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Coin flips

Third@eye

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April 28, 2011 - 1:21 pm

I'v recently changed my game a little, if i have an idea of my opponents range and i'm getting about 50/50 to 55/45 to me against my opponents range I'll normally just call and then try out play my opponent post flop. Recently tho iv been pushing and re raiseing alot more to give myself the 50/50 + the chance of them folding. I'v been playing mainly €5 to €10 Sng's and tourneys.

To be honest in these tourneys it is rare to get a fold from someone holding from 22-1010 910s-KQos. My reads have been very good due to my extensive notes, but even in a 10 player Sng i'm getting all in about 4-6 times now on my 50/50 shots so on average i'm losing these shots about 2-3 times per Sng and obviously more when I play against more players. I have basicly gone from winning 1st place like 3 out of 5 Sng's to just making it into the money 1 out of 5. I really want to adapt a more aggresive style to my play but i'm now thinking that my tight early agg late style must have played much better mainly due to results. Is it bad play of me to get my money in there on these 50/50 shots? or is it just a bad run and things could change if I continue with this style?

Also i'v been trying stealing more from late pos and getting called and rr'ed far too much. I feel now like i'm playing the same as the rest of my table plays and have lost my advantage against them all. Cheers 🙂

Sorry if this is in the wrong forum, i saw variance and thought “that must be it”

bennymacca

Adelaide Australia

Road Gambling with Doyle

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April 28, 2011 - 11:43 pm

in SNGs, tight early super agg late is definitely the correct strategy.

if you have a significant skill edge on the field, and you are relatively deepstacked (i.e early on) then i dont think you should be flippinng that often as you are reducing your edge on the field to a coin flip.

My Personal Blog: .....ymacca.com

hapetimes

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April 29, 2011 - 12:15 am

completely agree with benny's early and late game strategy

just to clarify exactly why it's is suboptimal flipping in a STT;

everyone starts with the same amount of chips and therefore all have the same amount of equity given we assume perfect play and everyones the same

If one person ends up doubling up in the 1st hand, he has twice as many chips as everyone else but he does NOT have twice as much equity/or in other words he doesnt have twice as much chance of winning as everyone else. (after all i'm sure we've all doubled up early in a SnG and then not even cashed).

In a STT it is widely known that the MORE chips you have, the LESS they are worth individually and therefore when you double up, you dont have twice as much equity as you started with. In this case, the equity from what was originally the other guy who lost, is divided up amongst the remaining players equally.

Clearly a reason to be super tight early, and also how we gain equity from other players being knocked around us.

I have also been opening up wider from late pos but still seem to be getting flatted or 3 bet from button SB and BB a lot and somehow think this isnt a great strategy for me atm. I know a lot of high stakes regs have a much wider range than i do in all positions, but until i am super happy with my post flop play i'm aborting that trial for now.

Third@eye

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April 29, 2011 - 2:52 pm

Thanks guys, I went back to my normal way of playing last night and started to cash again so for my €5 to €10 i'll be sticking with my super tight start to super agg finish style until i think it needs changing.

I think this style is maybe more profitable in an sng than a tourney as your going to end up at the final table with the same players you started with at your 1st table, and if they have been watching at all, they will know your tight and be more likely to fold when you go into aggresive mode.

Saying that tho I played in a €1 tourney last week with a €5000 Guarantee (with 1028 players) Nice Value laugh . I only played premium hands and was willing to fold JJ and lower and AQ and lower if it ment my tourney was on the line with a call (against unknown players ofcourse). I got 1st place of €1026 and only went aggressive(with allins) when my M was lower than 5 and agressed up a little at the final table, but still wasn't playing lower than 910s unopened or lower than AQs or JJ to raises. You dont even need premium hands that often to play this way as later on with all the desperate players you can normally get doubled up or a big pot of blinds when you do get the premiums (and have an M of 10+). I think this play is only any good for the low stakes tho.

Cheers for replying Ben n Carl :))

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