I think I should call flop, raise turn, and shove river because he will call a shove with AK for sure and I could tell if he has AQ by looking at his face when I raise the turn. Instead, I played like a bitch because I would have literally jumped off a bridge had I lost a 500 stack that late in the night.
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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Hand 1 I think I like putting a raise in on the flop with the plan of getting all of the money in. It helps us avoid tough decisions later plus if a spade rolls off it could kill the action. as played i think i fold river.
October 21, 2012
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Killingbird said:
Hand 1 I think I like putting a raise in on the flop with the plan of getting all of the money in. It helps us avoid tough decisions later plus if a spade rolls off it could kill the action. as played i think i fold river.
What range are we putting an unknown, but seemingly smart player on when he pots this flop.
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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loxxii said:
Killingbird said:
Hand 1 I think I like putting a raise in on the flop with the plan of getting all of the money in. It helps us avoid tough decisions later plus if a spade rolls off it could kill the action. as played i think i fold river.
What range are we putting an unknown, but seemingly smart player on when he pots this flop.
Limp calling, id say something like Ax, broadway and small pairs. Something like KJ, KQ, QJ with a spade could make some sense in hindsight. If im in his shoes I might even limp call some 89s kind of hands. I think he raises KK and QQ pre so TT is probably the only set we have to worry about. I dont really think we are ahead much on the flop, but we have heaps of ways to win the hand and we know what he DOES NOT have which is the prettiest card in the deck. so if we make it like $100 here and then jam turn here he is in kind of a gross spot.
October 21, 2012
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I guess my line of reasoning is that
1. we aren't ahead of much on the flop.
2. we have very little FE with anyything less than a ship and even that's gonna get called a lot because it looks so weak.
3. if we are somehow ahead, very few turn cards can change that.
4. we get a ton of extra info by seeing what he does on the turn.
I do think a flop raise in interesting. It seems to be a rare spot where it could be correct to raise to see where you're at. It's not gonna get better to fold or worse to call often. Third pair is not really worth protecting. But the information you gain if he just flats and checks on a blank would be valuable. That would indicated he doesnt have a monster. That said, I think the pot would be so big at that point that he would probably be correct to call a turn shove with the vast majority of his range and he would probably be ahead on the turn if a blank hit.
I could be way off base here, but this hand doesnt feel as straightforward as it seems when I range the guy. I'm sending this one in to Thinking Poker.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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If B Rabbit is who I think it is, that's a brilliant nickname.
Hand 1 – I like your flop analysis. You don't need much FE to raise the flop, but you do need some. As played I'd actually fold turn. I know your hand looks pretty, but realistically you have at best 12 outs and quite possibly fewer, and not much in the way of implied odds. You need 33% equity to call a PSB on the turn, and I don't think you have it.
Hand 2 – Requires a strong read to make such an exploitable fold, but I could easily see it being correct.
Hand 3 – 3-bet it pre-flop. Such a small raise from that player = not a monster 100% of the time. You could easily be ahead, plus getting it heads up in position against him with the initiative is a great outcome. Believe it or not, this is a much lower variance move than just calling. I think you'll end up winning the pot like 75% of the time that you 3-bet, vs losing the pot 75% of the time if you call, plus not infrequently getting in a lot of awkward postflop spots like this one. As played, good/trivial flop fold. Would be tough in a HU pot but with so many still to act behind you, easy fold.
Hand 4 – Looks like a tough but good fold. FWIW this is a disaster if he'll overvalue top pair, but given your read I like the fold.
Hand 5 – I expected from your description to hate this more than I do. If you're really confident he'd stack off with AQ it's a pretty big mistake, but he probably has a quite narrow pre-flop 3betting range and just calling down is OK, particuarly given your risk-aversion, against that range.
October 21, 2012
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Foucault said:
If B Rabbit is who I think it is, that's a brilliant nickname.
Hand 1 – I like your flop analysis. You don't need much FE to raise the flop, but you do need some. As played I'd actually fold turn. I know your hand looks pretty, but realistically you have at best 12 outs and quite possibly fewer, and not much in the way of implied odds. You need 33% equity to call a PSB on the turn, and I don't think you have it.
Hand 2 – Requires a strong read to make such an exploitable fold, but I could easily see it being correct.
Hand 3 – 3-bet it pre-flop. Such a small raise from that player = not a monster 100% of the time. You could easily be ahead, plus getting it heads up in position against him with the initiative is a great outcome. Believe it or not, this is a much lower variance move than just calling. I think you'll end up winning the pot like 75% of the time that you 3-bet, vs losing the pot 75% of the time if you call, plus not infrequently getting in a lot of awkward postflop spots like this one. As played, good/trivial flop fold. Would be tough in a HU pot but with so many still to act behind you, easy fold.
Hand 4 – Looks like a tough but good fold. FWIW this is a disaster if he'll overvalue top pair, but given your read I like the fold.
Hand 5 – I expected from your description to hate this more than I do. If you're really confident he'd stack off with AQ it's a pretty big mistake, but he probably has a quite narrow pre-flop 3betting range and just calling down is OK, particuarly given your risk-aversion, against that range.
Glad you liked B Rabbit. Cant wait to talk to him about these hands at lunch tomorrow.
Hand 1: I considered folding turn, but I am just not that good yet. A lot of people there would call a shove on the river with the J of spades if a spade hit. But I'm not sure this guy would and I'm not sure some of the others would against me, the guy who never bluffs (this does not include the ones there who verbally say “I know you got it because you never bluff…sigh, I call…good hand. *drops head*)”.
In hindsight, I like calling flop folding turn best (because I literally think my FE is miniscule), clicking back flop to $50 to give him worse odds to call (he'd need 40%, but probably have over 50%) when I shove turn second, and what I did the worst.
Hand 2: I could be wrong, but I dont think this guy is good enough to recognize my bet as weak and turn a strong starting hand into a bluff. That line is so freaking sick, but he'd have to be sure I AND Mike da 5'8 (biggest station ever) would be able to fold top pair.
Hand 3: Your line makes a ton of sense. I was gun shy from being broke and at the time I wasn't good enough to see how much sense that makes. After reading this, I am one notch better. Plus I think this guy is scared of me because he knows I am a nit. He is one of the ones I bluff often post flop in heads up pots. Haven't occurred to me to cold 3-bet him. He'd snap fold and show and then go on about how tight I am. (“I wouldn't lay this down to anybody but you. You gotta give action to get action.” Yadda yadda yadda. You just got owned bro. I'm Brokos trained.)
Hand 4: Oh thank God! I was sure you were going to kill me for that one. It felt right. 'm happy with the decision.
Hand 5: I am 100% sure he would stack off with AK. I dont think he would stack off with AQ, but he would let me know he had AQ by looking stressed and tank calling if raised the turn. In which case, I would value bet about half pot on the river (which he would call) instead of value shoving if he looked comfortable as if he had AK (which he would call anyway knowing he is chopping at best). My guess is he would 3-bet a turn raise with KK+ and just call/call with AK. Damn, I like this line so much better now.
Once I have a real roll and am able to think through these nuances in game as lucidly as I do after the fact, I am going to be the captain of the flight to Valuetown. Buckle up bitches.
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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i should qualify everything I am posting by saying that I am an MTT donk cash fish… 
October 21, 2012
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After studying hand 1 at lunch with my buddies…
I think D Roc leads like this with hands he thinks are best that he wants to protect like Kx, 2pair, set of tens. I forgot to remove JJ+ from his range as hands he probably wouldnt limp UTG with. This didnt come up at lunch, but I think the other good hands like 2nd pair plus draw would more likely lead smaller or check call. So I mistakenly said I was definitely behind, but I think my equity is between 47-53% depending on what hands you think he leads with. The range I give him puts it right at 50% so mathematically it shouldnt matter what I do.
The problem with raising is that if he only shoves straight, flushes, the straight flush, and the set, I have to fold. But if he also shoves 2pair and pair plus draws, I have to call; and I have no way of knowing which it is. My guess would be the former. (I think I am confident in that.) And if this is the case, raising may lead to me having to fold when I have a profitable implied odds call on the flop.
However, raising has the advantage of telling me more about his hand by forcing him to play straightforwardly. If he doesnt ship, then he doesnt have monsters. So if I raise super small to $50 and he flats, then I can shove turn betting 240 into a pot of 125. He'd need 40% to call that which he may or may not have depending on which hands we remove from his range after his smooth call on the flop. The beauty of betting small and shoving is that he may not feel committed to the pot and fold marginal hands or he may put me on the nuts, underestimate his equity, and fold some monster hands.
So in conclusion,…
Raising cost $50 and gives me very accurate information on whether or not he has a monster. If so, I dont have the requiste 40% equity to call as long as he is not also capable of 3-bet shoving the flop with his marginal hands into strength on the scariest board ever (I doubt that he is).
Calling costs $25 and let's me see the next card and gives me the same info more cheaply IF he checks the turn on a blank. But if he bombs the turn like he did, then I am forced to make a readless judgement call on whether or not he is capable of thinly value betting with his marginal hands into weakness on a slightly less scary board (I doubt that he is). If he was betting with a marginal hand for protection, I would expect him to bet less than pot in order to control the size of it. Once he bets the turn big, I have a clear fold that I was not thinking clearly enough to make at the time.
So the choice is
A. pay $25 for cloudy information about his hand and a difficult decision to fold if he barrels big. This retains the shot at binking the turn which is valuable assuming he would pay off a bet or two if the flush, straight, or trips came.
B. pay $50 for clear information about his hand and an easy decision to either fold when he shoves or shove turn when he calls. This gives up a shot at binking the turn all the times that he is strong.
So my final answer is I like A the best and B a close second. Calling the turn like I did is probably never correct. As my bankroll gets more stable, I promise to become more aggressive in good spots.
October 21, 2012
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Killingbird said:
i should qualify everything I am posting by saying that I am an MTT donk cash fish…
If my final analysis is correct, you were closer to the right answer than I was. I just think you have to raise flop smaller and fold if he shoves due to the likelihood that some of our straight, trip, and 2pair outs are dirty. We'd need 40% and I dont think we have 10 clean outs vs his get it in range. If he has the J of spades, we dont have it or the 9 of spades as outs.
What a sick hand.
October 21, 2012
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Other new thoughts from lunch
Hand 2: I have 250. I hate calling preflop now. I prefer 3-betting/folding to 40 and c-betting about the same on anything but the wettest of flops. If my cbet is called, I can check back turn and see all 5 cards for about 80. And if somebody donks the flop like they have been, I can just fold flop without wasting the cbet. Postflop as played, I still like my fold.
Hand 4: This is a bad fold. I'd never seen him donk that big with anything so I just read it as strength (why bluff so much into so many players), but in hindsight he probably would have check raised his strongest hands. At best this was a strong draw or bottom 2. Maybe even AT, but I dont think he is doing this with a set or better. This was just fear and frustration. Plain and simple.
January 27, 2013
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Very simple theme to your post, whether you are properly rolled for this game. You have an edge in the game, but you are handcuffed by bankroll fears. Until you get to that point, some might say not to play, but I know you've been winning, so you are adjusting to it well.
Hand #1 – We may have been using a blunt equity tool at lunch, but I do think we figured you had more equity on the flop than you thought in the moment. Looking at it again, I think the river fold deserves props, because I don't know that I have that discipline. Overall, I think this commentor foucault (some small stakes grinder) has it right. Fold the turn when your equity drops and he pots it again. I'm not in that game, but three pot sized bets, without other reads, would give me lots of confidence I made a good fold.
Hand #2 – I callously called your preflop call “stupid” because I was referring to my own play. I've done this alot and been a lot of similar yucky spots. I think AK misses the flop a lot, so what then? I think flatting preflop requires a lot of confidence that you will usually make correct post-flop decisions. As you note in your update, you may have identified a better approach.
Hand #3 – This is that good discipline I mentioned. I think we discussed that you should 3bet this, and foucault explains that well. Also, I think SB misplays the flop, so adding the tiny preflop raise and the 2xPot flop bet, you have some information on this guy for the future.
Hand #4 – In fairness to you, your read in the moment is fine. And we've talked about your need to make big folds in this game give your circumstances. When we discuss it afterwards, we try to evaluate those reads. I think many players would check the flop to the preflop aggressor and then raise. The flop hits Eminem's range better than yours, so he could have it or he could be stealing. But with others still in the pot, if he had the nuts, I think he should have waited for others to put money in, which leads me to think Eminem has something but maybe isn't as strong as you thought.
Hand #5 – You lost less than many folks might have. Losing set over set is part of the game. When you hit your set, you actually want villain to have an A or K (maybe even both), so you can get max value. As played you put in $50 on the turn and $80 on the river. If you instead raise the flop from his $25 to say $80 (I suck at bet sizing) you get the information you need to shut it down for less money overall (assuming he three bets his KK+).
Keep playing and keep learning.
October 21, 2012
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Easy answer in all of these is probably raise and re evaluate. Thats becoming my new “it depends”. People play more staightforwardly vs raises than they do calls. It narrows their ranges and make decisions easier. Gotta be able to do math and fold if necessary when the 3-pop you though.
October 21, 2012
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Hands from this past Tuesday
Hand 1
100bb. I get A2s in middle position vs a few limpers. I limp behind here and play this hand similar to a set mine – if I flop a good draw, I'll play for stacks but I dont want to be pure bluffing with it a loose game or playing it for top pair value.
If you raise here, please tell me your plan.
I was worried that B would raise his button because he is aggro. My plan was to fold away the $2 like a would with a small pair because I wouldnt be able to stack him much due to his range being wide, him being in position, and him knowing my game. BUT when they all called, I figured I'd get in there for the implied odds vs them.
I planned to checked fold flop, but it checked through. I planned to fold turn, but he bet small and they all called giving me odds.
In the end, I bleed almost 20% of my stack. Stuff like this happens a good bit in this game and I have to reload $100 at a time and end up bleeding off a few buy ins. I'm not sure if I should play it more aggressively or just fold pre.
Hand 2
This hand pissed me off. I chopped and lost 2 huge pots while value shoving vs a loose player who binked on me twice and that didnt bother me at all. In this hand I knew the correct way to play it but was not focused and missed my spot due to brain fog. I realized it immediately after the flop and tried 2 stupid bluffs to make it for it compounding the error. Damn, I'm still pissed. At least this frustration will burn the spot into my memory for future reference.
I raised big because the 2 loosest players in the game limped. The button (DG) was talking and not paying attention. He flicked in 15 and then looked up to see who bet. When he noticed it was me (the tightest player in the game) he says “Man, what am I doing” under his breath.
This told me that he knows I am tight and tries to stay out of my way. I figured he had a marginal hand.
I knew that he didnt hit the flop any harder than maybe a flush draw. I didnt cbet because I knew the other 2 would call with anything they limped with and I didnt want to barrel several streets. Plus M58 is prone to limp reraise with draws and such.
When DG throws out that weak bet, I knew he had nothing so i floated to take it away later. This was my mistake. Once he miraculously got those 2 out of the pot for me, I was supposed to check raise him there to about $50. He would fold a ton and if not, I could shove turn with the roughly 20 cards that would give me either a hand or a draw. Instead I flung out 2 pointless bluffs and caused myself a huge chip swing. Even still on the river he says “I know you hit that flush but I guess I have to pay you off.”
At least his comments have promoted him to my bluff list and I will be taking the next 3-4 pots away from him accordingly.
October 21, 2012
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Oh yeah the rap names were fun, but im too lazy to re-type them all out each time my browser crashes. Im just used people's initials for now and will probably be leaving even those as “Player 1” etc some time in the future. As long as the point gets across, it's all good.
October 21, 2012
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From Saturday 12/21/13
A bunch of new players tonight. Yeah I'm over the names. This is just much easier.
Hand 1
Preflop. Normally I would limp the button here or raise to a smaller amount but people tend to limp call with utter trash in this game and I figured preflop is the best time to get value while they are still optimistic about hands like 43o. I am trying to decide if I should play “correctly” which would have me being aggro in position with hands like this or if I should play my naturally nitty game and just limp and try to flop well. Decided this orbit to experiment with some aggression so I made it 10x to try to get them off of small cards.
Flop. Great flop for me. Bigger pairs are not in their ranges so if some one has a baby boat I should be able to scare them a good bit with a bigger turn bet on most over cards.
Turn. This is basically an out for me. I guess AQ is possible, but if he has any pocket pair 22-66 or 88-TT this card has to scare him when I bet big. As tight as I am, I usually have an over pair here, but I can also have QJ+ quite easily.
River. Damn. This bastard is stubborn with his pocket ducks like he's trying to start a dynasty or something. Luckily, I binked on him. Come on man! WTF is this SOB reppin? There are people in this game that could play Axhh like this or 9x or even smaller boats. For this price I guess I have to call.
Hand 2
Preflop. Same guy. I could 3bet but I would have to fold to a raise and I want to keep his weakest hands in although that obviously wouldn't been a problem since the donk son of a bitch called 20 with J7o in the last hand.
Flop. Interesting bet, but I am never folding here.
Turn. Getting scary, but now I have a flush draw and I am chopping with a lot of his value range as well.
River. Probably would have folded to a shove, as I dont think he is capable of bluffing. But I am not sure if I would have because he is playing this hand opposite from how he played the nuts last time. He folded angrily so my guess is KK. Granted, this hand is not that interesting but I wonder if folding to a shove on the river would have been correct here.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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loxxii said:
Easy answer in all of these is probably raise and re evaluate. Thats becoming my new “it depends”. People play more staightforwardly vs raises than they do calls. It narrows their ranges and make decisions easier. Gotta be able to do math and fold if necessary when the 3-pop you though.
It's often not desirable to narrow their ranges. There are quite a lot of instances where you are ahead of their betting range but not their range for continuing to a raise. In these cases, raising is usually a mistake. If they will reliably call worse and only 3-bet better, that's a different story…
October 21, 2012
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That makes sense.
Question. What if a raise narrows their range by truncating it? My goal is to trade them folding some of their air in exchange for them 3-betting some of their monsters. The resulting range would be narrower and more marginal hand heavy, which could make it more susceptible to a turn overshove.
In the first hand where I had the AsTc with the gutshot royal draw on KQTsss, if I click it back I think the guy gets it in with two pair plus and folds his complete air (if he even has any). I would expect calls from pair plus draws and expect them to sometimes fold to a turn overshove.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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loxxii said:
I planned to fold turn, but he bet small and they all called giving me odds.
Ack! No one has shown any interest in this pot at all, and you have the nut flush draw. Bet! Raise! Take the pot!
In the end, I bleed almost 20% of my stack. Stuff like this happens a good bit in this game and I have to reload $100 at a time and end up bleeding off a few buy ins. I'm not sure if I should play it more aggressively or just fold pre.
This is why being a nit isn't necessarily lower variance. Refusing to risk a lot of money means losing small to medium sums of money a lot more frequently.
When DG throws out that weak bet, I knew he had nothing so i floated to take it away later. This was my mistake. Once he miraculously got those 2 out of the pot for me, I was supposed to check raise him there to about $50. He would fold a ton and if not, I could shove turn with the roughly 20 cards that would give me either a hand or a draw. Instead I flung out 2 pointless bluffs and caused myself a huge chip swing. Even still on the river he says “I know you hit that flush but I guess I have to pay you off.”
Why are you trying to bluff him? You say that you don't think he has a pair, and you have the nut no pair, plus redraws. Let him do the bluffing! Call him down! And of course on the river you should be value betting, but I think that was just a typo when you refer to it as a bluff?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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loxxii said:
That makes sense.
Question. What if a raise narrows their range by truncating it? My goal is to trade them folding some of their air in exchange for them 3-betting some of their monsters. The resulting range would be narrower and more marginal hand heavy, which could make it more susceptible to a turn overshove.
In the first hand where I had the AsTc with the gutshot royal draw on KQTsss, if I click it back I think the guy gets it in with two pair plus and folds his complete air (if he even has any). I would expect calls from pair plus draws and expect them to sometimes fold to a turn overshove.
Advanced maneuvers! It's a very good thought. I don't know about doing it on this exact board because you have so much equity against even his shoving range, it sucks to let him blow you off of it. I'd rather do that with something like a gutshot and backdoor flush draw, where you don't mind folding the flop but you also have some chance of turning a lot of equity.
What you're describing, though, is for circumstances where you're turning your hand into a bluff. I was mostly pushing back against the idea of using a raise to “define” a hand you're trying to showdown. I don't like the idea of raising with a potential bluff-catcher just to find out whether he's bluffing, because by the time you know it's too late: either he folds and you don't win anything extra, or he shoves and you lose the size of your bet.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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loxxii said:
Preflop. Normally I would limp the button here or raise to a smaller amount but people tend to limp call with utter trash in this game and I figured preflop is the best time to get value while they are still optimistic about hands like 43o. I am trying to decide if I should play “correctly” which would have me being aggro in position with hands like this or if I should play my naturally nitty game and just limp and try to flop well. Decided this orbit to experiment with some aggression so I made it 10x to try to get them off of small cards.
Good to see you experimenting. If effective stacks are really $600 here, this is a great spot to raise a hand like this even in a loose game, and then be prepared to run a big bluff post-flop as you did. Sounds like you didn't get a great result, but don't let that deter you. This is good, high-level stuff going on here.
With $200 stacks, I'd be a lot less inclined to raise this just because you don't have a lot of room to maneuver postflop. You're raising at least as much because of your position as because of your hand, and if you make the stacks too shallow you won't get to use that position much.
River. Damn. This bastard is stubborn with his pocket ducks like he's trying to start a dynasty or something. Luckily, I binked on him. Come on man! WTF is this SOB reppin? There are people in this game that could play Axhh like this or 9x or even smaller boats. For this price I guess I have to call.
I'm in no position to tell you you're wrong about this, but are you sure? People chasing a flush draw when the tightest player in the game is barreling them with trips on the board? Or calling the turn with 9x? Obviously you're getting a good price here and it's not an easy hand to fold, but there are definitely people I'd lay it down to. The check-call, check-call, take the lead on the river (for an amount he can't expect you to fold to, really) is suspicious.
Hand 2
Preflop. Same guy. I could 3bet but I would have to fold to a raise and I want to keep his weakest hands in although that obviously wouldn't been a problem since the donk son of a bitch called 20 with J7o in the last hand.
By “donk son of a bitch” you mean guy paying your bills with his bad calls, right? Don't waste time forming opinions about how your opponents play, just focus on how best to exploit it and let them do whatever they want.
I'd consider folding pre. What he'll raise and what he'll call are not the same thing. There are tons of loose-passives who will limp-call any two but when they open huge in early position it's time for AQ to hit the muck.
River. Probably would have folded to a shove, as I dont think he is capable of bluffing. But I am not sure if I would have because he is playing this hand opposite from how he played the nuts last time. He folded angrily so my guess is KK. Granted, this hand is not that interesting but I wonder if folding to a shove on the river would have been correct here.
October 21, 2012
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OMG so much good stuff in here. Feels like Christmas.
Ack! No one has shown any interest in this pot at all, and you have the nut flush draw. Bet! Raise! Take the pot!
If I bet this turn, I 100% will get called by someone with at least 2nd or 3rd pair plus draw which I have about 24% equity against. I could do that and then possibly overbet rivers that dont improve their ranges. There is a small chance this gets them to fold. I'm working on being more aggressive. January will be all about getting cray cray.
Why are you trying to bluff him? You say that you don't think he has a pair, and you have the nut no pair, plus redraws. Let him do the bluffing! Call him down! And of course on the river you should be value betting, but I think that was just a typo when you refer to it as a bluff?
See this is why I refer to your posts as “Common Sense for Dummies.” I completely overlooked the fact that I am crushing his range on the flop. I had to laugh at myself on that one.
Advanced maneuvers! It's a very good thought. I don't know about doing it on this exact board because you have so much equity against even his shoving range, it sucks to let him blow you off of it. I'd rather do that with something like a gutshot and backdoor flush draw, where you don't mind folding the flop but you also have some chance of turning a lot of equity.
What you're describing, though, is for circumstances where you're turning your hand into a bluff. I was mostly pushing back against the idea of using a raise to “define” a hand you're trying to showdown. I don't like the idea of raising with a potential bluff-catcher just to find out whether he's bluffing, because by the time you know it's too late: either he folds and you don't win anything extra, or he shoves and you lose the size of your bet.
If he only shoves two pair or better, then I dont have equity to call even though my hand is oh so sexy. I could force the issue by raising to an amount that would price me in, but this seems bad because I know I have very little FE. I can see a fold on the flop being correct. I hope I would be disciplined enough to do it.
Agreed on your statement about defining bluff catchers. In this hand, he has no bluffs to catch. And as good as my hand looks, all I have right now is 3rd pair. It's not worth showing down as is. Might as well turn it into a bluff since I have a ton of redraws (aka a premium bluffing hand, not a made hand waiting to happen). This must be how PLO players feel in every other pot. I cant even imagine.
I'm in no position to tell you you're wrong about this, but are you sure? People chasing a flush draw when the tightest player in the game is barreling them with trips on the board? Or calling the turn with 9x? Obviously you're getting a good price here and it's not an easy hand to fold, but there are definitely people I'd lay it down to. The check-call, check-call, take the lead on the river (for an amount he can't expect you to fold to, really) is suspicious.
No you're right. Maybe Axhh but that's it. 9x is definitely not calling turn. I think I can put all the Axhh and about half the remaining 75-7A suited and offsuit in his range. I didnt know him at the time of the hand. I made the mistake of thinking he might be sane. Maybe it's a fold. I tanked and turned to take a sip of Diet Coke before calling at least.
By “donk son of a bitch” you mean guy paying your bills with his bad calls, right? Don't waste time forming opinions about how your opponents play, just focus on how best to exploit it and let them do whatever they want.
I'd consider folding pre. What he'll raise and what he'll call are not the same thing. There are tons of loose-passives who will limp-call any two but when they open huge in early position it's time for AQ to hit the muck.
Right. I was going for comedy there but I over did it with the cussing. I was tilted in game, but I wasn't mad at him. $15 is basically a min raise in this game and to them, position is something you do with your wife after the game. I have to think of the game as a 2/5 just to wrap my head around the absurd sizing. This is a call for sure.
Good to consider, but I wouldn't fold. I think the huge flop bet either represents a hand that wants you to fold (KK, feeling entitled to the pot) or someone who thinks he's vulnerable (top pair, probably with a good kicker). I can't see him playing any Q this way: not QQ, not AQ, not KQ. You'll just chop or maybe even win to some desperation bluff too often here.Sounds like you shoved the turn when checked to? Doesn't show that in the replayer, but I think that's wise.Nice hands! I can tell from your analysis you are really coming along in terms of what you're considering at the table.
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December 6, 2012
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loxxii said:
OMG so much good stuff in here. Feels like Christmas.
Ack! No one has shown any interest in this pot at all, and you have the nut flush draw. Bet! Raise! Take the pot!
If I bet this turn, I 100% will get called by someone with at least 2nd or 3rd pair plus draw which I have about 24% equity against. I could do that and then possibly overbet rivers that dont improve their ranges. There is a small chance this gets them to fold. I'm working on being more aggressive. January will be all about getting cray cray.
Yeah, I would either bet and then shove about half the deck on the river (doesn't seem like it would be an overbet at that point), or just overbet jam the turn. If you're so sure they're going to call any turn bet, I trust you are just overbet jamming if you have the nuts here?
Advanced maneuvers! It's a very good thought. I don't know about doing it on this exact board because you have so much equity against even his shoving range, it sucks to let him blow you off of it. I'd rather do that with something like a gutshot and backdoor flush draw, where you don't mind folding the flop but you also have some chance of turning a lot of equity.
What you're describing, though, is for circumstances where you're turning your hand into a bluff. I was mostly pushing back against the idea of using a raise to “define” a hand you're trying to showdown. I don't like the idea of raising with a potential bluff-catcher just to find out whether he's bluffing, because by the time you know it's too late: either he folds and you don't win anything extra, or he shoves and you lose the size of your bet.
If he only shoves two pair or better, then I dont have equity to call even though my hand is oh so sexy. I could force the issue by raising to an amount that would price me in, but this seems bad because I know I have very little FE. I can see a fold on the flop being correct. I hope I would be disciplined enough to do it.
Agreed on your statement about defining bluff catchers. In this hand, he has no bluffs to catch. And as good as my hand looks, all I have right now is 3rd pair. It's not worth showing down as is. Might as well turn it into a bluff since I have a ton of redraws (aka a premium bluffing hand, not a made hand waiting to happen). This must be how PLO players feel in every other pot. I cant even imagine.
You have a lot of equity in the pot, but not enough to call. That's why raising and then folding sucks with a draw this good. I like just calling precisely because there's a substantial risk of getting blown off your equity if you raise.
$15 is basically a min raise in this game and to them, position is something you do with your wife after the game. I have to think of the game as a 2/5 just to wrap my head around the absurd sizing. This is a call for sure.
Got a good smile out of your first line here. I still wouldn't be so quick to write off the raise, though. We know this guy has a limp-calling range, and I feel safe saying his raising range is stronger than his limp-calling range. It's up to you to say how much stronger, but I'd encourage you not to throw your hands into the air and say “Oh who can tell with these guys they play anything!” Weaker players, even the ones who play anything, don't always play everything the same way. In fact they are less good about concealing their hands than better players, and many do certain things to telegraph when they have premium hands, either because they think they are supposed to or they don't want to get drawn out on or whatever.
Good to consider, but I wouldn't fold. I think the huge flop bet either represents a hand that wants you to fold (KK, feeling entitled to the pot) or someone who thinks he's vulnerable (top pair, probably with a good kicker). I can't see him playing any Q this way: not QQ, not AQ, not KQ. You'll just chop or maybe even win to some desperation bluff too often here.Sounds like you shoved the turn when checked to? Doesn't show that in the replayer, but I think that's wise.Nice hands! I can tell from your analysis you are really coming along in terms of what you're considering at the table.He bet turn big and I called because I picked up a flush draw. The river went check check and I won. Ah yes, the old shove turn to get him off of a chop trick. I see it now but in game, I was still wounded honestly was just trying to get to showdown. I had to have been off my game because I know better. I should have shoved river in hindsight.
This was awesome. Thanks Andrew.
October 21, 2012
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If you're so sure they're going to call any turn bet, I trust you are just overbet jamming if you have the nuts here?
Yes, I overbet for value a lot in this game. It feels weird but I get called by worse a lot so I'll keep doing it. I'm kind of afraid to mix in overbets with draws on the turn though. Maybe if I had a gutshot or two overs with it. I feel much better about doing it on flops.
I'd rather do that with something like a gutshot and backdoor flush draw
This was precisely my thinking in the hand where I had AKs but forgot I was ahead. Would have been a much better move with T9s instead.
You have a lot of equity in the pot, but not enough to call [a shove]. That's why raising and then folding sucks with a draw this good. I like just calling[the bet] precisely because there's a substantial risk of getting blown off your equity if you raise.
This was my thinking in game, and I knew I was supposed to fold the turn but I got sticky. Urgh! Might be wishful thinking to hope he never shoves me off of my hand with a draw. Maybe the call flop fold turn line is better with this hand unless I am sure I have that much control over him (which I'm not since this is our first hand together).
That guy with the KK could have a tight raising range as you say. Maybe his HUD would run a 60/10. Wouldnt be surprised. But afterwards, that AQ hand made him lose his shit. He went on straight monkey tilt and played very crazy after that. I did observe him raise J9o, which isnt crazy, but it justifies the AJs call, unless he's only raising it due to tilt which could be the case.
Love the piece about using chop overbets to help balance my value overbet range.
One last thing, if you didn't like how I played Axdd in this hand you definitely wont like the way B played his hand. He had Axcc. (Yeah I'm snitching on you because you snitched on me to Nate about eating the steak. Pay backs a what? That's right you guessed it…a B.)
http://www.pelopoker.com/show_replayer.php?id=1504378764&hostid=1000
January 27, 2013
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August 4, 2013
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great stuff, i'll be checking this post regularly. hopefully there will be more hands to discuss
October 21, 2012
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tazzjazz said:
great stuff, i'll be checking this post regularly. hopefully there will be more hands to discuss
awesome. i might get some in Biloxi tonight
October 21, 2012
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1/11/14
Hand 1
The guy that bet 10 is a pretty good player who could be taking a stab or betting any pair or draw. The guy that raises is also ok and knows that the other guy could have a lot here, so I figured he could do this with a T, strong draw, but not a pair under the T. I've seen him limp Q2s, J9o, and A9s in EP. I've seen him play draws aggressively.
I have folded 90% of hands so my image is tight. Figured I look like a boat or T at worse when I shove here. He sigh calls and instantly asks me if I have a boat before the river comes out. I say no and we run it. In hindsight, I assume he would have asked to run it more than once if I had said yes. Should I ignore that question in the future?
Hand 2
Villain in this hand looks around at how many callers there were after my raise and kind of flicks in a pot odds sigh call so I know he is not strong. He is a decent player who knows that I am tight and is starting to adjust to me. I figured he may be good enough to float this board and try and take it away from my big ace and broadway hands if I make a standard c-bet then shut it down. When the river card hit and I call, he says “I think I probably needed that card.”
RESULTS
I think I leveled myself in both of these hands by giving my opponents too much credit and assuming I have FE in hand 1 or that he would ever try to bluff me after I raise in hand 2.
I think hand 1 should be raised pre even though no one would fold and I would have to bluff with my whole stack on 3 streets to possibly steal it post. Wouldnt have mattered since he had KT, but it's probably the right play. Hand 2, I think I should have check folded the river. I think I have to call the turn since I am already folding overs there a lot. He had 78o.
Ended up down $220 on the night. I left a little early since my roll took a hit in Biloxi and I gotta get a radiator in my truck. Might have to focus more on 25nl online and find some temporary work until I can rebuild.
December 24, 2013
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i wish you luck with your roll carlos. this thread is a gold mine. i'm flying into atlantic city this weekend to see one of my favorite band's final shows in brooklyn, and i'm able to bring a buy-in with me (getting paid once a month makes for strange cash flow situations right now). very stoked. not gonna play scared just because i have one shot this time. please keep posting hands. i find i think of way too many things at once (like a floodgate being opened) and i have trouble sometimes figuring out what parts to ignore and listen to (in life and poker). so when someone discusses hh's they've played, it almost forces me to form complete thoughts instead of gut reactions based in math/experience. those complete thoughts are obviously going to fare better than autopiloting, so yah. definitely loving this thread.
October 21, 2012
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Thanks guys. Glad you like the thread. Since I am not doing the goals thread any more, I am glad to have a place to spew my thoughts as I learn to swim with the other fishes in cash games. Probably do this until 2015 then learn PLO or something.
December 24, 2013
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word ill check this thread more often. have you given thought to the wsopc in west palm in february? round trip bus tickets from your area to west palm is about $133, which is close to what i’ll be spending to get there from tallahassee. i know a few people in that area, so i might be able to score cheap/free lodging. i admire your balling on a budget (the antiballer, if you were lol) attitude when you play live, so i’d love to hear some tips if you got em for saving money. i can afford to go, but it’s really silly/recreational of me to go in with a cost of like 850 on a 580 tournament. because of this, i’m gonna try to go with enough time/money to play two nightly 135’s and the 580 1 milly gtd. very excited because live florida games are lolfishyfun, but moreso want to meet some fellow tpe members
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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I could actually see folding the turn in Hand 1. I know it feels weird to flop trips and fold without putting any money into the pot, but even if you’re ahead of Villain’s range for raising, I doubt you’re ahead of his stacking off range. By shoving you guarantee that when that last $150 goes into the pot it goes in bad, and that means you’re basically bluffing (albeit with a very significant blocker) and need a lot of fold equity to show a profit.
If you really think you’re ahead of his raising range, you can cold call and fold to further action, but I’d caution against using that as a compromise. Even before seeing the results I got a bad feeling about that big turn raise and I wouldn’t be surprised if folding then and there is correct.
Maybe I’m way off about Villain’s stack-off range, so if you think I am, please post here what you thought his raising range and his calling range were.
I definitely wouldn’t raise pre-flop, don’t see what that would accomplish at all.
I wouldn’t ignore the “run it twice” question – this is a friendly home game, after all – and I wouldn’t be afraid to speak up if you actively want to run it twice, which you probably should.
Agree with your analysis of Hand 2, and your reasoning for check-call turn, check-call river is very sophisticate and spot-on.
October 21, 2012
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In hand 1, I tried to make myself believe that he could raise-call a straight flush draw there and maybe even Ah6h (all of which are in his utg limp behind range), but it was just a level because I didnt wanna fold trips even though I knew it was the right play. I have to starting taking more time in spots where I have the faux nuts.
In hand 2, you think the river is a call? He is repping very thin but that sizing doesn’t look like a bluff and worse pairs than mine are probably checking back.
As far as running it twice, I am baffled by the whole idea of it. He never brought it up. He just asked if I had a boat. Had I said yes, I am sure he would have asked to run it 3 times. Since I said no I dont have a boat, he didnt ask. Had our holdings been reversed, I wouldnt have wanted to run it more than once but would have in the spirit of the game IF asked. In this case, I didnt ask so he didnt offer. Where can I learn more about how to do this properly?
April 16, 2013
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In Hand 2 I think c-c turn, c-f river is the best line. You rarely have a 7 but once you call the turn, TT is probably close to the bottom of your range. I doubt you cbet AK out of position into 4 people so your range looks like big pairs. I doubt he thinks he can get you to fold most of that range or value bets worse than JJ here so I would fold the river. To avoid getting exploited to these bets you could fold <QQ and call with KK+? Although they are all essentially way ahead/way behind in this spot but at least that means your not folding 100% of your turn range
In hand 1 it feels so exploitable to fold trips there but you will have better 10x in that spot (AT, KT, QT) that you can call with and get called by worse but I doubt hes getting it in with a worst 10 than T8. It feels super nitty but I would just fold there. Saying that, I play so many hands an hour that I can imagine it really sucks having to wait all night for trips then fold without putting any money in.
Also I play a ton of 25nl on pokerstars, you should post some of your online hands and I'd be glad to give my 2 cents on those, for what thats worth!
October 21, 2012
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Foucault said:
I could actually see folding the turn in Hand 1. I know it feels weird to flop trips and fold without putting any money into the pot, but even if you're ahead of Villain's range for raising, I doubt you're ahead of his stacking off range. By shoving you guarantee that when that last $150 goes into the pot it goes in bad, and that means you're basically bluffing (albeit with a very significant blocker) and need a lot of fold equity to show a profit.
If you really think you're ahead of his raising range, you can cold call and fold to further action, but I'd caution against using that as a compromise. Even before seeing the results I got a bad feeling about that big turn raise and I wouldn't be surprised if folding then and there is correct.
Maybe I'm way off about Villain's stack-off range, so if you think I am, please post here what you thought his raising range and his calling range were.
I definitely wouldn't raise pre-flop, don't see what that would accomplish at all.
I wouldn't ignore the “run it twice” question – this is a friendly home game, after all – and I wouldn't be afraid to speak up if you actively want to run it twice, which you probably should.
Agree with your analysis of Hand 2, and your reasoning for check-call turn, check-FOLD river is very sophisticate and spot-on.
Andrew wasn't able to correct this due to a tech issue so I am correcting it for him.
October 21, 2012
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This was a 25nl game. These were not regs.
I check the flop because I dont have a good value target once it checks around and BTN makes that weak bet.
Once MP calls behind, I put him on either a marginal hand like maybe AK with a diamond or a medium pair OR a weak straight or flush draw. I put BTN on something similar.
The turn card is perfect as it gives me the nuts and improves a lot of that range to monsters. I check to maybe get bluffs to put in some money because if they have a flush or boat, all the money's going in regardless. If they have worse, then not much is going in regardless.
When the turn checks through, I figured they probably had nothing but threw out a prayer in case they maybe had a slow played monster or some marginal hand they were pot controlling with.
I'm not sure what I could have done differently here. What a waste.
October 21, 2012
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25nl. BTN's running 24/21 and I'd seen him flat the button with suited cards before.
His flop squeeze eliminates marginal hands like Ax from his range. He's got a monster or a draw. He doesnt have AA or QQ and probably not even AQ. The raiser opens wide and I flat wide which makes this a good squeeze spot for AQ. He's repping 77 or A7s only. Even if I give him some combos of AQ, there are more combos of hearts especially since I have a blocker.
I'm flipping with pairs plus hearts and ahead of naked heart draws. Given the overlay, I think getting it in here is fine. Looking back, I think calling and then betting non-heart turns would be even better since I have very little FE if any (FEFNE, ha! I like the way that sounds).
April 6, 2013
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I like folding to the flop raise in all honesty. I think you are going to be getting pretty crushed here his range vs your hand. Do you really 3b AQ here? What is UTG playing s.t. you would 3b AQ?
Ranges to stack off should narrow as there are more players in the hand who see the particular street that you are thinking of stacking off on. So for first UTG to c-bet a 4-way flop that is pretty strong and you call and BTN doesn't mind — that looks pretty strong. As your post is kind of getting at, you are crushed by any value hand of his. So even if his range doesn't include AQ (fair, its diluted at the least), you are still saying his value range has you drawing dead or to 3 Ts.
In fairness, your flop call isn't even that clear in this situation. When I play this spot that is something I often think about… my flop call was marginal indicating I am near the bottom of my range, therefore when additional action ensues I need a strong reason to presume a draw heavy range against which to continue. Because BTN's VPIP/PFR gap is small here I would not be surprised if 77 constituted a surprsiingly large slice of their flop raising range because the range with which they initially flat is going to be more narrow and defined as hands that don't make sense to squeeze or fold.
So you might be saying, well how can I call pre (and be right to do so) to think about folding to the flop continuation bet (since I am saying calling flop is so marginal). The idea being you didnt call to flop an ace and fold to one bet. Well the thing is the times you see a flop four-way are extremely rare in the grand scheme of things. Of all the times you click “call” here how often does the pot go headsup? get three-bet? go three-way? The HU and 3-way spots are totally different scenarios.
It is good that you are analyzing the cappedness of certain players ranges, namely the button here. That is important. But cappedness and strength of range are somewhat distinct. Someone can have an uncapped but weak range and someone can have a capped strong range. The button's raising range in this spot, imo, is an excellent example of the latter.
Here is an example of the former. I open MP to 2x in a tourney in ante stage pre ITM. CO calls, BTN calls, BB calls. All 4 villains have 40bb as I do. Flop is 678r. BB's range is uncapped here, they can have all the strong hands. They can have more combinations of the strongest hands, ie all 16 combos of T9, 4 combos of 95s, and 16 of 45, at the least, assuming they don't flat 95o (they might given the price!) But what about their range overall? Well despite that uncappedness, its still pretty weak, lots of gutters and weak 1 pairs, air, etc. I mean they should flat K3s. Meanwhile neither I, CO, or BTN can have 45o, 95s, and probably not much T9o.
So let's look back at this hand. It is the reverse. Sure BTN can't have AA/QQ and probably not AQ. But what can they have? They aren't raising flop here with A9 or AJ. They have to have something. And they are raising into strength against an UTG range that isn't capped, and that isn't weak either.
I think if we were to actually solve this spot you would be going with 77 against a GTO opponent. Making more realistic assumptions you should be flatting some AQ (if not all) and going with AQ+77 against BTN in terms of made hands. Its also worth noting that KhXh is a better hand than your hand in this spot, so if you construct a stacking range its going to come in ahead of ATss and your going to be stacking off decently often even if you fold this hand.
edit: I see that you didn't say whether you would 3b AQ or not. Sorry got mixed up. Don't 3b AQ here w/out rly good reason and willing to stack v UTG.
October 21, 2012
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Wow, thanks for the detailed response.
1. In order to fold the flop in spite of the overlay, we have to assume his value range for raising is overwhelmingly stronger than his bluffing range right. I agree that a GTO opponent or a nit would have us crushed here. This guy could show up with hands as weak as 9h8h here. I mentioned that I saw him flat hands like this but failed to mention how he played them postflop. That's my fault. I saw him play QTs in a similar spot with no pair and no draw besides the flush draw. I agree that a fold here is correct given most ranges. Is his wider bluffing range even enough to change that and is the amount of overlay a relevant factor?
2. I wouldn't 3bet AQ in my spot, but I would squeeze with it from the BTN vs this raiser who had been raising wide and flatting 3bets with hands worse than AQ. Plus my range for flatting him in the CO here is pretty pair and suited connector heavy as well.
3. I agree that my initial flop call is marginal and agree that we need a good reason to continue to further action because of it. I would have folded to a second barrel from UTG because of this. It's weird, but my flop call was like a float vs him. BTN's raise eliminated marginal hands that beat me from his range and his past play indicated he plays draws aggressively. This felt like reason enough to continue vs him, but I could be wrong.
4. I love your point about folding in this rare 4 way pot and being more likely to call in a more common 3 way pot.
5. I think the key to this hand is UTG's opening and c-betting range. If we believe it is GTO, then this is a clear fold. I believed he was opening and c-betting too much. If BTN believed the same and was capable of playing back, then my play makes since. But that's a lot of ifs. I could be wrong on some of them.
6. I think I disagree that his hand is better than mine in this spot. It's 50/50 in PokerStove and having some overlay helps too. If instead you are saying his range is better than mine in this spot, then I agree if that QTs hand I saw earlier was an abberation and he's not always that wide as a rule.
Overall what I think I hear you saying is that you would fold this and maybe call with a hand that has some outs to his value range and that maybe I am making too many reads and would be better off playing closer to GTO.
April 6, 2013
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6. I think I disagree that his hand is better than mine in this spot. It's 50/50 in PokerStove and having some overlay helps too. If instead you are saying his range is better than mine in this spot, then I agree if that QTs hand I saw earlier was an abberation and he's not always that wide as a rule.
I was saying KhXh would be better for you, not him, in this spot. His hand is better than yours though, no doubt about that. His hand is always live. Yours is not. Think about how his hand plays versus different portions of your and UTG's stack off range.
Currently zooming/SM'ing ill post again later
October 21, 2012
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Got it. I'd be better off in this spot with KhQh than AsTs.
Agreed.
April 6, 2013
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This guy could show up with hands as weak as 9h8h here. I mentioned that I saw him flat hands like this but failed to mention how he played them postflop. That's my fault. I saw him play QTs in a similar spot with no pair and no draw besides the flush draw. I agree that a fold here is correct given most ranges. Is his wider bluffing range even enough to change that and is the amount of overlay a relevant factor?
I don't see how 98hh is that weak a hand here. KThh QThh JThh are all obviously stronger. But with the 7h on board he would need to be flatting with 86hh, weak 1 gappers for us to get over 5-6 flush draw combinations that don't pair the Q: KThh, QThh, JThh, T9hh, 98hh, 56hh. Throw in J9hh, Q9hh, perhaps we can get up to 10 combinations.
Running some numbers in Flopzilla, ATss equity against the following range:
AQs (2), A7s (2s), 77 (3), KQhh, QJhh, KThh, JThh, QThh, KJhh, T9hh, J9hh, T8hh, 98hh, 76hh is 39.2%.
So that is pretty conservative in favour of stacking off in my opinion because it doesn't include 5 potential AQo combinations, but does include T8hh, which I would expect a villain with this narrow a VPIP/PFR gap to fold before the flop. In other words, this is the best case equity scenario.
Overall what I think I hear you saying is that you would fold this and maybe call with a hand that has some outs to his value range and that maybe I am making too many reads and would be better off playing closer to GTO.
I don't know if I agree with either “too many reads” or “better off playing closer to GTO.” My speculation re: what we should do against GTO was just that, speculation. I don't know what is GTO. It isn't terribly important to 25nl.
Calculating your equity against a range (as per above) is important. Acting exploitably based on playing equity better than your opponents, and exploitably based on gameplanning better than your opponents (taking away their equity when they don't know that's what you are doing, surrendering a bit of equity when not getting the right price even though it seems like you might, could, maybe be), is the key to crushing 25nl. I've done it. For a long time, over a lot of hands. The only thing I ever explicitly hashed out in super detail was what hands I should stack off with preflop for 100 big blinds given assumptions about people's own stack-off ranges.
Everything else was improving my sense of equity, my sense (and experience) of what people's ranges actually were in certain spots, and gameplanning accordingly (last one easier said than done). Improving soft-skills like tilt control, endurance, attention, etc, also important, goes without saying.
I think this ATss hand is a really good example of a hand that can improve your play at 25nl a lot. Because none of your opponents even think about this spot or the concepts we need to flesh out to break it down.
October 21, 2012
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What I meant about 98s was that I didnt think he had to have a pair or a gutshot or something extra like that to go with his flush draw in this spot. I expected to be behind his range but thought the play was fine with the overlay and any FE I may have.
I flat almost all the suited connectors and 1 gappers, and occassionally, even some of the better 2 gappers on the button in this situation. I must be way too wide here. If he is not, then my read and estimate of the equity vs. his range was off.
I need to work with PokerStove a ton so that I'll know the equities better in game.
April 6, 2013
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I would flat Q9s in his spot on the button and 79s probably as well. Especially with you being the cold caller 
.
But he just doesn't look like the cold-calling type.
October 21, 2012
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Stacks $250 in a 1/3 game.
I open for $10 UTG with AKs and get 4 callers. The BB makes it $40.
He is an older guy who I have some history with. The first time I played with him, I gave him the tight old man label and he used it to bluff me a lot.
1. Down to the last 3 in a tourney. I limped 100% in the SB to stab and take it away from him post and I think he raised 100%.
2. He cold 4bet my 3bet iso attempt vs a weak player once in another tourney and got me to fold AQs. He had 99.
3. I saw him limp and then shove over a raise with K2s.
4. I saw him empty the clip on an A high board with 52s which he limped in from MP in a multiway pot. He had no draw.
How would you respond to this bet vs. live 1-2 players who are
1. looser than average 2. average 3. tighter than average
October 21, 2012
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I have a backer for live play and I have lost big 2 nights in a row at a game I never lost at on my own money. I was playing very tight back then and just getting paid off on premiums for a decent profit. Having a bigger roll made me feel able to open up and play looser. So far, this has not gone well. The first night, I mainly just got coolered AKs to KK. This time, I made a bunch of mistakes trying to start bluffing more. Here's how the night went.
Ok, these are the hands I lost and noted. I made some mistakes and I will not play a bunch of these speculative hands again until I get even. I am trying to create profitable spots when it is much easier to just play premiums and wait for them to give me the money. I'll get creative in small MTTs and cash games online. Experimenting in 1-2 sucks when I know it is impossible to lose if I just play tight. Anyway here are the hands.
Hands I lost on 2/5/14
The main villain in these hands is a dude named Frank. In the past, he has been very loose and willing to gamble.
I buy in for 200 and run it up to 300.
Hand 1.
Stack 300. I raise JcJh to 10.
BB (Frank) calls.
Flop Tc9c5d. I bet 20 and he calls.
Turn 4d. I bet 40 and he shoves for 60 more with 5c4c.
I reload for 100.
Hand 2.
Stack 350. I raise a couple limpers to 20 from the CO with Qc9c.
Frank calls in SB.
Flop Kh9dxd. I bet 30 and he calls.
Turn 5d. I bet 40 and he calls.
River Kc. He leads 100 and I call. He has AdTd.
I reload for 200.
I call here because I've known him to bluff in the past and he'd just check raised me on the turn a few hands earlier. It felt like he knew I was isolating limpers light in position and was just floating me on the flop and turn in order to take it away on the river. I think I have to fold this river in hindsight or maybe I should just limp the hand preflop.
Hand 3.
Short stack shoves for 30. Frank calls. I shove like 200 into 65 with AJo. Frank folds and I lose to 88.
Hand 4.
Stack 150. I raise to 10 with KsJc from EP .
Get called by BTN (Randy) and SB (Frank).
Flop Qc8c7s. Checks through.
Turn 3c. Checks through.
River 5c. I bet 35 and Randy calls me with Kc9s.
I won a few pots playing wider than normal in position.
1. Flopped trips in a limped pot with A3o and won a bet.
2. Bluffed T8s from BTN when the K turned on a small flop.
3. Turned set of 5s in a limped pot and won a bet.
4. Flopped two pair with A5o in a limped and won 3 bets.
5. Open 62s from BTN, got 2 calls, and took it down on the flop.
Then I started losing again.
Twice isolated limpers to 20-25 from the blinds with AKo, got several callers, and whiffed flops on bad c-betting boards.
Hand 5.
Stack 150. Opened Th7h 10 from CO.
Got called by SB (Randy) and BB (Frank)
Flop JhTdxs. Checks through.
Turn 5h. I bet 20. Both call.
River 5d. I check and fold when Randy bets and gets called by Frank. They both have bad 5x hands.
Hand 6.
Stack 150. I open QQ 10 from MP.
Only HJ calls.
Flop KhJhJd. I check he bets 25 with like 35 behind.
I tank and he showed a Ks so that I would fold me draw. I fold.
Hand 7.
Stack 200. I open Ts9s to 10 from BTN.
BB (Frank) calls.
Flop Js4h4d. I bet 15 and he calls.
Turn Qc. I bet 30 and he calls.
River blank. He leads and I fold. He shows JJ.
When playing tight, I would not raise with hands 2,4,5 or raise the AKo hands or a bunch of the smaller hands I won. I feel much better playing more passive and tight preflop in a game that pays off a ton postflop when I am on someone else's money. I'd prefer to save the experimenting and laggy stuff in tougher, but cheaper games when I am playing online on my own dimes. Losing other people's money sucks way worse than losing my own.
April 6, 2013
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loxxii said:
Stacks $250 in a 1/3 game.
I open for $10 UTG with AKs and get 4 callers. The BB makes it $40.
He is an older guy who I have some history with. The first time I played with him, I gave him the tight old man label and he used it to bluff me a lot.
1. Down to the last 3 in a tourney. I limped 100% in the SB to stab and take it away from him post and I think he raised 100%.
2. He cold 4bet my 3bet iso attempt vs a weak player once in another tourney and got me to fold AQs. He had 99.
3. I saw him limp and then shove over a raise with K2s.
4. I saw him empty the clip on an A high board with 52s which he limped in from MP in a multiway pot. He had no draw.
How would you respond to this bet vs. live 1-2 players who are
1. looser than average 2. average 3. tighter than average
This is one of the more interesting situations that can come up in different variations in live low stakes cash. I am going to assume 9 handed table. But 8-10 makes a little difference and 7- makes a difference, at least with a player like this.
So for 1. I would 4b to 90$ and call a shove pretty often, flatting sometimes as a function of how loose preflop, how often are they going to flat AJs and AQo v the 4b oop (some villains this will be 100% of the time). 2. I would always flat. 3. I would always flat.
Um in your particular spot, this seems like a situation where villain could both shove AQ and 99+ which makes four-bet/calling pretty tempting because he could also like 5% of his light 3bets, shove or call with A7 etc. Even if it happens infrequently, those times add up in a hurry.
At the same time, you have position and a suited hand that will always flop at least the nut no pair. This means we will be able to almost always call a flop bet if we so choose. It doesn't sound like villain is particularly cognizant of board texture in terms of when he wants to empty the clip, its probably more of a session-narrative thing to him, or emotional peak/turmoil thing. I think we can just flat and get stubborn postflop. If you flop like T42ssh I would always call a flop c-bet of a reasonable size.
August 4, 2013
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hmmm, seems like you might have gotten away from the flush in hand number 2 but against an active player not easy to give him credit for the nuts.
i'm not a cash game player so this is all speculation but i'm not totally convinced you are going about it the optimal way to build a bankroll. i know online games are tougher (as you expressed) as even the low limits can have some tough play but in terms of reducing variance i would think 4 or 5 tabling $.50/$1 or $1/$2 would give you the best chance of winning consistently. i dunno.
October 21, 2012
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I definitely would have folded to a turn check raise there. The lead out just felt fishy to me coming from this player.
December 24, 2013
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about to run out the door but against someone that's old and probably likes to use his image to bluff more and stab more, i'm 4b/calling in the 1/3 game with AKs. you said he had KK which blows but i don't think you have other options no matter who your opponent is really because it's shallow and live preflop gets so much bigger so easily. like you can't flat because youll be oop in a 4 way pot with 60bb behind and a pot of basically that if the rest call. just the fact you saw him barrel 3 streets with 52 or whatever makes me want to get it in and be fine with whatever happens. but of course he's calling tighter than he's shoving. it's annoying, but idk carlos, if he never ever ever ever 3bets cash games maybe fold but only because his raise essentially means all in for you.
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