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CCuster911 $60 Freezout Hand History Review by Marc “aznAllin007” Alioto (Part 2)
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duggs
first hand with KJo, isnt the fact we have to call off a reason for folding pre?
duggs
6min, you say you would 3bet/fold AJ and AQ, given you just said that you think flatting sets up a squeeze why wouldnt you just flat, call off a squeeze if opener folds and fold if he gets involved?
JIMMERZZZ
6 min with kq v 3x utg raise.Given your position, what is your take on 77-1010 here?? imo AJ in this examole is a snap fold given all the action left behing plus the fact we are doing pretty bad versus the utg raisers range.
duggs
even tho we arent folding many better hands i think we can bet flop to pick up the dead money at 19min with 33,
Also marc not why you think a K is more likely after flop and turn checks around.
duggs
28min A10, his 4bet jam range will be wider than his r/c,
any merit to setting up a squeeze and calling off?
duggs
22 at 45min, I think that hero is awful and he reps way wider than sets or nothing
CCuster 911
Well no, not entirely true. The EV of plays are viewed independently. When calling pre with KJ we have to factor in his shove, that is part of the EV of calling. So if I call its because given raisers range and the range I assign him on a shove, I think I can still make chips longterm. The reason we are forced to clal his shove is because we will be getting great odds in a squeeze spot and its +EV to call given the way its played out. However that doesnt inherently make the call good. The EV of the call has to be considered on its own. For example
I can get dealt 56s with 20 BB to start the hand. Raise to 6x pre, and someone reshoves 13 BBs. IM getting great odds to call and most likely the call is +EV however the entire play isnt +EV.
So in this spot with KJ I didnt quite think that it was profitable to play in a 3 bet spot, even though I knew I had odds to call a reshove from TRADER cause I know hes crazy aggro in spots like that. Being forced to call is a very small consideration in the hand s a whole. In order to understand if I am more willing or less willing to flat pre I would have to do some math, estimate how often TRADER shoves, how often OR folds, and calculate if my expected equity is going up versus his squeeze range.
CCuster 911
Ya flatting here is a great option, obviously most people re never folding 30BB+ eff with AJ/AQ, both 3 betting against certain people with a certain table and flatting are good. In hindsight I prob prefer calling a little more than 3 betting given opponent. Good point.
CCuster 911
We are plenty deep enough to flat 77-TT and play pretty well against squeeze ranges from the smaller stacks behind. Against a UTG range we have plenty odds to direct set mine, but I also feel comfortable enough to take down pots when we dont hit sets with thee hands(A high boards versus his TT-KK range). That is a reason for keeping AJ in our flatting range, it adds merit to our other ranges when Ax comes and we can value on a lot of boards. If we dont have AJ/AQ type hands in our flatting ranges a lot of good regs can dominate you on Axx flops.
CCuster 911
Meh in fantasy worlds we get stuff like 55-66 to fold. But in reality we probably get better hands to fold very very little. That said betting is completely fine, and probably my standard in a lot of pots especially 4 way.
CCuster 911
Yep his 4 bet shove range will be wider which is the main reason for 3 ebtting to induce. Every hand that gets added to his range we are ahead of, and I dont expect him to flat and exploit enough to worry about that. I made a long post about this on 2p2 forums you can read here:
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/183/midstakes-mtt/theory-playing-bottom-your-range-20bb-tl-dr-1268110/
Its pretty math heavy but an interesting read imo and can be extrapolated to a lot of spots.
Also flatting seems a little silly unless we have a read that BB is super aggro, like really aggro, but even then it might be better to 3 bet/call his shove if he thinks we do it light.
CCuster 911
The turn call is the most questionable call imo, river seems to follow, because that river should slow him down, but he bets half pot again. Its a river that I hit more than he does believe it or not(in terms of him being able to bet). The turn call, looking back is still very questionable to me and I prob prefer just giving up(hence why I said it before I knew what I did). Theres not much he can purely float with, albeit he shouldn’t be betting that turn that often with majority of his range(Tx is a small part of his range) as I could easily just slow down with JJ/QQ type hands or even something like JT+. That said I probably default to folding turn.
However I am confused as to what you think he reps outside of maybe AT and sets. I guess 47s got there and plays like that, but thats not guaranteed in his range and his turn sizing is not standard for a lot of people turning the nuts on a dry board like that, in my experience. Weak Ts outside of 8T wont really feel comfortable betting river, and even stuff like QT has to hesitant and wonder where the value is against my range(basically 99, but 99 and 22 are the same hand here bascially).
CCuster 911
Also need to include pair+flush draws on turn and river.
jamo
At 22.02 you say you would raise/call the SB who has 11BBs (and often hear this from the pros who say you should always be raise/calling c. 10BBs) I worked it out and you’d need 37.8% equity, which you get if he’s shoving 13% or more. Do you really feel he’s shoving this wide knowing that he has no fold equity with his stack size? I just don’t think someone competent would shove K9s and KJo in this spot, and without these hands this becomes a fold since we’re not getting the right equity.
Maybe I’m getting this wrong from the SB’s perspective and should be willing to get it in in his shoes vs a MP open with a wide range???
I also feel that the whole ‘we should be raise/calling c. 10BBs’ comes from when players used to 3x and a shove would give us at least 33.3% equity or 2:1, which we could get with most hands.
CCuster 911
You make the false assumption that he has no fold equity, when he does versus 95% of players.
I also did the math and got 37.47% we need to call(call 4635 of 12370 total pot).
Also simply doing 13% in pokerstove will not yield you good results, as players dont shove the top 13% of hands against ATC(how hands are ranked in pokerstove), they shove hands based off our opening range. 13% in pokerstove has only 77+ as the pocket pairs, when in reality we probably see 33/44+ even 22+ from a lot of people.
So if you give the reshover a range like 22+,A8+,KQ, we are 34.7 so we are making a good call.
jamo
Thanks for your response, really appreciate it. I still think it’s a close spot and I’m not convinced it’s a false assumption that he doesn’t have fold equity. Let’s say he knows you and you know him… would you still be sure that he feels he has no fold equity?
Also, if you had 35BBs here, do you still make the call? I can understand that if we’re getting the right equity then the call is +cEV over time, but given the situation of a hit to your stack, would it not be a fold? 34.7% of the time we go up to 50BBs and 65.3% of the time we go down to 24BBs.
In a cash game we would call all day since we can rebuy to 100BBs if we lose, but that’s not the case in a tournament and therefore we have to be more aware of what happens to our stack if we win or lose.
Winning or losing this pot here with your stack size doesn’t really have an impact on the way you’ll play afterwards since you’ll still have a big stack win or lose, but with a shorter stack I think it becomes more of a consideration. Let me know what you think.
loxxii
yeah I like this line
loxxii
meaning the flat duggs says, not the 3bet. this thing really needs an edit feature.
loxxii
Is this what you meant in the comments of the last video when you said a lot of people dont have AK in their flatting ranges (but should)? That makes sense now.
If you’re going to be making moves post flop, then you have to flat a lot of hands you could 3bet because that’s the only way to keep your post flop range wide and therefore your post flop moves believable.
loxxii
If I just call 44-66 to set mine and it ends up 4 way, im snap folding to a flop bet. If you do call with one of these hands, what do you do WHEN (not if) an over card hits on the turn? And some one still could have a king although it is very unlikely.
All of those pairs are bluff catchers at this point and I don’t think everybody is interested in trying to catch bluffs in a multiway pot.
loxxii
marc mentioned that he might open shove A8s on the button their for 20bb. Are you calling a 20bb shove there with ATo?
loxxii
31min I think villain should be shoving the KTs pre and I would argue that villain should be shoving the A8s pre in the previous hand. They are close to the same hand to me because ne probably isnt raise folding the A8s and there are very few hands he is inducing a 3bet from that wont call a shove any way. All it does it set you up for awkward spots when some one flats (I play lower) and you miss.
My attitude now is just shove these instead of trying to eek out that last bit of EV. That way, you can add another table to your set. What this guy did with KTs could be seen as a mild case of FPS that he would not make if he was not one tabling (assuming he is not a complete fish). I think this illustrates your point about playing better with 2-3 tables.
duggs
CCuster the level of response you are giving in the comments is awesome and appreciated!