Every now and again, tournament poker undergoes a reasonably dramatic evolution in the approaches most commonly taken by players at the upper end of the spectrum. These evolutions filter down fairly quickly, until they’re eventually considered to be ‘standard’ by those still making their way through the learning process. Sometimes they seem bizarre or unusual to those who haven’t studied them, but eventually the logic behind them becomes clear to everyone, and we all mutually agree that they constitute ‘good poker’.
Oftentimes, these evolutions coincide with the arrival or invention of software tools that can calculate aspects of the game previously inaccessible to us. For example, one of the biggest evolutions occurring in the early days of online tournaments was the invention of the push-fold calculator, and the complete paradigm shift in tournament play that came along with it. Another one, occurring maybe three or four years ago, was the mass realization that everyone in MTTs was folding their big blind way too often to a min-raise.
The latest in this succession of evolutions in tournament strategy is something you may already have noticed – people have started leading out (not ‘donk-betting’ – it’s no longer something that indicates a weaker player) on the turn after check-calling the flop out of position. Being confronted by this play can be confusing, so let me answer a few of the questions you might have about why it’s happening.
Why is everyone suddenly doing it?
With the advent of GTO solvers and complex postflop software, players have begun to investigate the fundamental realities of postflop poker in more detail than ever before. With large groups of high-level players studying high-level concepts in intense detail, a few players at the top with the best investigative skills are beginning to understand things we simply couldn’t calculate before.
One of these recent discoveries about postflop play is that GTO solvers will actually advocate taking the ‘check-call flop, lead turn’ out of position with a surprisingly high frequency. That’s not to say we’re doing it all the time – far from it – but considering that some players would have done it with a precisely 0% frequency only two or three years ago, it’s a pretty big change.
This new knowledge has already started to filter down, but players aren’t always applying it correctly. You’ll see players imitating those they’ve already seen doing it, and doing it almost at random, and you’ll see some other players still ignoring the possibility altogether. But in order to understand how we can actually apply this new approach in the right spots, we have to know when, and why, we might consider doing it.
When should I think about leading the turn?
The situations in which a GTO solver will often advocate leading the turn after check-calling the flop out of position almost always occur when the turn card is particularly beneficial for the check-caller’s range. A great example might be when the big blind defends versus the button, check-calls the flop, and the board pairs the turn – in that circumstance, the flop check-caller’s range will usually have proportionally a lot more pair hands that just made trips than the c-bettor’s range, and thus the check-caller’s range will have gotten a lot stronger.
This principle also applies to flush-card and straight-card turns, although it’s always important to recognize the extent to which the out of position player (you, if you’re thinking of leading the turn) would actually be check-calling with a draw – on certain draw-heavy flops, certain players will be heavily inclined to do a lot of check-raising with those draws, and thus their ability to nail the turn card after check-calling will be reduced.
Leading out on total brick turn cards – whether for value, or as a bluff – is something that we’ll usually struggle to justify. There are times when we might consider doing it as a bluff – perhaps against someone we expect to over-fold in that situation, or perceive us as being especially tight – or even for value, but there’s very little chance a GTO solver would ever advocate a check-call-and-lead line on a total brick. Now that we know this, we can start thinking about how to build our ranges.
With what types of hands should I think about leading the turn?
Very often when we make a bet, our range will be at least somewhat polarized. There will be times when this isn’t true – for example, when betting on a dynamic flop with a range that usually has between 30% and 70% equity – but on the turn and river, we’re rarely going to be betting with a large number of hands that are in the 50/50 region. We simply don’t need to put more money in the pot with middle-strength hands – there’s very little incentive for us to do so, when we get all better hands to call and all worse hands to fold.
This same principle applies to leading the turn. Some players are inclined to lead the turn with middle-strength hands for reasons such as “setting their own price” or “taking away villain’s chance to bluff”, but these are all just different ways of saying “just clicking buttons”. Usually players who do this have no idea how they’re planning to respond to a raise, and if this is ringing any bells for you, you’d be well-advised to stop doing it! You’ll get yourself into a lot of trouble this way.
When we build a turn leading range, that range should include clear value-bets, and clear bluffs – it should be somewhat polarized. If the turn brings a third flush card, or a straight, or pairs the board, we should consider turning some of our weaker flop hands into bluffs, and leading out with our nut hands alongside, since villain will be very unlikely to do our betting for us on what is a scary card for them. “Giving villain a chance to bluff” is an extremely common mistake on the part of many low-stakes players, and it’s rarely a good idea. Usually in these turn spots you’ll just lose a bet, compared to leading out with a balanced range and taking the initiative in the hand.
Does this also apply to the river?
Yes, it does, although there are fewer good spots to do it. If you check-call two streets and the river hits your range particularly well, you might find it possible to construct a reasonably logical river leading range – again, using your strongest and weakest hands to do so, with your bluff-catchers serving as your check-calling or check-folding range.
One note of caution about these spots is that it’s fairly common to see weaker players take this line – check-call flop, check-call turn, lead river – with very strong hands. They slowplay two streets, but then they’re afraid of losing value if you check behind the river, so they just lead, or even shove for their whole stack. In these instances, you should probably assume strength more often than not, unless you have a particular read on the villain you can exploit.
A final thought
Leading the turn is a relatively new part of MTT strategy. You might find it difficult to implement into your game right away. But the good news is that it’s not so difficult so start incorporating it on a basic level – if the turn card looks like a good one for you and a bad one for villain, it’s time to think about leading.
If you find yourself on the other end of the situation – facing a lead – then you’ll start to realize how tricky it can be to play in these spots. It’s a lot more difficult to face a turn lead on a flush card than it is to take the easy check-behind in position and see the river. As always, we’re looking to put our opponents in those tough spots, so developing the ability to lead the turn effectively in the right spots could be a great new weapon in your arsenal.