First things first, a quick session update. Last night was pretty good overall. I had a really strong run in the $2.20 $1K GTD on AP. It only turned into a 42nd out of 595 finish when my KK lost to AQ all in pre, but I can complain. I managed to build a strong top ten stack and maintain it for almost all of the tourney (some minor dips outside of the top ten, but never in any danger). I fouled up a good run in the 4q when I called an all in by a nut job that had jammed by HJ open 4 straight times with a 70+bb stack. I tanked for virtually my whole time bank and ended up calling with 55 convincing myself that a guy running 26/8 over 63 hands with this sort of history with me couldn't possibly have the good each time. I was probably right in general, this time I was not. Ended up losing to KK and moved on. $22 Deep Stack on Stars went well for a long time, I ended up getting pretty close to the money (busted in like 40 something with 27 paying if I recall correctly). I really like that tourney (or the Stars Deep Stacks in general). They really force you to think, and with so many players that cannot make the adjustments to the longer levels you can accumulate a huge stack very early and parlay that into a very significant deep run without too much risk. Okay, enough on the session and on to the main point of today.
I was reading Hagbard's "On Tilt" article and I think he touched on something in there that warrents a little more explination. Human beings in general cannot accept random acts as being random. It is something that is built into our brains. The analytical side of your mind attempts to grapple with this concept continually whether you are aware of it or not. Everytime something happens your mind is trying to find a reason, look for a pattern, find the justification. Isolated randome events don't fit with the model that it tries to build and thus we don't accept them very well. How many times have you heard a player say that there is no way they can lose because they have been winning flips all night long, or the opposite. The deck has no memory. It is a tough concept to wrestle with. To come to grips with the fact that you fundamentally have no control over an outcome is something that makes people uncomfortable. It is a part of the thrill of gambling. To go along with it, I think Hagbard did a great job of highlighting a concept that I think players who lean on their HUDs extensively tend to forget, predictions DO NOT gaurantee frequency. I highlighted getting caught by this above. Suppose you have a lengthy history with a player (500+ hands) and you see that his stats are a 14/10. We start to make some standard assumptions about him. Very tight, very aggressive. Going to raise more than anything, only plays strong stuff (suited broadways, 66+ type stuff). How many times have you been shocked to see him pop up with Q7s and rake a big pot. It happens. Just becasue he is a 14/10 doesn't mean that he only does those things. It will be true if you carry it to infinity and look back, the hands you expect will be the dominant cards in there, but there are others.
Wrapping up for today, remember poker is random. The cards dealt are not connected. There is no conspiricy there. No grassy knowl, no matter how badly you want there to be one. The game does not have it out for you. Take a deep breath and brush it off. If you can't, let me know what table your at, I just may want to sit with you for a while. This is the Gman signing out!
Cujokhan
This is so right. The guys that play with mostly stats need to understand this. You need to play the player as well.