Ben Reason Premiere Series – Member HH Review (Part 2)
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MORE IN THIS SERIES : Part 1 | Part 3 | Part 4 | Part 5
Concepts In This Video: fixing leaks • HUD • Member Spotlight • Mid Stages • Pokerstars • Post-flop • pre-flop • Shoving Ranges • Single Table
Reasons14
Hey guys, here is the math stuff that I said I would post. I previously wrote this up for a few students, hopefully you guys enjoy it. Let me know if there are any mistakes. Of course, it isn’t hard to just plug stuff in to a program and see if a shove is correct or not. However, for the same reason we learn math in school (to learn how to think), I think it’s important to internalize this so that we will be able to adjust better in game.
Calculating a shove-
http://fpppro.com/fold-equity-calculator.php
situation is bb= 100 and hero is on the button with 98s
General estimate is that villains in Sb and bb will be calling with ~20%. Enter in 89s vrs 20% in pokerstove or http://www.propokertools.com/simulations
and you will see we have 36.6% equity when called.
Hero has 1k at bb= 100
Effective stack – 1000
Estimated equity when called = 36.6%
Pot size= 150 (bb+sb)
Facing bet – 100 (the bb folding around to us)
If input properly, you will see that villain needs to fold 63% of the time
In calculating how often we are getting called since we are shoving into two opponents and not just one. Multiply the %’s of the time they are folding by
eachother. So for example, since we have both villains calling 20% of the time, they are folding 80% of the time each. You do .8 x .8 = 64%. They
only need to fold 63% of the time, therefore this is a profitable shove.
For 3b shoving –
When facing a raise
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations
Hand 1 – Enter in hero’s actual hand
hand 2- Enter in villains RANGE
This can also be calculated via pokerstove.
For this hand example, we’ll be using a common blind vrs blind situation to calculate whether a 3b shoving is profitable or not.
Blinds are 500/1000/100a, so there is 2400 in the pot pot preflop. Villain is in the sb and hero in the bb. Villain min raises to 2k, hero has 19bb after
posting the big blind, do we shove k7o?
http://fpppro.com/fold-equity-calculator.php
1. Enter in 19000 (the amount you will be shoving)
2. Enter in what % equity we have when called. If villain raise calling (44+,A5s+,KTs+,QJs,A5o+,KTo+) 19.8%, we have ~33% equity when called.
3. Pot size = 900 in antes, 1k bb plus 2k min raise from sb = 3900, then we are facing a bet of 1k.
Villain must fold 59% of the time for this to be a profitable shove.
Now we estimate what % of hands/time villain is raising bvb. For this example 65% seems a reasonable raise in reg vrs reg wars.
If villain is raising 65% and calling with 20%, 20/65 = 30% which means he is folding 70% of the time, making this a profitable shove
Caluclating 4b jam
Step 1 –
http://fpppro.com/fold-equity-calculator.php
Effective stack – Enter in how much you are shoving. For ex, if you have a stack of 30k, raise 2k, villain 3b to 6k, enter in 28k, NOT 30K
Step 2 –
http://www.propokertools.com/simulations
Enter in Hero’s hand vrs villains range when we get called…So for Ex – Td 7d vrs 10% of hands will have 32.5% when called. This also works in
pokerstove just fine
Step 3 –
Enter in current size of pot. in FPP pro link provided above. For Ex – bb= 1k w 100 antes = 900 from antes + 1kbb and 500sb = 2400 in the middle
Hero raises 2k and villain 3b to 6k, you would enter in 10.4k as current size of pot.
Now enter in facing a bet of 4k
If done corect, you will end up with the answer “villain must fold 42% of the time”
So now that we know what % of the time villain has to fold, how do we conclude if he’s folding that certain amount of time?
Obviously looking at a HUD will give us a general likelyhood of his range.
When constructing a 3b bluff range mixed with value, simply click everything on stove that you would assume villains 3b range is.
In many situations, and for this example, we’ll assume villain is 3b a range that looks similar to (55+,A3s+,K3s+,QTs-Q7s,A5o+,KTo+,QTo+) which ends up
being 24%. If villain is calling with 10% of hands, and 3betting 25% of hands, he is folding that 15% in between range. Using 100 as common denom,
you can easily see that if villain is calling 10% and 3b 25%, he is calling 40% of the time and folding 60% of the time, making this a profitble shove.
subfocused
7:00 Seems like a perfect spot to bet slightly less than half of shorties stack so betting would be reopened to you if big stack flats and shortie jams…
nonsimplesimon
Thank you for your vids! Some Q’s:
@ 27:10 When we tallk about the float oft which cards ott are betting and which cards are we afraid of. Here’s what you said:
seeing how he’s this tight folding is fine – if he was a player who had a high cbet over a high sample i think a float would be good. as hands that will be flatting the initial vil scon ax sm pp in which if we just call and bet turn we are going to be able to rep an over pair like pp9s quads 8 full are all gonna be calling here as well if we did have a flush draw I would be in the camp of calling flop and raising turn because we don’t have too much in our range that we could credibly rep at this point.”
So then how deep would we have to be to make this play? How deep would the villain have to be to make this play? What cards are we NOT bluffing on? is there a minimum sample size in which we would need to make this decision? (iow would we forfeit the float if we hand only say 50 hands)?
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In the K6 @ 29:00 – is 3.5x (or around 4500) ok? I typically with a minimum iso stack say 30-50bb I typically make it 3.5 (for one limper) and up to 5.5 (of two or more limpets). Also – I [usually] follow it up with a bet of around 38% pot oft. … does this seem right sizing.
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also – I have a video request from you. Perhaps you could think about doing a hand history analysis from a deep live tourney you did? Kind of similar to the one that Brokos just did? thanks again.