Merge High Roller Hand History Review by Marc Alioto (Part 2)
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MORE IN THIS SERIES : Part 1 | Part 3
Concepts In This Video: 3-Betting • 4-Betting • Aggression • Bet Sizing • Bluffing • Board Texture • C-Betting • Deep Stacks • exploiting tendencies • Flatting • Floating • Fold Equity • Hand Reading • HUD • Merge Network • Midstages • Note Taking • Position • Post-flop • Pot Building • Pot Control • pre-flop • Ranges • Reads • Showdown Value • Single Table • Table Dynamics • Value Betting
jamo
10:10 – 4b J9o, you talked about his 3b stats, but you only have 115 hands on the guy. He has only 3b once out of 9 hands from the BTN, and since Holdem Manager can’t give you ‘up to this hand’ stats, this is probably just the 3b that he did then, so I’m not sure we can rely on them to make bold 4b in this spot. How many hands are you looking to have for reliable 3b %?
black666
@defending 87s in BB and “math says don’t do it”: actually quite the opposite. Math dictates that you defend a reasonable range. Even at cashgames (HU, 6max) people start realizing that you can defend pretty wide since you are getting such a good price.
With the antes in play you are getting even better odds in MTTs. Considering that you always get a cbet out of the PFR you are getting an insane price to see a flop for just 1BB.
Obv you have to be careful. If you are bad postflop and go broke for 40-50bb on a K high board with KTo then it’s better to fold.
black666
@96o hand (#209): you were getting 3:1 (5k call for 15k pot) and you said that you only have to be right 1 in 3 times. It’s 1 in 4 times actually. When you are wrong 3 times, you lose 15k (3 x 5k) and when you are right you win 15k for a breakeven play.
MadBaltic
Hahaha. Such epic confidence that is funny, but good. WP sir
marc alioto
100-200, but in this situation i dont really need to rely on the HUD stats cause I have previous history from earlier in the tournament. We have gone to battle quite a bit, so the HUD becomes somewhat useless since his numbers will be way different against me. Like i said 100-200 hands is usually enough hands (at least on merge, stars 300-500) for me to have a grasp on someone’s play. I don’t live and die by the HUD too, every player has different gears based on emotions/tilt so we can be 4 betting any B 3 bet with good success imo. Obviously we must pay attention to stack sizes, but aggression is the key to success.
marc alioto
Defending 8 high OOP to a 30bb stacks open is def. frowned upon by many regs who destroy mtts. I do feel that i am a beast postflop, so i think calling is fine. POt odds say yes, but implied odds/reverse implied odds may say to fold. Either way thanks for the comment
marc alioto
Ahhh, you are right.
thanks, always looking to improve so appreciate the correction
bigdogpckt5s
Math may say dont do alot of things in tournament poker. But if your basing your game strickly on math its a major leak. There are so many other variables besides math with may dictate a flat in this spot.
marc alioto
Yeh, borderline cocky tho. Confidence is key but being cocky is plain douchey.
rizzle23
plz, do a live sweat will be epic.Love ur vids….
michae1di11on
If you get dealt cards…raise…if they raise…call/raise with a plan to own them postflop….no one ever has anything….love the game… this is what I learn from Marcs videos. It’s fantastic though, I love the enthusiam and love for the game. So much fun to watch these videos
loxxii
1) 19:30 with T9o. You say this is a good spot to 3bet. I believe this is because the opener is aggro, the flatter sets up a squeeze, and the both have stacks where they have to shove or fold. What sizing would you use here and are you concerned about having to call the short stacks?
FkCoolers
98o in BB @ 6 Min. – We already took a note on villain saying he bets any 2 when checked to but then we bet into him twice.
Seems like checking turn is better.
black666
Strongly disagree!
Most “feel players” think they play by feel instead of math but they are doing the correct things without knowing that it can be backed up by math. They may 3b because they just “know” villain is light .. other players need to do the math to see that you can profitably 3b light without villain being able to do anything about it.
Phil Ivey probably never did an EV calculation. Isaac Haxton though has studied the game inside and out and probably knows even the last bit of math. Their approaches were different (“feel” or “wing it and see” VS math and stats) but both arrived at the highest stakes crushing opponents.
I’m curious though which other variables there are that are not backed up by math (betsizing tells?)? On a training site you can only teach fundamental sound and aggressive poker which is all backed by math. So you are basically saying that paying for TPE is a major leak??
Killingbird
” On a training site you can only teach fundamental sound and aggressive poker which is all backed by math.”
Wait, what? I don’t even think YOU believe that. Seems crazy to say that we cannot help teach people how to recognize and react to game flow, table dynamics, etc.
loxxii
7:25 with 98o. You flop top pair and donk lead. Yeah this takes down the pot, but then you made a great joke about math>english and missed an obvious “later” spot. What up with that? Where’s your killer instinct? You gotta close brah!
Marc, if no one has told you this lately thank you for taking the time to come back and answer comments on your vids. You are super consistent with this and it is pretty much essential in order for the members to get the most from TPE.
loxxii
I agree with black666’s statement that a lot of the game flow stuff can be backed up by math. For example, Marc’s 4bet with J9o is a game flow thing. He knows the guy doesn’t have to have a premium to 3bet there which means his range has a decent percentage of hands that will fold to pressure. If he didnt have that game flow history, then he would have to assume the guy’s 3betting range contains a higher percentage of premiums and he wouldn’t have 4bet light.
I think he is just saying that feel aka game flow / table dynamics is just understood, unspoken math in a lot of cases.
I agreed with the comment until the double question marked rhetorical non-question at the end. It seems a little bit inflammatory and is probably why some of the pros don’t reply to comments. I hope we can refrain from these things that are not in the spirit of TPE. It was a good debate up until that point. I think everyone agrees it was a good play, but just have different interpretations of why it was good.
marc alioto
diasgree, pot was 3 way and were leading 956 and he calls in postion on flop. The only way im checking here is if my plan is to check shove turn. Not in love with that based on given stacks so i would rather barrel my top pair gutty than be in passive check/call mode.
marc alioto
Thanks chirpy, LATER
marc alioto
One thing Casey taught me that has worked thus far is paying less attention to stacks behind. I was hesitating to 3 bet deep in mtts because of stacks behind way too often. When i adjusted and realized that they need such a monster to cold 4 shove with no Fold equity, i started chipping up. I think i go 3333 here committing myself to two shorties and making it very hard for opener to flat. I know MattDB is flatting 100% of the time so im going to be double barreling most boards with air.
marc alioto
I’m all passion baby!!! I think im really working on winning pots that i used to just give up on. I want to make it difficult for people to play against me so : floatin,c/raising complete air, check/shoving river with air..3 barrell with Snickers wrappers…..etc.etc
PRESSURE ALL DAY EVERYDAY The toughest opponents i play against are the ones who dont fold and are willing to punt stack with air if they believe its the right play. Mad respect for that kind of heart.
marc alioto
What are you saying Black666? Casey style is far from Fundamentally sound poker. In fact, he is the opposite of that and I think all of TPE loves him for this He clearly knows the math, but he also defies it with his insanely good postflop ability. We can’t calculate how many times the boards gonna run out 4 strt cards, but we know Casey is willing to rep it!! ex// reps 10 with 75 in the Super Tuesday when he is barreling off. That hand puts him in a spot to win the tournament. I can’t tell you how many hands I see him play where math would say otherwise(usually fold). It all works though . Battler does the same thing, defending an 8 bb stack OOP with 72 cant be profitable right?? He defies that cause these guys that play outside the box are the best in world. I am very math based with my style (because of how much i use the HUD), but i am looking to take my game to the next level. Doesnt mean im throwing away math, or that math doesnt exist.(I agree that Math, no matter if we know it or not, will always exist in every situation, just impossible to calculate a lot of these situations). Just means i dont want my play to be dictated by ABC Mathematics.
marc alioto
coming soooooon
docs325
Can you tell me what the last two lines of you HUD are? Thanks.
FkCoolers
I just think he’s floating to float you most of the time and we already say he will bet his air so often.
I think you extract more by letting him hang himself and I really don’t ever see you getting a turn bet called unless he has 6x, which he really won’t have many of those in his range.
I feel like you’re trying to 2 barrel for value, only there’s barely any value hands in his range.
Agree to disagree on this one I guess! Don’t hate your line but think maybe we could get more another way since we have this board so locked with blockers, etc.
marc alioto
Again, its not like we are in a HU pot. If we calculated how many times someone floated a donk lead in a 3 way pot on a board that smacks the BB’s range we would see how low that % would be.
FkCoolers
In your vid you say he’s going to float just about anything.
I think he floats some backdoor equity hands like JT and he’d also call one with underpairs to the board.
Ax maybe…
I’m only inclined to check turn vs. this villain here because he keeps showing down crap. Vs. others I agree that they should have more SD value type hands. Not so sure about this guy.
marc alioto
steal % from every position, and bottom line is Cbet % on flop and turn. Also includes Villians fold to flop and turn cbet.
All these stats are amazing, make room for them and wait for a couple hundred hands before actually using them.
GLGL
rivermen123
Man I love this series!!
marc alioto
Thanks James, I am a huge fan of your game so I appreciate the kind words
ehhh7
Completely agree, donk lead flop then check turn is so much more profitable against this villain.
Players that are betting any two in 3 waypots when checked to are tge type of players who float often. There’s a reason it’s called a donk lead, because it’s so often light, he floats you here often..
Doctor Orange
Man I would learn so much more from these videos if I wasn’t steaming over the arrogance.
marc alioto
ty
shutEMdown
I been working on adapting a non standard style lately but old habits are hard to get rid of. Habits that ive had for years. But i feel like the more work i put in to confuse them, the more money im burning and thus confusing myself lol. Its hard when standard play has been successful and continues to be for the most part…but when most of the field has reached standard level of play, how do we separate ourselves from them without relying on running pure?! I think we need to think outside the norm nowadays but its not as comfortable and until I find success with it, I will second guess myself often.
marc alioto
You bring up some very valid points but everything i go over in my vids is for higher stakes mtts. Im not sure what level you are playing at, but I could always beat lower stakes playing ABC poker. I am not against ABC poker either, i just want to be the best poker player in the world and the only way to do that is to think WAY outside the box. ABC strategy will fail miserably in high stakes mtts. Wins will still come, but the players doing shit that makes little sense will always show the most profit.(It makes sense to them, but maybe not us) Adapting to your table is also very key. I’m not always doing things to confuse my opponents, some will just gift me their chips making it easy on me to just play ABC poker. its guys like Rivermen123 that i want to keep guessing. If I play against him with an ABC approach its GG me.
marc alioto
Another important note:
Its not an over-night success story. I am still working on my “outside the box mentality” and failing to be quite honest. I do know that the best players i have played against always put me to the test and confuse me. If you ask anyone who plays on US sites who the best poker player is they would all answer Thebattler34. Anyone who says otherwise is lying. He is the best at confusing opponents and adapting to villains’ playing style. ALL HAIL BATTLER
redvulture61
6.53 you said the hand with the 8,9 should be a donk lead i disagree. It should more likely be a check call in my opinion.
redvulture61
i like your style man. I hardly ever fold to 3 bets in Position.
marc alioto
why? i think anything but donk leading is bad. Explain to me your thought process pls
marc alioto
Its so much easier to play pots in position, esp 3 bet pots cause most villains that 3 bet are cbetting 90%+. We float and they check/give up most turns. We get so much information in position and will turn profit flatting if we are willing to float.