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Ben “KidCardiff6” Warrington WCOOP Hand History Review for TPE Member daveyt86 (Part 4)
MORE IN THIS SERIES : Part 1 | Part 2 | Part 3 | Part 5 | Part 6 | Part 7
daveyt86
Regarding the J9s hand any heart i would have shoved, any card thats not a picture i would have shoved aswell. If a J come i would have checked incase he had AK, and if a Q come i would ave checked aswell. If a 10 come then i prob would have shoved aswell as i could have J10s A10s in my range.
What do people think about my reasoning for what i would have done bad or good?
Great analysis Ben learning so much from this series
Cheers
donkrx
I’m a little confused. A heart did come, and you didn’t shove… so are you not talking about the J9s hand in the beginning around 3:10? Also a shove would be like 2.5x pot.
Anyway, a few comments about this J9hh hand near 3:10. I’m not a fan of the Turn bet sizing for a few reasons. First of all, when he flats our raise preflop his range is very weighted towards pocket pairs TT or worse (maybe TT gets 3bet), or KQ. This is a guy that likes to 3bet a good bit so I think he 3bets 9Ts, JTs, KJ, and basically every Ax hand, if he intends on playing any of these. Just to clarify, I’m not saying he always 3bets these hands, I’m just saying if he plans on playing them here he’s gonna come in for a 3bet. I also do not expect given his tendencies and stack sizes at the table that he’d flat AQ/AK here.
So with that I feel its pretty rare he has a T or an A in his hand, but we know he’s going to call one bet on this flop with his entire range, almost always with the intention of folding to a turn double barrel. The Ah is basically the nut bluffcard for us too if we think about it from his perspective holding 99. He knows we dont have to have an Ace in order to bet turn, but assuming we bet enough he has to be afraid of all the draws (he cant know which we have) and us possibly pairing on the river. So even if he’s right that we’re bluffing the turn Ah, he’s never going to have an easy river spot.
The problem I have with betting ~1/3rd pot (45K into 122K) is that it’s really cheap (esp given his stack) so it doesn’t apply any pressure OR threaten any real future pressure on the river. It also doesnt really rep anything other than complete air. We’re not repping spades or heart draws very well because logic would say we’d bet a good bit more on the flop & turn with those to maximize fold equity. It also doesn’t rep an Ax hand very well either because 90% of the time we’d bet more if we paired it on the turn. If he thinks through our line and sizing he might start to be a lot less worried about the river (thinking we might shut down a lot) but still end up wanting to hero call on bricks because our line doesnt make a lot of sense.
Now if we bet 70-75K on the turn we rep spade draws, heart draws, and Ax very well. He really cant continue against that range because on brick rivers we could be value betting Ax or a missed draw. And on flush rivers he doesn’t know which flush we were drawing to. The bigger bet on the turn also sets up a larger potential river bet which is more pressure and more reason for him to fold now.
donkrx
Again about the J9hh hand at 3:10 – what Ax hands do we think Pokerfan89Gr is flatting with here and how often do we think he is NOT 3betting them preflop? I was thinking AJ is the only one, and he might 3bet that even.
Ben, davey?
daveyt86
No sorry donkrx im talking about the J9 hand at the end of video where i double up. Soz i should have mentioned the time
daveyt86
I see what your saying that the turn bets looks small and doesnt rep anything but i usually like to keep my bets sizing the same weather i hit or on a draw, if i bet 1/3 pot on turn when i have an A but 2/3 if im on a flush then the good players will notice that and be able to exploit that. I still think if i had the A i would still have bet the same amount 1/3 pot. If i had an AQ/AJ then i dont think i would need to bet big as i dont believe he had a strong A so if i bet smaller then he can still call with his pairs or his Ax that i beat.
This may be bad thinking but to me if i bet really big on turn just looks like i want him to fold where if i had an A i dont want him to fold. I may be wrong in thinking that but thats how i see it
I understand your reasoning tho
donkrx
Yeah, if you expect him to read into your sizing that way then it makes sense, and you do have to be careful changing sizing if you’re betting 1/3rd pot as a norm. I really wonder what he’d have done if the river bricked like the 2d and we tried to bet again. Would you be barreling river again on that card, and if yes, what would your sizing be?
And I hope you dont take the length of my post as being really critical of the hand, I just thought it was an interesting spot to think about.
daveyt86
No i dont take it critical its something we can all learn on especially someone like me. If the river bricked if still rep the A but id bet a little smaller than i did, prob bet like 50-55%. He may call if its another low card but a picture card he prob defo folds as looks like he had a small pair
Ben Warrington
Donkrx i dont think hes necessarily 3betting all his Ax hands.. Suited Ace Rag hands play ok in position.. Think he could have been slowplaying JJ-KK here