April 8, 2013
So i just played this hand a little while ago at borgata and wasnt sure of my play. Main villain in this hand is a quiet 40 something year old who has played somewhat tricky/bad. In the past, he has check called flop and turn with flush draw and then lead river on paired board when flush hit. He is only about $450 deep. Other villain in this hand is older middle eastern guy who generally just plays loose passive and sits with about $700. I cover both.
I am utg with KK and make it 20 and get 4 calls. Flop is 1076dd and I lead for $40 with the Kd. Villain2 flats and villain 1 raises to $140. I think I make a pretty big mistake here by flatting. I think against villain 1 i should be min raise gii. I think its incredibly easy for him to have a flush draw or some sort of combo draw. Villain 2 is probably fairly weak and will show up with alot of 1 pair hands or pair plus gutshot.
I flat as does villain 2 and turn is Ad. Goes check check and villain 1 shoves for $280. I feel like this is both a good and bad card but its tough to call given villain 2 behind me. Even though I think he is weak and will likely be folding I am often well behind villain 1. I fold and villain 2 snap folds.
Thoughts?
March 8, 2013
What makes you say villain 1 is tricky? The play you describe sounds like the least tricky line possible, and was probably what 90% of players were doing 10 years ago, and many still do now.
Then after the only note you make is about him playing a flush draw passively, you assume that he is playing a flush draw when he raises the flop? I would say a combo draw is reasonably likely, but a plain flush draw is probably less likely given your previous information. Especially with villain 2 in the hand, he is getting odds to just call.
I'm also confused why you say the turn card is good and bad. It really looks bad and bad to me. Either villain could have a flush draw which hits. Villain 1 could have AT, A9, A8, A7, or A6, Villain 2 could have AT. Did you have the king of diamonds? This seems like absolutely essential information.
The only hand I see you ahead of in Villain 2s range before the turn action are pair plus draws like T9, 87, 99, etc, as well as overpairs JJ and QQ. I doubt he's shoving very many of these hands, whereas he is probably shoving flushes, sets, and straights.
On the other hand, he's shoving 280 into 500 so you only need about 26% assuming villain 2 folds. If you don't have th kind of dimaonds, you have at most 2 outs when behind, so you need to think he is bluffing frequently (especially since he has 9 outs with a single diamond or pair plus straight draw). If you have the king of diamonds, then you have 7 outs against a flush, 8 or 9 outs against a straight, and 10 outs against a set. It also means that if he is bluffing with a hand like QxQd, he only have 2 outs instead of 11. It's not a snap call, but if you think he is the type to turn a hand that was raising for value on the flop like T9 into a bluff on the turn, I could see a call being an option. Based on the info provided, I would fold every time.
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