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How to you deal with bad variance swings?
FlyGuy
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January 20, 2012 - 11:35 am
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Hey TPE'rs,

I'm on an ungodly run bad streak (100bi downswing), where I feel Im making good reads and decisions, and getting it in good almost 70% of time and yet continue to get outdrawn time and time again.

It is getting to the point where I have the correct read and execute the appropriate move, but before the flop has even come I am looking at the lobby for another tourney to load, or knowing that his 63s has connected with the board and my TT's are useless, but still i cbet and lose a ton of chips.  (definitely noticed some post flop work is in order :))

I ran a report from HM2 and this week alone I have been All-In 174 times being the favorite 69.94% of the time and winning a paltry 87 times or 50%.  Even more difficult is that when I have an 80%+ chance of winning the hand I am running at 55%.

 

So…. now that the mini-rant is over….. How the heck do you guys cope with this?  What keeps you focused and coming back to the table because right now I must admit to being frustrated!

 

Fly

running0uts
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January 20, 2012 - 1:46 pm
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Hey Fly,

downswings are the most devastating things about poker, they sap enthusiasm and confidence. But they are totally inevitable, especially in the MTTs we play and dealing with them is incredibly hard, but also incredibly important if you want to remain profitable.

It's hard to swallow but it may mean you have to move down buyins to ensure that your bankroll survives. If you are still OK to play your normal buyins then just make sure you are in the right mindset to do so, it's easy to go on tilt without realising. It might be that taking a bit of time off is what you need to get your confidence back, or maybe you are better off getting straight back into the games. Whatever it takes to get into the right mindset.

It is horrible to get it in with the best hand and expect to lose, but just because it has happened so many times in a row, the chances are still the same this time: your past beats have no influence on the flip coming up.

Today could be the end of your downswing! Good luck dude, TID

bigheaddave
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January 20, 2012 - 2:21 pm
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averages ALWAYS work out….looks like to me that you are sitting on a good run…..be prepared to take advantage… I expect to see a final table post soon….hang in there and gl

Moizt
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January 20, 2012 - 4:32 pm
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This is why I don't play MTTs anymore… I couldn't bear with the swings and variance. I learned sit n gos, and have been grinding those for ages and making a solid profit. DONs and fifty50s are really low variance and I hope someday to be able to play those games for a living. If you wish to play MTTs though, I'd take a break when you're in a downswing, analyse your hand histories with the universal replayer, and have a positive attitude. I started becoming a winning player when I read RFB's article named “stop whining start winning”. I don't know what it is, but when you have a positive attitude, you somehow win more 70:30s, flips, and you suck out more, lol. Just keep your mindset good, and make sure you're happy is my main advice for dealing with a downswing.

FlyGuy
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January 22, 2012 - 6:54 pm
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Thanks for the replies fella's.

 

Decided to take the weekend off and instead of playing just hung out with friends.  This week will be more of a study week going over hand histories, videos, etc…  So only perhaps 4 tournaments per day instead of 14-16.

 

Looking forward to the heater 🙂

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January 23, 2012 - 3:37 am
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Having other hobbies, is a big plus for downswings.  Even though hand reviews and study of the game is good. Sometimes you need to walk away from the game for a couple of days. If you have another hobbie it can help take your mind off the variance and cool down.

"Your either in Sheen's Korner or your with the trolls."

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