Okay, so here is the deal. So many players complain about getting their money in good and being unlucky all the time. What I am proposing is doing a little recording and trying to prove are you really unlucky or are you making bad shoves/picking bad spots. This is something I am going to do to help determine if I am shoving/calling all-ins correctly and I invite anyone who wants to answer the same question to join in. I will use this entry to post the results weekly so if folks are interested in how it works or how I am tracking you can follow along. If you want to do it here is how it will work:

1. Record your hand and any opponents hands when you are involved all-in preflop

2. Record the total size of the pot and the amount you put into the pot

3. Record the result of the hand (i.e. won or lost and total amount won/lost)

4. Take the hands and put them into Pokerstove to determine your equity in the hand

5. Calculate the expected value for the hand. EV = (%Win * Total Pot) – (%Lose * Total Invested)

6. Compare the EV vs. actual results. As time goes by the values should harmonize (over a large enough sample size). If the EV is negative, then I have a leak and need to work on my shove/call range. If my EV is slightly positive to neutral, same leak. If my EV is overwhelming positive I are getting my money in good, and it will even out over time (i.e. luck/variance).

So here it is, an objective mathematical methodology for determining luck vs. leak. I invite the TPE community to join in and see how your doing with me. Stay tuned for results!

Lespaulgman