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October 6, 2012
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I understand that one of the factor to be a successful poker player is to put your opponent on a certain range, calculate your odds in different situation, make the best decision accordingly, get in races as a favourite and accumulate chips to withstand some bad beat to mention only a few.
For an example, the last 10 tournaments I played, I busted 9x times being a favourite pre-flop to win the hand (< 25BB) and lost a coin flip the 10th time. Here are some percentages: 1) 81% vs 19% 2) 71% vs 29% 3) 54% vs 46% 4) 62% vs 38% 5) 70% vs 30% 6) 66% vs 34% 7) 56% vs 44% 8) 66% vs 34% 9) 61% vs 39%. I do understand the concept of variance in MTT, nevertheless over a large sample these results (losing being a favourite) has been confirmed.
I have been working a lot recently on my game, watching a lot of TPE videos, integretating new features into my game and reflecting also on previous play. I believe I greaty improve but my results haven't. Even though I more than statistically normal loose these important races being a favourite, I managed to keep my calm and did not go on tilt.
Nevertheless it is very frustrating to be hindered to go much deeper in a tournament by constantly losing these races. I'm starting to be fed up and my bankroll has totally vanished, even though playing at the right limit (1'500$ bankroll, max. 15$ buy-in but I played max. 11$ buy-in).
I'm thinking about quitting poker for better horizon. Or….is there any remedy to that? or is someone just unlucky? What can I do to be better in that sense?
Thanks
June 3, 2012
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I mean thats a brutal run mate, but 10 tournys is not a large enough sample to counter for varience. When they say you need to have 100 buy ins for a certain tourny as a bankroll its because you can have runs like this, trust me ive had them too. Its hard but you need to realise that your getting it in good and eventually they will hold.
Hope you get better luck!
May 30, 2012
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you realise taking your bustout hand massively skews the sample, since you lose 100% of your bustout hands. winning flips and running well is neccesary to winning tournaments, the rest of the stuff we do is to make sure that when we do run ok that we put ourselves into good positions to kick on and win tournaments. most tournaments are lost by small leaks rather than big flips.
May 30, 2012
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When it comes to probability games, variance is part of the package. As stated your sample is too small to come to such a drastic decision as giving up. Saying that, variance affects people in different ways. It does not make you any lesser a person, it might just be your make up, some can handle it better than others.
The bottom line is, the maths will always and I mean always win. The mean, the expected value, the positive turnover will always win in the long run, and that's the hard part to get your head around, it's the long run, the long term, not the short run or short term.
If I can exaggerate an example. If a winning player with a consistent edge played 1 million tourneys and his winning worm is graphed, it would look pretty much like a steady rising flat line (worm) from 0 to whatever amount of money his winning, lets say 10 million dollars on the expected value for his edge.
If you magnify any section of that worm to say 200 – 400 tourneys, it would not look like a steady rising flat worm anymore, it would would look very volatile. There would be sections where he is losing more than he should be (deviations to the left, away from the expected mean) and there would be sections where he is winning more than he should be (deviations to the right, away from the expected mean), and of course there would be sections where he is playing right on expectation, but at any given short term view, the volatility will usually be very apparent. That player at times would be in states of depression, breaking objects, ready to throw the towel in, the whole world coming down around him, but in the end, he stuck to it and received the rewards of his labour and obtained the expectation of his game.
It's not easy, otherwise everyone will be doing it. The poker gods, like to test players, see what they're made of, they're gonna try and break you, gonna try and crush you, make you doubt and give up, make you into a cowboy poker player (play only on feelings and no maths, start changing bet sizes and opening ranges and limping etc).
It is unfortunate you busted your bankroll. I hope you can scratch up another and give it another go. I know what you're feeling, I've been there, and I'm sure most poker players at some time have been in your position. Good luck hope it all works out for ya.
May 30, 2012
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Duggs is spot on when he says most tournaments are lost by small leaks rather than big flips. In almost all of the videos on this site the hero loses a big flip or gets sucked out on at some stage, but they survive because they've been steadily accumulating chips up until that point and the loss doesn't bustthem. Really study how they go about chip accumulation and maximising value from their big hands. You'll find that so many times in the same spot you wouldn't get as much value as they do, or conversely lose as little as they do when beaten.
October 22, 2012
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Donskey said:
It's not easy, otherwise everyone will be doing it. The poker gods, like to test players, see what they're made of, they're gonna try and break you, gonna try and crush you, make you doubt and give up, make you into a cowboy poker player (play only on feelings and no maths, start changing bet sizes and opening ranges and limping etc).
It is unfortunate you busted your bankroll. I hope you can scratch up another and give it another go. I know what you're feeling, I've been there, and I'm sure most poker players at some time have been in your position. Good luck hope it all works out for ya.
soo true
TPE Management
April 6, 2010
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some very good well thought out responses ITT.
July 7, 2012
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I dont know what site you are playing on or the field sizes you're playing in; but you might want to consider either switching to a site that has smaller field sizes for your BR. If you have improved your skill edge, playing in smaller fields should mean that you will cash more often. Granted the cashes and the wins will be smaller but they are more attainable. A steady stream of smaller cashes / FTs will boost your confindence and your BR. You could also consider playing some smaller field SNGs for the same reason, although this is a slightly different skill set. Check out my BR builder post based on stars Fifty50 SNGs. Doing something like this on the side of MTTs will help take the sting out of the MTT varience and boost your confidence at the same time.
June 30, 2012
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I think you need to wrap your head around the fact that eventhough you're 80% favorite, you're still going to lose the pot 20% of the time, that's a fifth of the time, which is huge. Variance will happen, and aslong as you apply solid bankroll management, your bankroll shouldn't really “vanish”. If you find yourself to be losing over a bigger sample then 10 tournaments, keep working on your game, try out new things, look at hand histories, or even get coaching.
November 12, 2012
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Not to make you feel worse but… 9 hands lost as a favorite really isn't anything out of the ordinary so you need to try to mentally prepare yourself for it to continue. Luck in NLHE is why bad players still play. Also keep in mind that luck and variance can manifest in a number of ways. While you may be running bad in all-in races, you could be running good in other areas…. for example you might actually be making mistakes in smaller pots and just getting lucky to get away with it, which makes you think you made a good bluff or call or whatever. It's really hard to see that sometimes. That's why you have to always review the HH's and be self critical/reflective.
Aliases: drx975 (Stars/FTP), donkrx (Merge)
May 31, 2012
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Grind micro stakes for a bit-You wont be thinking about the money and that means playing better poker. It sucks not to be making solid money but back off for a while. It helped me while working thru my bad beat stretch I thought would never end.
June 30, 2012
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@Spider – Quite the contrary for most. Many people can't take micros seriously due to the fact that they don't care about $1, so they will make light calls just to see what others have, and many more mistakes. You get bored fast at micros if you're used to playing higher, so you won't play better, but you'll play worse.
October 6, 2010
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i dont think you have to grind micros, but dropping down slightly is good
i.e take the highest buyin games out of your schedule, and add a lower variance game at the bottom.
going to grind 180s or small field MTTs for a while can be good though
October 9, 2012
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Hi guys,
Decided to look at this thread after losing with AA all in pre flop SEVEN times in a row.
However, that's not my main reason for adding a comment but i was hoping you'd all feel sorry for me
The previous comments are all really good so won't add further to them.. well done guys !
What i'm really wanting to say myself is , i do believe that some players, with great poker ability, never make it up the stakes, because they're on the wrong side of variance whenever they try to move up stakes and the bankroll gets decimated. Then back down the stakes to grind up the bankroll again, hoping to then make another attempt at the higher stakes.
What i did to counter this was to set aside 10% of my weekly profit and use that profit and that profit only to buy into 1 or more higher stakes tourneys.
If i didn't make a profit then there was no higher stakes tourney reward for me.
One or two big wins later on the higher stakes and i could move up a level more permanently.
Anyway, worked for me ……. eventually 
Regards
Muttley66
November 19, 2012
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You're probably just the unluckiest person in poker. One time I met this guy who every time he had KK an ace flopped. Every time!
May 30, 2012
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TiltedEV said:
You're probably just the unluckiest person in poker. One time I met this guy who every time he had KK an ace flopped. Every time!
When did we meet?
July 7, 2012
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Donskey said:
TiltedEV said:
You're probably just the unluckiest person in poker. One time I met this guy who every time he had KK an ace flopped. Every time!
When did we meet?
“I'm Sparticus!”
I think KK is the hand that defines when you are definitely on a downswing, no matter what you do or how that hand is played out, you will lose with it. Think my record was losing with it 8 consequtive times in 2 days – that hurt.
October 9, 2012
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Turbulence said:
Donskey said:
TiltedEV said:
I think KK is the hand that defines when you are definitely on a downswing, no matter what you do or how that hand is played out, you will lose with it. Think my record was losing with it 8 consequtive times in 2 days – that hurt.
I managed to lose AA 8 times in a row with pre flop all ins last week .. That really hurt .. especially as on the 7th time i punched and cracked my £500 monitor .. That hurt even more !
On a more encouraging note, i'm running hotter than the sun this week and could buy myself 3 new monitors, so stick at it Magic_Waldi .. keep getting your money in good and it'll come !
July 7, 2012
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Muttley66 said:
Turbulence said:
Donskey said:
TiltedEV said:
I think KK is the hand that defines when you are definitely on a downswing, no matter what you do or how that hand is played out, you will lose with it. Think my record was losing with it 8 consequtive times in 2 days – that hurt.
I managed to lose AA 8 times in a row with pre flop all ins last week .. That really hurt .. especially as on the 7th time i punched and cracked my £500 monitor .. That hurt even more !
On a more encouraging note, i'm running hotter than the sun this week and could buy myself 3 new monitors, so stick at it Magic_Waldi .. keep getting your money in good and it'll come !
yeah, I know that one lol thats why I invested in a punch bag. You can hit it multiple times and it doesnt cost you a cent! my mouse still gets the occansional punishment but they're alot cheaper to replace.
July 12, 2012
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I would also ask how many coin flips did you win in the tournaments? I don't like getting in coin flips because they are coin flips.
We've all had AA cracked but we've also cracked em a few times too. I stayed alive against pocket 10s with KJs because I thought the villain was squeezing. I rivered the hand in that one only to have AA cracked by QJ suited by a flopped straight later. It's trite but shit happens. I'm on a downswing now but not because I'm playing badly.
"…if he fails, he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat."-Teddy Roosevelt
October 6, 2010
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everyone goes on a downswing even when they are not playing badly. that is the reason why we follow bankroll management rules. my advice is to make sure you are sticking to your rules, and get your grind on!
July 12, 2012
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OK…my turn…4th time in a row I've flopped a set only to lose to a flush. I guess I could've just called instead of thinking “it can't happen again”
"…if he fails, he fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who knew neither victory nor defeat."-Teddy Roosevelt
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