In Which We Begin Anew

Save for Later

One day you wake up and the game has passed you by.

Suddenly you're getting 3-bet after every open and you feel lost. You fold and they laugh. You shove and they have it. When you try to play their game they ram a 4-bet shove down your throat.

A few years ago you were printing money. Now you're heavily invested in a long-term relationship with the One Click Deposit button.

At first you told yourself you were just running bad. But how long can a downswing last before it's more than just that? You see posts on P5's and other forums where people are talking about 9 month downswings. It makes you feel better. Yours has been six months.

You're not alone.

But what if theirs is more than a downswing? Now you're confused. But you're a good player, right? It has to be variance. Has to be.

Wrong. The game evolves a lot faster than we realize. THe younger players on average are hungrier and more fearless. Those of us who started playing right after the Moneymaker effect and never really changed our games are at a severe disadvantage. Winning poker moves three years ago consisted of 3-betting the top 5% hands and simply playing like a nit in position against schools of fish.

Anyone in their first year of poker who is part of a training site and/or forum is likely better than your typical "self-taught" player who started playing around 2005 or 2006.

When I was a mid-stakes grinder on Bodog almost no one used a HUD. There were only a couple training sites and they had nowhere near the traffic they do now. I remember a pretty big pot (for me) that I played against Harrington25 back in the day and I am about 95% sure I would be looked up if I took this same line today.

10/20 NL 6 Max

Hero: $3200

Harrington25: $2800

Hero has 3s5s on Button

Harrington (UTG) raises to $60

Hero calls. Blinds fold.

Flop: 2s 5c 8h

Harrington25 bets $100

Hero calls $100

Turn: Ts

Harrington25 bets $250

Hero raises to $750

Harrington25 calls $500

River: Kh

Harrington25 Checks

Hero bets $1200

Harrington25 Folds

He told me he folded JJ and I remember thinking I would have folded, too. I tried to make my line look like a flopped set.

Harrington25 has obviously moved on to play nosebleed NL and PLO so I'm not saying he'd look me up. I think your average 1/2 reg is looking you up there and probably even raising you back on the Turn. The games have gotten so much more aggressive. And even that aside, 3s5s should be 3-bet from the button if you even decide to play it and you should expect a UTG open to 4-bet you and put you to a decision a lot of times. This is happening as low as .25/.50 from what I have seen, never mind the leveling contests taking place at 3/6 and higher.

We can thank CardRunners, Deuces Cracked, et all for this.

I had a PXF subscription a few years ago. I remember thinkinh Bel0WAb0ve was superhuman. He'd 3-bet everyone and they would just fold to him over and over again. It seemed like an easy game.

How times have changed.

Regs now play < 30 bb stacks perfectly. They have push/fold charts and excellent ranges for calling you. At a table full of regs if you miss a couple marginal +EV spots you can almost forget about having any sort of chance unless the deck slaps you across the head.

Admitting you have leaks is tough to do. Continuing to pour money into the game because you refuse to face the truth is tougher.

There comes a time to check your ego at the door if you want to get ahead so my advice is to re-evaluate your downswings to see if there is more to it than meets the eye. Maybe it's just variance. Or maybe, just maybe, there are a few leaks to plug that you never even knew were there.

Seacrest. OUT!