Stop Whining, Start Winning

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You’re not special.

You don’t deserve any better luck than anyone else playing poker.

Your downswing and bad beats are not unique—so stop focusing on them.

Was that mean? Sorry, but poker is a game of hard realities and the sooner you understand the three sentences above, the sooner you will be on your way to the proper mindset necessary to outlast variance, take appropriate risks and most importantly, become a profitable player.

I am fortunate to know a lot of amazing poker players—the pros on tournamentpokeredge.com for example. You know what they have in common? They understand the above paragraphs intuitively. They know that winning a tournament requires skill and luck. They know that they are going to lose most of the time and that it will probably be in some godawful way. What’s ironic is that the better you are—the more likely you will lose when you were ahead when the money went in.

But they know that in the long run, with the proper volume, they will have the cards go their way enough times to show a profit. So the beats roll off their backs.

If you are the type of person who complains about your luck and instant messages your friends constantly with your bad beats, you are probably a losing player. The reason being is that you are not looking at the big picture. Beats will come but if you focus on them it means you just aren’t grasping the long run.

So what should you take from this? How will this realization make you a better player (and better friend)? Here’s how:

Take some time and think about the true meaning of hand equity. Think about what it means to be ahead in a 60/40.

Stop, think about that for a minute.

When you flip cards over and you have something like AT to your opponent’s KJ, what does that mean? How likely are you to win?

The answer is easy—60% of the time. But that means you will lose 40% of the time! I know this is obvious math but I think our minds are programmed to look at this situation as if we should win our 60/40’s 100% of the time. We think in discrete, rather than continuous terms. If I’m ahead, I should win. If I’m behind, I should lose. No, you are more likely to lose but you will only lose according to the % over the long run. Anything can happen in the individual event.

The best players understand this and that’s why they shrug off bad beats. And they also understand how to leverage this reality to their advantage. Guess what, when you realize that you’ve always got a shot, then you can make big moves because there is always equity. EVEN IF YOU ARE BEHIND.

The pros take the equity of their hand, and then pick up a ton of fold equity through the pressure they put on their opponents. If they are wrong about their opponent’s range, well there’s always a chance at a suckout.

Now, I’m not talking about spewing and splashing around trying to bluff everyone at your table. I’m saying, think about your opponents range. Where does your hand stand against their range? Do you have the right equity to call for what’s in the pot? Will your pressure increase your equity because they fold more than then should? Because you now understand variance you can make these moves with more confidence.

So, getting back to the beats and your attitude—Ok, if you bust at a crucial time, losing AA to 77, you have a legit gripe. When talking to friends you can share the flips you lost or the beats you took. As long as you UNDERSTAND that it’s part of the ebb and flow of the game. But to be honest, if you can go weeks without sharing a bad beat—then you’re probably approaching the right mindstate for the game—and are probably starting to show significant profit. It’s how the pros approach the game.



16 Responses to “Stop Whining, Start Winning”

  9. jamart1n

    Membership fee for the month is worth it just for that article. Well written, thought provoking and hits some home truths that needed to be heard. Thanks.

  11. Mealstrom

    Good article….. A great book that goes much deeper into this subject is The Poker Mindset by Ian Taylor & Matthew Hilger…. An essential book for all serious players

  14. Bytie_nl

    If all would play like a pro and optimal in most situations, mere luck would decide the winner and render ppker to a mere game of chance generally. Indeed its the (bigger)deviation from optimal play in many spots by worse players that makes poker profitable in the long run en we have to tell ourselves after each (ridiculous)suckout villain makes: THIS is what we still want!!

    Great article sir!

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