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February 5, 2015
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I am excited about this idea. I have recently had a very good run and have hit the inevitable wall of negative variance.
In times past (passed?), I have always told myself that I must go through the run bad, to let the variance even itself out, which it always does.
But then I thought: my philosophy when I am running hot is that I should spend as much time as I can at the tables, to make hay while the sun shines so to speak.
If this is true, then I began to wonder whether, similarly, when I am running bad I should spend less time at the tables.
Now some might be shaking their heads here saying “no s*** Sherlock”, and for sure I have heard experienced players saying that if it becomes immediately obvious it is not going to be their night, they leave the games.
The cards are still turning when I am not playing in the games. Is it possible simply to sit out a bad streak? Keep testing the water…then return to the games when luck is once again with you? Or is that negative variance just something you cannot avoid if you accept the other side of that coin?
February 20, 2015
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Your EV because of the cards never changes. But your EV because of your skill constantly changes. As you get better, your EV goes up, of course. But if your success or failure causes you to change your play for what are essentially arbitrary reasons, then it means your skill goes down. And if your skill goes down, your EV goes down.
A shorter way to say this is that, if you’re confident you can play your best all the time, your EV doesn’t change, and you should continue to play. For most this is a challenge, me included.
In some ways the winner of the Main is the player who ran the hottest for 10 days. (Skill does help of course, but anyone can win the Main if the deck hits them hard enough.) Most people’s heaters don’t last that long, but they can, and it’s because each hand is separate from the others.
February 5, 2015
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Interesting joel…but there are prolonged periods where the cards are against me…you know the feeling, when you grab pocket kings, sigh, GII against someone, and you just know an ace will drop. You’re feeling like that because variance has been brutalising you for a prolonged period of time.
I understand what you are saying re: how other influences can lower your EV, but sometimes the cards are just against you, period.
The cards are turning at the tournaments Im not playing in right now, as I write this. I am fairly certain that should I sit down and play a session, the cards would be running against me, because of my downswing.
Is it possible to “sit out the downswing”? Is my question in its simplest terms.
February 20, 2015
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No. The cards have no memory. As a craps dealer I can tell you that dice shooters have the same mentality. The dice similarly have no memory. When you shoot a 7 one out of six times, some crazy shit can happen, but it’s all random.
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