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Can't win anymore
Moizt
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November 25, 2011 - 4:49 pm
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I came to this site 3 days ago. Before that, I was a breakeven player, until I broke free from my shell and finally started winning pretty consistantly, and getting a grasp on my game. I wanted to improve my game, so I joined TPE, and since then I haven't cashed in a single tournament. I have looked at videos, and I try to do exactly what the TPE pros do, however I can't seem to catch a break. I have studied a lot of the videos, especially stack sizing, and I seem to get my reads spot on most of the time, yet I still lose. I have lost about 1/2 of my bankroll (I started with 100 buyins on my account, went 50 straight MTTs without cashing)

 

Is this just variance? Should I watch even more videos? Should I not adjust my play as drastically? I can't seem to return to playing like I used to now I have looked at the videos. I need advice bad, since I don't want to lose my roll. My graph looks highly embarassing too, so I won't post it just yet. frown

ryanw
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November 25, 2011 - 5:29 pm
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variance is a bitch. In the past three days after playing a tourney for a few hours and getting deep, i keep getting all in good, but raped by a lesser hand to kill my run. AA vs QQ x2, AK vs A10, AK vs AQ, A5 with two pair to get beat by A4 runner runner flush. I am hating the players on pokerstars for their terrible plays, and my horrible luck.

 

I can only hope it'll even out soon.

Moizt
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November 25, 2011 - 6:04 pm
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I agree buddy. Variance can really be a hit to your gut. I feel like my play is good, but I haven't even final tabled a 180man SNG in a week, and I used to FT it 3-4 times a day (and playing about a quarter of what I do now)

 

My Sharkscope graph basically has a huge uppeak of when I final tabled a lot, and now it's just going down and I can't catch a break. Kinda disappointing really!

Moizt
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November 25, 2011 - 7:14 pm
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Just hit another cooler on the money bubble… This is getting so ridiculous. JJ v QQ v AA, I had the JJ and I was short so I was eager to get it in there.

cousteer
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November 25, 2011 - 8:25 pm
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It can indeed be soul destroying… My last 4 sessions have been taxed the most ever! I havent even mincashed which has tormented my perception of my own ability. My ROI has dipped into negative territory for the first time this year.
With the exception of a few acknowledged leaks that I’m working on, I’ve been pretty satisfied with my play. My nemesis has been an incredible frequency of pushing 20bigs into aces, usually BvB and also suffering to laughable runner, runner nut hands. It sucks, cause it’s typically close to the bubble. Everyone experiences this, you can only really laugh about it, force yourself to shrug it off, take a break, and reload once the feeling is numb. The worm will turn, but there is always more work that needs to be done in the meantime.

5 Things that im trying to do to get out of this funk!
1. Tighten up pre-antes,
2. Avoid OOP 2 and 3- barrel semi bluffs … My biggest leak! Rather pot control OOP!
3. Experiment with delayed c-bets
4. Take more player notes,
5. Increase my jam/fold play to 20BB, rather than my previous nitty 10BB stimulus

And one more…. I’m keeping clear of turbo small field SnGs… Although I’ve built my role playing them it’s a ****ing grind! Larger field MTTs are currently on the menu, the odd score here and there will quickly remediate an ailing ROI…

Moizt
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November 25, 2011 - 8:32 pm
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I actually smiled when I read your post. The 5 things you mentioned are the EXACT things I'm doing. I c-bet around 95% of the pots in position heads up, take lots of player notes, fold everything except for premiums and pocket pairs pre-antes, and continue to play super solid. I haven't cashed in about 55 running MTTs. I only have around 34 buyins left on my roll, which sucks. I was deep in the 2K GTD today, but I ended off bluffing off my stack OOP with king high, which was really dumb looking back. I can definitely work on my patience, though I play pretty tight early on already.

 

I'm definitely not tilting, I don't tilt easily. I look at the hands I play when I get eliminated, and it seems fine. I might get some coaching, but I don't want to spend more money on working on my game, as i found TPE expensive enough really.

hapetimes
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November 25, 2011 - 10:16 pm
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cousteer said:

It can indeed be soul destroying… My last 4 sessions have been taxed the most ever! I havent even mincashed which has tormented my perception of my own ability. My ROI has dipped into negative territory for the first time this year.
With the exception of a few acknowledged leaks that I'm working on, I've been pretty satisfied with my play. My nemesis has been an incredible frequency of pushing 20bigs into aces, usually BvB and also suffering to laughable runner, runner nut hands. It sucks, cause it's typically close to the bubble. Everyone experiences this, you can only really laugh about it, force yourself to shrug it off, take a break, and reload once the feeling is numb. The worm will turn, but there is always more work that needs to be done in the meantime.

5 Things that im trying to do to get out of this funk!
1. Tighten up pre-antes,
2. Avoid OOP 2 and 3- barrel semi bluffs … My biggest leak! Rather pot control OOP!
3. Experiment with delayed c-bets
4. Take more player notes,
5. Increase my jam/fold play to 20BB, rather than my previous nitty 10BB stimulus

And one more…. I'm keeping clear of turbo small field SnGs… Although I've built my role playing them it's a ****ing grind! Larger field MTTs are currently on the menu, the odd score here and there will quickly remediate an ailing ROI…

nice summary cousteer

 

i also have been in a rutt lately until a few days ago making a few final tables

– i def followed your #1 and just nitted up early

– i almost completely held off bluffing unless i was in position and had a very very clear read on villain

– your #3 is interesting – im reading 'raiser's edge' and elky and the guys state that in position they delay Cbet a lot more than i have been, 70% of the time vs weak players whe in position. and they balance this by checking behind top pair around 30% of the time

vs LAGG good players they suggest checking behind top pair more frequently so as to not bloat the pot with 1 pair and be unsure where we are when they check raise us

– i also take a lot of notes but i always have

again i like your #5 – these are higher variance plays that can build chip stacks fast.. i always take into account the OR's position and stack size when i do this but generally its a play i use when im in the blinds/btn c/o and im jamming on an OR in LP with FE

 

I really like these rules in general and if we maitain our discipline and stick to these, all that remains is the tide to turn and the $$$ to come in..

badabing78
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November 26, 2011 - 7:22 am
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hapetimes said:

– your #3 is interesting – im reading 'raiser's edge' and elky and the guys state that in position they delay Cbet a lot more than i have been, 70% of the time vs weak players whe in position. and they balance this by checking behind top pair around 30% of the time

vs LAGG good players they suggest checking behind top pair more frequently so as to not bloat the pot with 1 pair and be unsure where we are when they check raise us

 

im also halfway through the book, and so laltely i experiment a lil more with the delayed c bet and it works fine so far.

 

 

badabing78
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November 26, 2011 - 7:26 am
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@moizt: i guess everyone experience those dry phases and they suck big time,  i'd recommend that you lower your buyins to avoid risking to burn your whole roll until you get back on track. and maybe dont try to hard to play like the pros in the video, try to work some concepts they show slowly in your game , you dont have to change your whole game immediately if you are a winning player. tpe will definetly make you a better player 😉

Moizt
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November 26, 2011 - 8:14 am
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Thanks, I'm doing that right now. I'm really working on playing super tight, even throughout the ante stages, which I always did when I was winning. I hope to cash a few times today, so I can actually break out of my dry streak. The money is just a bonus. I'm getting super sick of bubbling every single time.

bigheaddave
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November 26, 2011 - 12:19 pm
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laughCoach yourself…go back and get your 20 most recent hand hisories and review them….I will guarantee you that you will find spots that you should not have been involved in and probobly should have been involved in…..variance is a bitch and eventually your heater will come, just make sure you take advantage of it……all players , even the best of the best at times doubt their abilities when a massive downswing occurs…..key is to keep making the proper decisions and by all means keep finding those +ev spots to get your money in…the wins will come……GL bigheaddavelaugh
hapetimes
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November 26, 2011 - 2:40 pm
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one more thing to add that helped me during my downswing

 

– I played less tables

 

Obv easier to concentrate and see all action during hands you're not involved in yourself

If it means going from 10 tables to 5 or from 6 tables to 3 i think it will help

Also will help control your roll a litle bit more as your daily volume will be lower

Moizt
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November 26, 2011 - 4:26 pm
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I've moved from playing 6 tables to playing a whopping 1 TABLE. I was just playing an MTT, and we were in the final 200, sitting on an average stack during the whole tourny, until I lose 3 coinflips in a row, and get eliminated. All of the coinflips were +EV spots, as there was a lot of dead money in the pot, and going all in preflop was definitely the best move. I have gone over my hand history, and I learn something new everytime I get knocked out, however this time I don't feel that I did anything wrong. Getting queens in VS AdiamondKdiamond and him flopping Aclub5diamond3diamond doesn't make me feel much better, lol.

 

I hope my heater will come soon. I'm definitely on the top of my game, but I need some luck to final table some MTTs for once!

MakinMovesMitch
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November 26, 2011 - 11:00 pm
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Your luck will turn soon my friend. I myself ran into three rediculous live tournies in which i couldnt catch a break. All three tournies I was tripled up by the first break. In the first one, I lose at the final Table in 9th when 5 players get paid.

Get my AK in vs A3 to lose (it was my third shove in a row, lady with A3 says “i told you i was gonna catch you if you keep shoving” my head almost exploded at her stupidity.)

Next tourney, right before final table AK vs AJ and lose again.

 

Then at final table in most recent tourney, AKs vs A10s, he rivers nut flush to cripple me. ( i ended up coming back to chop for a win) but my point is the variance has no allies and likes to mess with us all sometimes. Three times AK vs a weaker ace only to lose.

 

Best of luck in your next battle. Youll take one down soon.

ryanw
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November 26, 2011 - 11:22 pm
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I was just in perfect position to gain chip lead against a spewy huge stack, and then…

 

Poker Stars $2.00+$0.20 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t60/t120 Blinds + t15 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

nfld77 (UTG+1): BB = 45.1, t5418
Hero (UTG+2): BB = 224.3, t26920
Everlastrr (MP1): BB = 121.5, t14575
LINCOLN231 (MP2): BB = 71.8, t8610
sstevennn123 (CO): BB = 65.0, t7795
fifibrandon (BTN): BB = 77.8, t9339
goncaes (SB): BB = 220.7, t26487
Kanuni_66 (BB): BB = 100.7, t12088
KArhip (UTG): BB = 97.1, t11648

Pre Flop: (t315) Hero is UTG+2 with K of clubs K of spades
KArhip raises to t240, nfld77 calls t240, Hero raises to t1005, 4 folds, goncaes calls t945, Kanuni_66 calls t885, KArhip calls t765, 1 fold

Flop: (t4395) 8 of diamonds 8 of clubs 2 of hearts (4 players)
goncaes checks, Kanuni_66 checks, KArhip checks, Hero bets t3115, goncaes calls t3115, Kanuni_66 folds, KArhip folds

Turn: (t10625) J of clubs (2 players)
goncaes bets t7920, Hero raises to t22785 all in, goncaes calls t14432 all in

River: (t55329) J of diamonds (2 players – 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t55329
Hero shows K of clubs K of spades (two pair, Kings and Jacks)
goncaes shows A of diamonds J of hearts (a full house, Jacks full of Eights)
goncaes wins t55329

Moizt
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November 27, 2011 - 7:48 am
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Ouch man. Losing that hand must've been painful. There are indeed periods where you lose every flip in +EV situations. I'm trying to play 3-5 MTTs a day now (I used to play around 15 a day) but I need to wait for the tide to turn and my heater to BURN! wink

 

I'm ready to put another $200 on pokerstars if I happen to lose my roll, then I might just grind some rebuy MTTs and go for the big scores!

Moizt
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November 27, 2011 - 7:57 am
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Lol, while i was typing the message above, this happens

 

*********** # 1 **************
PokerStars Game #71211640993: Tournament #548010217, $1.00+$0.10 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level VIII (150/300) - 2011/11/27 7:53:26 ET
Table '548010217 221' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Asj.Taylor (5502 in chips) 
Seat 2: raserAA (11645 in chips) 
Seat 4: Moizt (8045 in chips) 
Seat 5: cubefish (5545 in chips) 
Seat 6: nino2301 (5252 in chips) 
Seat 7: gradje39 (12148 in chips) 
Seat 8: Almostrosey (9190 in chips) 
Seat 9: nemira27 (18100 in chips) 
Asj.Taylor: posts the ante 25
raserAA: posts the ante 25
Moizt: posts the ante 25
cubefish: posts the ante 25
nino2301: posts the ante 25
gradje39: posts the ante 25
Almostrosey: posts the ante 25
nemira27: posts the ante 25
raserAA: posts small blind 150
Moizt: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Moizt [Ks Ac]
cubefish: folds 
nino2301: folds 
gradje39: folds 
Almostrosey: raises 600 to 900
nemira27: folds 
Asj.Taylor: folds 
raserAA: folds 
Moizt: raises 7120 to 8020 and is all-in
Almostrosey: calls 7120
*** FLOP *** [9s 9d Jh]
*** TURN *** [9s 9d Jh] [8d]
*** RIVER *** [9s 9d Jh 8d] [Qc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Moizt: shows [Ks Ac] (a pair of Nines)
Almostrosey: shows [Ad Qd] (two pair, Queens and Nines)
Almostrosey collected 16390 from pot
Moizt finished the tournament in 1018th place
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 16390 | Rake 0 
Board [9s 9d Jh 8d Qc]
Seat 1: Asj.Taylor (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: raserAA (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: Moizt (big blind) showed [Ks Ac] and lost with a pair of Nines
Seat 5: cubefish folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: nino2301 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: gradje39 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Almostrosey showed [Ad Qd] and won (16390) with two pair, Queens and Nines
Seat 9: nemira27 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

Average stack was 12-13k and i had about 23 bigs, almo was playing super tight so I expected him to call after 3xing. 
Oh well, maybe next time I'll be the one getting lucky yell

 

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