November 6, 2018
Live Hand No Limit 200, 5 handed
Effective 200-ish BB.
Villain is pretty good player, investing in his education for last 3 years, understand the game and knows well players opens 6 from HJ. CO calls, Hero 3bets from BU with AA to 24, blinds fold, V calls, CO folds.
Standard 3bet, do not want multiway.
*** FLOP *** [7Q2r] ($57)
HJ X, Hero bets 23, HJ calls
Interesting flop, not much connected to 3bet caller range, still do not see reason not to cbet. V can make a call with all his range just in case I am cbeting to much (was/am guilty of that).
*** TURN ***[7Q2r] [9r] ($103)
HJ X, Hero bets 67, HJ calls
Created some draws for V, but not much. Now equities are running pretty close I think, still decided to bet.
*** RIVER ***[7Q2r] [9r][blank]($237)
V called the big turn bet and checks again. During the hand I was thinking that I am in the situation of “way ahead, way behind” (he called 2 streets and looks pretty confident). I beat Qx which is not big chunk of his range and loose to sets… So I decided to check behind. Did I left some money on the table?
Hero win 237 with AA against AQo. Villain said he was ready to call bet up to 50%-ish…
Had some concerns about V to check/raise me and I know myself being very bad in bet/folding in these spots ()
What to do you guys think?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
You’re on the right track with your thinking, but there’s room to be a lot more rigorous. You say that Qx is only a small part of his range, but aren’t sets an even smaller apart? When in doubt about how widely you can value bet, there are two ways to approach it:
1. Try to predict your opponent’s strategy. This is the exploitive approach. If you can do that, great. In this case, it would just mean predicting whether and how much he would call with a Q vs how likely he would be to play a set like this (wouldn’t he have some incentive to raise the turn? Or to fold preflop, for that matter?).
2. Consider his incentives. This is the equilibrium approach. He’ll rarely have a hand better than AA, that should be obvious. So the question is how much incentive he has to call with lesser hands. The threat of a bluff is what gives him that incentive. So what bluffs could you have here? How easily could you hold a hand without showdown value that might try to bluff? That tells you whether and how much you can value bet.
November 6, 2018
Sorry for late thank you, Andrew. But really appreciate your answer.
Any way, it toke me couple day to deeply understand your answer. And first of all now I undersrtand that made a mistake in estimating how much Q he has in his range comparing to monsters. Not sure if I see any incentive to raise the turn with sets for V…
Approach 2 is very interesting and something I do not think enough during the hand and many time even when analyze hands.
thanks again!
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
nkarapet said
Not sure if I see any incentive to raise the turn with sets for V…
There’s always incentive to raise strong hands. That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the best play, but you’d always like to make the pot larger. His incentive comes primarily from two places:
1. The risk that you have a draw that will either pay off a raise or fold away equity if he raises turn but may not put any more money unless it improves on the river.
2. The risk that you have a good but not great hand that may pay off a turn raise but check behind the river if given the opportunity. You know, like you did 🙂
November 6, 2018
Yes, it make sense… I understand this. But he also have incentive to let me continue bluffing, right? I may fold mediocre hand on his raise, but can river some show down value and pay off.
How I decide during a hand which incentive win in his head?
Even putting myself in his shoes. I have a set and V is betting into me on turn. How I decide which line to take?I mean how to make this decisions profitable?
When I was just looking into my own cards poker was so much easier… 🙂
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Like I said, “That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the best play”. I was responding to you saying you didn’t see any incentive for him to raise sets. The question you’re asking is the right one, but it’s a big one. Have you seen my Getting Paid series? It talks about how to think about which hands in Villain’s range to target and how.
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