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Variance....what a bitch
OkieNGa
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May 14, 2012 - 1:06 pm
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     As some of you may know I run a year long league where the top top 20% of the field wins a trip to vegas and a buy in to a 1500 WSOP NLHE event.  It is a fairly small affair, this last year we had 23 participants to start, but one dropped out, which meant we are sending 4 people to Vegas.  In these tournies, the points are top heavy much like a 90 man SnG pay out and we get 10pts for each knockout.  I started out strong, winning one of the first 6 tournies a few top 5s and final tabling the rest which put me in the top 2.  I then went on a dry spell for 4 tournaments where I did not make it to the top 10 (where the points start) a single time which caused me to fall down to 6th.  Not far enough out of fourth where I didn't have a shot of getting a trip, but far enough where I needed some solid results.   

 

    The 11th tourney came around and I was in the top 5 with about 20 BBs.  Blinds were 600/300/50 and I was in the CO.  The UTG, which has a decent game and is willing to ship appropriately jams 15 BBs, I look down at JJ.  I call without much concern knowing I was way ahead of his range.  Everyone folds and he flips over KJ….cool, now just avoid the K.   The flop, K in the window.  In my mind I could not believe this guy hit a 3 outer on me, then a J, WOOT WOOT, then another K.  Are you frickin kidding me!!!!!  I am all but out, I shove an A next hand and get called by 9s and the 9s hold.  I was able to get a few points but not enough. 

 

    The 12th and final tourney, I was 100 points behind 4th and 90 points behind 5th.  I needed to have a top 5 finish with some bounties or top 4 and the other two go out early.  The fourth place guy goes out early and is out of the running, but the next person I have to beat hangs around forever, not getting involved much unless she has a top teir hand.  Apparently the table did not get this as she was getting played back out with weak holdings which meant she had 3 knockouts on the night.  They were early on, when the tourney made it to the top 10 she shut it down and simply did not get involved much at all.

    On my side of the house, it turns out, I was having a good night, knocked out 4 people and was chipping up nicely.  I made it down to 4 handed, which would be great except the one person ahead of me in points was still hanging around.  At this point I was the chip leader but took a bad beat when I called an all in and QJ>KQ (yes he hit the J to hit his 3 outter) .  This knocked me down quite a bit but I was still 2nd in chips.  Luckily, my nemessis was knocked out fourth.  After some quick calculations I figured to win the spot without having to go to a tie breaker situation I had to either win the night or knock out the third place guy.  I was playing a bit snug but was not  knitting sweaters, I made an ill timed semi bluff when a guy had the second nutz, not good.  SO I had about 20BBs when this hand came up.

 

I am in the BB, blinds are 1000/500/100 and the short stack shoves 16BB from the button, this is the same guy who shoved KJ the previous tourney.  I know I am calling with any A and any PP above 8s, I just happen to have AK.  Call, he turns over A2……SWEET!  Flop comes out J67, turn J, River………..you guessed it 2.  Now I am left crippled, I shove next hand dbl up, let 3 more orbits go by and dbl again but get knocked out shortly there after.

 

So after 12 tournaments, I miss out on $2400 because of a 3 outter twice……….by the same damn guy 2 tournies in a row.

 

Ain't variance a bitch!

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Killingbird
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May 14, 2012 - 2:05 pm
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i can confirm that she is indeed a bitch.  yell

Donskey
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May 14, 2012 - 4:01 pm
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So that’s what it’s called, “variance”.  I call it “standard”

 

I don’t know about anyone else, but what happened to you over 12 tourneys happens all the time almost everytime I play and in fact those beats are a picnic compared to what usually happens.

 

Sometimes in a tourney, someone busts in similar situation you describe in your thread, and then they are in the chat box complaining how unlucky they are or what a stupid call or play from the guy that busted them, and they don’t stop, they go on and on about the unlucky card that came.

 

Makes me wonder if I’m unluckier than most others. They carry on like it never happens to them and when it does they are in total shock. Complete disbelief of what just happened. EH??? This stuff happens all the time almost every time I play.

 

Let's see now, from memory the last 3 – 4 tourneys I busted

 

99 < A8  Ace in window

JJ < 55  board 42T A 3

AQ < AT T on turn

A6 < 66  Where's my f**ken ace

OkieNGa
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May 14, 2012 - 5:16 pm
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LoL…….sorry, I thought this was the bad beat section, am I wrong?

 

I took several beats through the tourney, happens, big deal.  What makes this different is the same guy caught his 3 outer twice deep in two seperate tournaments back to back which between the two cost me a WSOP seat after busting my ass for a year in 10 other tournies.

Donskey
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May 14, 2012 - 8:00 pm
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I hear ya man, sucks

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