It used to be easy to spot the fish at the table; he was the guy who raised to 4 big blinds and then showed AA. Over the past 5 years, the standard raise size slowly dwindled from 3+ times the big blind down to an anemic minraise (it was a recession, after all). The mindset of professionals was to entice amateurs to toss in that one big blind and try to outplay us post-flop. But nits and the elderly, rejoice! As poker is a constantly evolving game, the cool kids are now raising heavier on occasion and even varying the size of their raises depending on several different factors. The player who consistently minraises whether 10 or 200 big blinds deep and regardless of position may be the new breed of fish.
The first factor to consider when determining the optimal preflop raise size is your stack depth. Players who dabble in both tournaments and cash undoubtedly notice that raise sizing differs greatly between the two forms. In cash games where players are often 200+ blinds deep, a minraise wouldn’t accomplish very much and 5+ players would see every flop. Therefore, cash players adjust by raising 4+ times the big blind, narrowing the range of hands their opponents can profitably play and decreasing the number of players seeing the flop. It would make sense for tournament players to choose to do the same in early levels when the blinds are very low and players are all deep. It is not fishy to 4x your entire opening range at 25/50 when 20K deep. Conversely, when blinds get very high and stacks are shallower, minraising can still accomplish your objectives. Consider, for example, a hyperturbo with an average stack of 8 big blinds. A minraise represents 25% of an average stack and can still accomplish steals and produce folds from opponents because of the effect it will have on their stack size.
Position is another factor you should consider when deciding on your preflop raise size. Raising heavier in early position will narrow the number of opponents you will be facing out of position with the added benefit of making a 3 bet more expensive for your opponents to make, forcing them to define their hands should they opt to raise. You will avoid playing multi-way bloated pots out of position against ranges that haven’t been significantly narrowed by your small raise. You may want to 3x utg and decrease your raise size slightly for each position until you are minraising the cutoff and button. The reason for minraising in late position is to encourage the blinds to enter the pot with weak holdings that they will be forced to play out of position against you postflop.
An additional factor to consider when deciding on your raise size is the skill level of the opponents you still need to get through. When you are opening under the gun, you are not going to run through every opponent’s strengths and weaknesses to determine how to size the bet, but you should choose to open a much narrower range from early position at a table full of bosses than you would in a fish festival. When you are opening a hand in late position, you should consider how “sticky” your blinds are – how likely they are to defend and how difficult they are to get off of their hands after the flop. When you come across sticky players who are willing to float flops and have some postflop tricks up their sleeves, there’s no shame in raising their big blinds bigger to dissuade them from defending. On the other hand, when you come across amateur opponents who play fit or fold postflop, you can profitably minraise all day and take down small pots with continuation bets.
Varying your preflop raise size for so many different reasons will allow you to size some raises based on the strength of your holdings without opponents knowing what to make of it. The old tight nit mentioned above who 4x’s with AA because “ya gotta protect em” may come to mind here, but the game has greatly evolved over the years. When a player is varying her raise sizing for many factors unknown to her opponent, the occasional hand strength-motivated sizing will not be detectable. An example:
Player A has 8K chips at the 100/200 level of a live WSOP $1500. She is a few orbits into this hour-long level and has opened 3 pots.
On her first open, she had JJ utg and raised to 550 (2.75x) because she is deep (40bbs), in early position, and has an active table that has been liberally 3 betting players who minraise.
On her second open, she had ATo on the button and raised to 450 (2.25x) because she is in late position and the blinds are both very fishy fit or fold players who will defend with marginal holdings to small raises and check/fold to continuation bets often.
On her third open, she raised to 600 (3x) from middle position with AQo because the small blind is a competent player and the big blind is Mickey Peterson, who will defend a very wide range to a smaller raise and will play extremely well post flop to neutralize Player A’s positional advantage.
Consider in this example her reasons for 3 different raise sizes. It would take a very skilled, borderline omniscient opponent to analyze the situation and determine the reasons behind the subtle difference in her sizings. Opponents would have to know not only what level Player A is on, but how Player A feels about the skill level and tendencies of every other opponent at the table to pick up these patterns. When she has her opponents confounded by what her preflop sizing means, she can afford to throw in some raises based on her holdings to accomplish her objective of getting heads up or taking pots multi-way when she wants.
Tournament poker is a fluid and intriguing game in which plays that were considered terrible years ago are now viewed as the optimal strategy for success. I’m holding my breath for when the stop and go is cool again.
