One of the most difficult judgments to make in No Limit Hold’em comes when we’re trying to evaluate the profitability of calling preflop. We might be getting decent pot odds, but how do we decide whether they’re decent enough? After all, most hands in our range will have decent equity versus our opponent’s range preflop, so how do we decide which ones are best to call with? For this, we need a new metric – a simple way of figuring out how much equity we really have.
What do we mean by ‘realization’?
In order to explain this concept clearly, we need to outline what ‘realization’ means. In any given hand in which we have some equity of some kind (i.e. in any hand where we haven’t already folded and are not facing an all-in with the nut low hand), we have a certain share of the pot that is allocated to us as a result of this equity. In simple terms, this is exactly what ‘equity’ means – it means ‘our share of the pot’.
When we talk about realizing our equity, we’re talking about how much of that share of the pot we’re actually going to get by the end of the hand, bearing in mind the potential actions and decisions we could be faced with on this street and future ones. So if we have 40% equity in a 10bb pot, our equity is 4bb – this is fairly clear. If it were an all-in pot, things would be very simple.
However, if we stand to be faced with some very difficult decisions between now and the end of the hand, we may on average only win 2bb in that pot – we’ve only captured 50% of the 4bb that we were ‘owed’ at the beginning of the hand. So that we can discuss this concept more easily, we need some terminology we can apply to it.
Raw equity, real equity and ‘R’
Most people are fairly accustomed to calculating their raw equity in a given situation. They take their hand, plug their opponent’s range into a calculator, and figure out how much raw equity they have. They might even go one step further, and analyze the raw equity of their range versus their opponent’s range – this is a good habit to get into, but it still doesn’t provide an overall perspective on which hands have the right kind of equity and which don’t.
For example, a small pocket pair might have upwards of 40% raw equity versus a wide range of hands, which would lead one to think it would be a good hand to have in their range. But in reality, small pocket pairs are some of the most difficult hands to play postflop, so we’re often going to find ourselves check-folding the flop or turn and being unable to even get close to showing down our hand and realizing our share of the pot.
What we need, therefore, is a number that encapsulates how much equity our hand really has – i.e. how much of the pot we will actually be able to capture by the end of the hand, not just how much of the pot we’re owed at a certain point if there were no more decisions to come. That’s where we have to start talking about real equity. The relationship between raw equity and real equity is fairly clear – our raw equity is our share of the current pot at an early point in the hand, and our real equity is the share of the pot we will actually win, on average, over the long run at the end of the hand. The final piece of the jigsaw is a number that connects the two – a number that allows us to express our real equity as a percentage of our raw equity. We call this number ‘R’, and we can use ‘estimating our R’ as a tactic to help us gauge our real equity and make decisions.
Key applications
The most common situation in which we need to make a judgment of our ‘R’ is when deciding whether to make a call preflop or not, particularly in the big blind facing a raise. When there are players left to act behind us the situation is complicated by the knowledge that sometimes they’re going to 3-bet us and we’re going to have to fold, but when we’re last to act, we know we get to see a flop if we call. So let’s use that as an example.
If we’re in the big blind facing a minraise with antes in play, we’re probably getting around 4 to 1 or 4.5 to 1 pot odds. This means we need somewhere between 18-20% real equity in order to call – it’s the same as any other pot odds calculation, except we substitute real equity in for raw equity. The key here is that any hand in the deck is likely to have 18% raw equity or more (72o has 26% versus even a tight 13% opening range), but does that mean we should defend any two cards? Probably not, because many of them are very difficult to play out of position.
With many hands, our raw equity might be close to 40% versus villain’s range, and in those cases, we only need an R of just under 50% for us to call (40% raw equity x 50% R = 20% real equity). We’re out of position, so it’s going to be tough for our R to hit 100% unless villain makes some mistakes – our R could be anywhere between 25% and 75% depending on how villain plays. If we have a big edge, though, 100% or even slightly more than that is reasonable.
Contrast this with a spot where we’re in position postflop – let’s say we’re trying to decide whether to flat-call a 3-bet. We might have a hand with only 30% raw equity given that villain has a strong range, but with position and a potential edge over our opponent, our R might hit 125% or even 150%. In these spots, it might be okay to call a 3-bet with some fairly weak hands if we’re getting decent odds. A hand with lower raw equity and a higher R could be a better call (i.e. have more real equity) than a hand with better raw equity and a lower R.
In-game estimation
Estimating your ‘R’ in-game is always a tricky process, but generally it boils down to three things. Firstly, it’s a question of how playable your hand is. If it’s suited or connected, it’s likely to be a lot better than a simple high-card hand. Flopzilla can give you a good idea of which hands flop well, and with which frequencies.
Secondly, it’s a question of stack sizes. Paradoxically, it’s actually easier to exercise your full equity over shorter stacks – you’re more likely to get all-in on the flop or turn and be able to see all five cards. This is something many people ignore. Finally, it’s that question we’re never truly able to answer – do I have an edge versus this opponent, and if so, how big is it? That’s the one that requires good judgment and a realistic idea of your own abilities, and only you can figure out what those are. But the good news is, your edge might just be a little bigger now that you’ve read this article.