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Variance???
KushFin
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April 3, 2011 - 1:50 am
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I been playing the last week and it seems like im just losing everything. Ill provide a few examples.
Just now.. AK all in vs Q10, rainbow flop K23, running AJ to lose on bubble.
QQ losing to any ace 80% or more of the time i counted about 8 in a row.
losing 80/20s like they are 20/80s last 3 days. lost one of my whole rolls on a one site. no biggie.
Losing when im 95% about 9 times just in the last 2 days, almost always on river. 
running quads yesterday hit me. It just seems like it cant be statistically possiblefor such swings. without any upside.

I am not conserned about money at this point and I feel like im playin really well at the same time because im not losing money that fast considering these non stob bad beats.

I am just wondering if anyone experienced these types of runs where the most unreal things just seem to happen non stop and what you guys do to get over it.

I feel like if i was running normal i would be up several hundred if not more than 1k in the last week but instead im down a bunch.

I just feel like there should some sort of upswings to these downswings yet i never find my self hitting any kind of runner runner quads or sucking out when im 10 to 1 dog.

elaborate.

kuroshi
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April 3, 2011 - 12:21 pm
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Play 1000 more mtt's and your variance will even out.

bennymacca
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April 3, 2011 - 8:36 pm
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kuroshi said:

Play 1000 more mtt's and your variance will even out.

pretty much this. 
i went on a 60 buyin downswing  over about 200 tourneys and then overcame my downswing and won around 100 ABIs on top in about 10 tourneys. i dont consider this out of the ordinary. 
if you think you are playing well, just stick at it and you will get there, but make sure you are harsh on yourself about whether you have any leaks in your game or not. 
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praetor
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April 3, 2011 - 11:26 pm
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    Variance is all about the numbers, I agree with the above posts. You need volume of games.  You may get it in as a 60% favorite and loose five times in a row, but eventually it will even out as volume increases. As your volume increases the precision of the statitical accuracy becomes greater.  This use to be a huge bummer for me because I only played a game here and there on my day off, so a beat really affected me. However, I grind hard when I plan a poker day and multi-table. I noticed a huge difference, the variance does not seem bad-do to high volume, but also if I suffer a beat I move on to the next game to take my mind off of it.  Last night I was chip leader and lost 50% of my stack pretty much taking me out of a good cash. I was fuming, but I went down stairs washed dishes came back and with the remaining chips got back to almost chip leader again. Sometimes taking quick mental breaks helps as well.  Volume of games and studying your play are the best things, but also sometimes a break from the game can help as well.  It is human nature to remeber the bad in long-term memory, compared to the good.  How many good customer experiences can you remember compared to the bad?

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