I had been playing for about 20 minutes at my local casino, 2/3NL $300 max buy in. I had about $400 in front of me. I had one previous hand with villain. I had 99, raised from EP and got called by villain. I flopped a set and got 3 streets of value. I think he called down with top pair because when I flipped over my hand he said “I can beat a pair of nines.” Then the dealer told him I had a set and he said, “oh, a SET of nines. No I can't beat that.”
Villain had been very active, playing about 70-80% of hands, raising with about 40%. I had seen him raise PF with 43o in EP and other trash hands. After the flop I would see him call a lot and lead out a lot if no one had bet, but I hadn't seen him reraise anyone yet.
I picked up the AQ in the BB. Villain opened for $13, Button called, and I 3bet to $31. Villain called and the button folded. (it's really tough to range him at this point, I think he could have anything)
Pot: $77
Flop: QT3
I lead out for $35 and villain calls. He had been calling people down very light, so I was of the state of mind that this was exactly the situation that I had been looking for. I thought he might have some kind of draw or maybe a pair. Any pair.
Pot: $147
Turn: 7
I lead out for $55, and right after I put my chips out villain says “All in.” Very quickly. I hadn't seen him raise before. At this point I am confused and I don't know what he could have. I have about $300 behind, and I don't know if I should call or fold.
Thank you for your replies!
March 8, 2013
I would have made your 3bet larger to charge him when you are in bad position and he is playing a wide range.
I would also bet turn larger – make it big enough that shoving the river is a more normal bet size.
When he shoves, you need just over 35% equity to make the call. You have between 15-35% equity against various types of hands that are beating you, and over 80% equity when you are ahead. Given that he is playing strangely and you only have 20 minutes of information, I wouldn't assume you're always beat, and mathematically, your hand is just very strong. You need to call.
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