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A8s with 2 pair on the turn facing an all in
SIGABA
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June 24, 2014 - 1:36 am
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I was waiting for my 2/3NL game to open up, so I sat down at a 1/2 $100 max buy in to kill time while I waited.  We were playing 5 handed.  I had played about 10 minutes.  One notable hand was I had raised from EP with 9Ts and flopped an open-ender, bet the flop, hit my straight on the turn, I bet the turn and river and was called down by a calling station.  This is the second hand I played.

 

Stacks = Hero:  $140  SB:  $200  BB:  $50

 

I have Aheart8heart UTG, I raise to $7.  It folds around to the SB and BB who both call.  The BB is the one that I stacked with my straight, and the SB had been playing very loose.

 

Pot = $21

Flop:  Aclub Qspade 9diamond

 

They both check and I bet $13.

SB calls.  When he called he thought for a while.  I couldn't tell if he was thinking of raising or if he was trying to see if he was getting odds for some kind of draw that he had, but he took about 5-6 seconds to call.

BB  quickly calls.

 

Pot = $60

Turn: 8spade

 

They both check again, and I bet $25 with my 2 pair.  The SB moves all in, and the BB folds.  Now it's on me.  I have $95 left in my stack, he has me covered.  He seemed really comfortable with his hand.  I took a while and tried to get him talking, but he didn't oblige.  I was pretty sure he didn't have AA or QQ because he didn't 3bet PF.  He could have A9 or 99, or JT makes sense too.  KspadeJspade might take this line.  He could have also called w/ Q9 or Q8.

 

Pot = 60 + 25 + 25 + 95 = $205

To call = $95

 

Now that I'm writing this out it seems like a clear call to me.  I'm getting over 2 to 1.  What do you guys think?  Thank you!

jonmon101
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June 24, 2014 - 2:24 am
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I would just fold. Unless he’s bad enough to show up w like AK or something here I just don’t think we’re ahead of enough hands.

jacobsharktank
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June 26, 2014 - 11:31 pm
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If you include all JT, and Q8 only, you're getting 32.64% against that range and need 31.7% equity. If you add 99, it drops to 29.27% if you then add KJss in there, it's 33.42%. It sort of hovers around where you need it to be, and this is a cash game. I have leaks where I pay people off too easily or valueown myself, but this is pretty close to even. If villain doesn't play even just 1/4 of his straights this way, then your equity increases a bunch.

 

As for your live reads, a villain that's loose will have a really wide range and on top of that, probably calls incorrectly on his draws and put money in with more pairs. that said, he'll have gutshots that he calls and second pairs. villain can show up with T9ss, which adds about 2% if you keep the range i adjusted to. 

SIGABA
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June 27, 2014 - 12:23 am
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Thanks Jacob.  That makes me feel a little better.

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